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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #10,321
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:12pm Oct 1, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I am thinking. The market does repeat itself but in different forms. The chances are it may not repeat what happened during last two times exactly. If the beginning is the same, the ending could be a surprise and vice versa. IMO
only time will tell....

buy order is still on the table....let's see what happens in london open
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,322
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:31pm Oct 1, 2012 9:31pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My suggestion is not to buy expensive DVD courses. Buy books instead. Robert R Prechter's EWP is the one I would recommend. -DB-
Talking about EW.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.png Size: 59 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #10,323
  • Edited Oct 2, 2012 10:27am Oct 1, 2012 9:49pm | Edited Oct 2, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Talking about EW.
This is my version.
Edit: See the updated version.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,324
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:49pm Oct 1, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on your view. Let me put it this way. If no cut, it's up. If cut, it won't drop. If cut less, it's up. So 2/3 probability is up. Am I correct?
Cutting by a smaller amount than 25 basis points would be interpreted as having the courage of a limp squid. Cutting by more than 25 would be interpreted as panic. Leaving the rates untouched could be intepreted as meaning that a rate cut in November is a certainty.

But to answer your question, in the longer term that bank has signalled it wants the Aussie down, so although the dollar may be largely unmoved in the immediate aftermath, the bias will be in the direction that the bank wants. Your summation of the options is based on a short-term view, IMO.
  • #10,325
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:53pm Oct 1, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting pauladkinsau
Cutting by a smaller amount than 25 basis points would be interpreted as having the courage of a limp squid. Cutting by more than 25 would be interpreted as panic. Leaving the rates untouched could be intepreted as meaning that a rate cut in November is a certainty.

But to answer your question, in the longer term that bank has signalled it wants the Aussie down, so although the dollar may be largely unmoved in the immediate aftermath, the bias will be in the direction that the bank wants. Your summation of the options is based on a short-term...
So, tonight's program is named "To cut or not to cut." And, yes, I was talking about the reaction right after the news.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,326
  • Edited 11:01pm Oct 1, 2012 10:24pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
So, tonight's program is named "To cut or not to cut." And, yes, I was talking about the reaction right after the news.
Some other things to consider:

Last Months measurable Red Flag News Events for Australia:

2nd Retail sales m/m Actual -0.8%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 1.2%
4th GDP q/q Actual, 0.6, Forecast 0.8, Previous 1.4%
5th Emp. Change Actual, -8.8k, Forecast 5.1k, Previous 1.4%
5th Unemp. Rate Actual, -5.1%, Forecast 5.3%, Previous 5.2%
6th Trade Balance Actual, -0.56B, Forecast 0.30B, Previous-0.23B

Debt to gdp ratio according to Wikepedia:
Australia 30.3%
United States 104.1%

Will they raise or lower rates? We shall see.

Happy Trades,
fxstir
  • #10,327
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:29pm Oct 1, 2012 10:29pm
Quoting fxstir
Some other things to consider:

Last Months measurable Red Flag News Events for Australia:

2nd Retail sales m/m Actual -0.8%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 1.2%
4th GDP q/q Actual, 0.6, Forecast 0.8, Previous 1.4%
5th Emp. Change Actual, -8.8k, Forecast 5.1k, Previous 1.4%
5th Unemp. Rate Actual, -5.1%, Forecast 5.3%, Previous...
Based on the data, should RBA raise or lower rates?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,328
  • Edited 10:57pm Oct 1, 2012 10:30pm | Edited 10:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on the data, should RBA raise or lower rates?
They should lower rates but you can rarely depend on bankers to do what they should do.

fxstir
  • #10,329
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:42pm Oct 1, 2012 10:42pm
Hey Guys ... have been an observer for a while ... but something you all should know ... Manufacturing is dead in southern Australia ... The carbon tax on top of the mining tax along with low Iron ore prices has mining giants pulling back investment ... The labor government is slipping the country into greater debt daily the car industry is virtually giving away cars and the New House market is hurting with builders going into bankruptcy every day ... I would be amazed if rates go up ... down would be welcome but I believe they will stay as is for the time being ... We are all waiting patiently in Australia for the next election which hopefully will put proper managers back in place ...
  • #10,330
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:20pm Oct 1, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is my version.
sorry, but wave c must be 5 waves no 3 only.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #10,331
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:27pm Oct 1, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
sorry, but wave c must be 5 waves no 3 only.
l forecast RBA will down 0.25%
  • #10,332
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:31pm Oct 1, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting Herbie
Hey Guys ... have been an observer for a while ... but something you all should know ... Manufacturing is dead in southern Australia ... The carbon tax on top of the mining tax along with low Iron ore prices has mining giants pulling back investment ... The labor government is slipping the country into greater debt daily the car industry is virtually giving away cars and the New House market is hurting with builders going into bankruptcy every day ... I would be amazed if rates go up ... down would be welcome but I believe they will stay as is...
Herbie, thanks for the info. There is nothing like boots on the ground feedback.

Respectfully,
fxstir
  • #10,333
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:33pm Oct 1, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting classtutor
l forecast RBA will down 0.25%
Good call
  • #10,334
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:08am Oct 2, 2012 12:08am
Quoting fxstir
Good call
Rebound a bit and will further down in USmarket tonight. Becareful!
  • #10,335
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:11am Oct 2, 2012 12:11am
Quoting classtutor
Rebound a bit and will further down in USmarket tonight. Becareful!
Classtutor,

I was short and will hold through Frankfurt and London. May add to my positions if we get a retrace before they open.

Thanks and happy trades,
fxstir
  • #10,336
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:15am Oct 2, 2012 12:15am
Demand Take Out

Keep It Simple
2 Hours Aussie Current Supply Zone
Attached Image
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,337
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:27am Oct 2, 2012 12:27am
Quoting classtutor
Rebound a bit and will further down in USmarket tonight. Becareful!
Further rate cut in Nov. Another 0.25% cash rate cut due to continue econmic slow down in China. QE3 will make money retain in US instead of Asia to make US stocks rise. USD will remain strong. AUD will fall sharply in this coming two months.
My target is 1.0250. This is only my personal view.
  • #10,338
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:29am Oct 2, 2012 12:29am
Quoting doblece
What about "on-time" signals, for a change?

(was talking to myself. Market STILL sideways, hihi ...)
I AIM to be on-time, just appear later at times.

You can provide the "on-time signals".
  • #10,339
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:37am Oct 2, 2012 12:37am
Quoting Herbie
Hey Guys ... have been an observer for a while ... but something you all should know ... Manufacturing is dead in southern Australia ... The carbon tax on top of the mining tax along with low Iron ore prices has mining giants pulling back investment ... The labor government is slipping the country into greater debt daily the car industry is virtually giving away cars and the New House market is hurting with builders going into bankruptcy every day ... I would be amazed if rates go up ... down would be welcome but I believe they will stay as is for...

Herbie you are good at fundamental.. You would like the hardcore Aussie/Dollar thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=95260

or one with really hard core fundamentals.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=384252


Plus the Aud/Usd has been around a long time and has many experienced traders that give their clear bias without the "curiosity approach" like so many threads here on FF... Anyways.. good luck to you and many positive pips mate.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #10,340
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:41am Oct 2, 2012 12:41am
Quoting foxybunny
I AIM to be on-time, just appear later at times.

You can provide the "on-time signals".
I'll leave it to the market, LOL.
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