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AUD/USD

  • #52,961
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:37pm Oct 2, 2012 9:37pm
This is an update of a chart i posted a while back. panning out nicely, especially the long position of the non-reporting longs (blue line). terrible reaction to news on QE3 and add to the mix well observed double top and candle patterns etc and you could have a perfect storm if those longs get panicy. I'm getting way ahead of myself though
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  • #52,962
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:43pm Oct 2, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting Hyperion
This is an update of a chart i posted a while back. panning out nicely, especially the long position of the non-reporting longs (blue line). terrible reaction to news on QE3 and add to the mix well observed double top and candle patterns etc and you could have a perfect storm if those longs get panicy. I'm getting way ahead of myself though
Solid Chart you got there... Good and simple chart to show why AUDUSD is destined for for 0.95, for me im hoping AUDUSD closes close to 0.95 by year end....
gave you a vouch for that chart and i've read some of yor previous posts,
just hope you would post more analysis though.... you'd make a great impact to this thread
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,963
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:46pm Oct 2, 2012 9:46pm
Hmmmm.........
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #52,964
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:46pm Oct 2, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting bguguen
Solid Chart you got there... Good and simple chart to show why AUDUSD is destined for for 0.95, for me im hoping AUDUSD closes close to 0.95 by year end....
If it heads down there, by the look of things, I don't think it would stop. I'm honestly saying .064 seems like a good level in the very far run. You'll probably think I'm out of my mind!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,965
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting bguguen
im a little different but i do use SL, on Trade entry i usually have a tight SL because i trade reversals/continuatin patterns and RSI Overbought or oversold patterns.
When i established a good profit, i shift SL down but usually down to S/R zones with a small 5-10 pip buffers.
The main thing is you have your own system and you follow it. Keep up the good work!
  • #52,966
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm
Well without wishing to sound like a smart a$$, the old blue line on my chart above will tell me... notice how they ain't long when they should be ( end of May). I can't remember what actual noise it was but the sentiment then was extremely negative and the noise very loud. No one was long.... That's when I'll be looking for a long signal in my toolbox...
  • #52,967
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm Oct 2, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
If it heads down there, by the look of things, I don't think it would stop. I'm honestly saying .064 seems like a good level in the very far run. You'll probably think I'm out of my mind!
Actually no.... i can see year end of 2013 to be around 0.85 and down each year passes...

Monthly EMA200 spotted at 0.8240 so that is my really really long term target... but 0.64 technially not impossible but that'll be really far fetched.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,968
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:05pm Oct 2, 2012 10:05pm
nzd/usd

it should go down to .8187 and then .8135 level soon
  • #52,969
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:07pm Oct 2, 2012 10:07pm
Quoting Niranj
nzd/usd

it should go down to .8187 and then .8135 level soon
sorry niranj, i dont cover the NZDUSD, but ill give it a look and tell you what i think...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,970
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:08pm Oct 2, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
If it heads down there, by the look of things, I don't think it would stop. I'm honestly saying .064 seems like a good level in the very far run. You'll probably think I'm out of my mind!
.94 - .96 is MAJOR support zone on the monthly chart which is why I would have to say .95 is a good target by year's end.

However, if we have a major *meltdown in US equities similar to 2008, then .64 could be a very realistic target! Just look back at 2008 charts.

*To be honest, I'm anticipating another market crash late 2012 - early 2013 but this is PURE SPECULATION from my behalf and I don't want to put too much emphasis on this speculative situation.
  • #52,971
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:12pm Oct 2, 2012 10:12pm
Quoting bguguen
sorry niranj, i dont cover the NZDUSD, but ill give it a look and tell you what i think...
o you dont trade that at all?

well no one was on that board so posted here
  • #52,972
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:14pm Oct 2, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting Niranj
nzd/usd

it should go down to .8187 and then .8135 level soon
From a brief look at it...
we broken back into the tradable zone 78.2%-50%
and theres nothing to keep NZD up until 0.8177, but come 0.8177 watch out... that is the H4 EMA200 and see where it is a previous S/R zones? keep an eye out for that place....
i dont know the fundies but i would guess NZD fares similar to AUDUSD.

if that clears. you can eye for that 61.8% fibo then that RED Daily EMA200 line which confluences with the blue Weekly EMA55 at 0.8020-0.8050

The ultimate knowledge of where it MAY reverse is to see at WHICH one of these S/R line the Price Reaches where RSI reaches Oversold which is below 30... you can see RSI is still floating between 70 and 30 so its still fine....
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,973
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:16pm Oct 2, 2012 10:16pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
.94 - .96 is MAJOR support zone on the monthly chart which is why I would have to say .95 is a good target by year's end.

However, if we have a major *meltdown in US equities similar to 2008, then .64 could be a very realistic target! Just look back at 2008 charts.

*To be honest, I'm anticipating another market crash late 2012 - early 2013 but this is PURE SPECULATION from my behalf and I don't want to put too much emphasis on this speculative situation.
I'm a little higher in the support zone, .0972. The white line is .0972, while the red line is the closest retrace to this line, which is the biggest gap from then on as far as demand imbalance/retraces.

4H Early june of this year.
Attached Image
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,974
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:18pm Oct 2, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting bguguen
From a brief look at it...
we broken back into the tradable zone 78.2%-50%
and theres nothing to keep NZD up until 0.8177, but come 0.8177 watch out... that is the H4 EMA200 and see where it is a previous S/R zones? keep an eye out for that place....
i dont know the fundies but i would guess NZD fares similar to AUDUSD.

if that clears. you can eye for that 61.8% fibo then that RED Daily EMA200 line which confluences with the blue Weekly EMA55 at 0.8020-0.8050

The ultimate knowledge of where it MAY reverse is to see at WHICH one of these...
thank for posting. good to see you support short sentiment too. well my main target is .8133-35. though it could bounce back from .8187. short from .8250 level, sl just above.8305
  • #52,975
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:22pm Oct 2, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting Niranj
thank for posting. good to see you support short sentiment too. well my main target is .8133-35. though it could bounce back from .8187. short from .8250 level, sl just above.8305
You can put SL at 0.8280, i very much doubt itll revisit 0.8280... if itreaches 0.8280 itll reach 0.8305 soo no point putting a SL there now.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,976
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:24pm Oct 2, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting bguguen
You can put SL at 0.8280, i very much doubt itll revisit 0.8280... if itreaches 0.8280 itll reach 0.8305 soo no point putting a SL there now.
why .8280?
  • #52,977
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:25pm Oct 2, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I'm a little higher in the support zone, .0972. The white line is .0972, while the red line is the closest retrace to this line, which is the biggest gap from then on as far as demand imbalance/retraces.

4H Early june of this year.
I'll post my chart just to show you where I'm coming from. Not saying I'm right and you're wrong, just posting my perspective.

.94-.96 acted as monthly resistance back in 2008, 2009, and again in 2010. Then in 2011 and 2012 that "zone" acted as monthly support.
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  • #52,978
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:27pm Oct 2, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'll post my chart just to show you where I'm coming from. Not saying I'm right and you're wrong, just posting my perspective.
Being close-minded is no good in the markets.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,979
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:31pm Oct 2, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting Niranj
why .8280?
Did you see my chart i posted to you?? thres a blue line at 0.8264 and that is H4 EMA55 and usually its a S/R line, now that market is below it and Fibo at 0.8246 is also an S/R tells you 0.8246-0.8264 is a S/R AREA
sooo a break above 0.8264 would invalidate reversal... 0.8264 is the one keeping the price down, if 0.8264 break 0.8305 is gona be touched... no doubt about it...

now i gave you a SL with a 16 pip buffer just to be safe from Stop Hunts at 0.8264... so its at 0.8280

because if 0.8264 breaks. its not 0.8305 thats gona be the next level of resistance, its 0.8340...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,980
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:32pm Oct 2, 2012 10:32pm
Damn. I need to get away from that E/U and concentrate on this pair more often. I could of, would of, should of, made some serious pips.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
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