RBA Statement

jpy still is strongest lol

Quoting FortuneRider

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AUD is still the best currency to trade even with the rate at 3.25%. USD/EUR/CNY/JPY/AUD all looking for their currency to depreciate, but who will be the ultimate winner ?

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eqshack

Oct 2, 2012 2:10am

lol..every1 got their own shit..yesterday one dawg told me that gold will be higher then 1800 in 10 min after she went lower then 1779 - still not 1800

Quoting xdoctor

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I still don't see Gold climb up...

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eqshack

Oct 2, 2012 6:12am

yup..and nzdusd keeps going up while others go bit lower

Quoting moaf

Disliked

agreed. I do not know what is going on with NZD. Looks like another 80 pips down on AUDNZD to touch the last year low, than rebound I think.

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Gold-god

Oct 2, 2012 3:24am

Quoting ShadowZ

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It won't climb up at this time... It probably will climb only in London time and mostly in US time... But I think everyone will wait for the Friday news first before deciding going North or South... Be patient...

Ignored

Agree...
It is more likely playing around 1770-1780.

Oct 2, 2012 7:29am — Edited

NZDUSD had no volume on the way up, beware, hence there is no strengths.
Anticipate drop in the next 72 hours.Delta shows mostly sells
There are also no new high on higher volume or delta. Clear exhaustion.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...9d8b785db2.gif
COT suggest not rally, but at least consolidation. Commercials(blue) are at the bottom of the barrel. High interest rate currencies tend to bounce when that happens.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...fabf4ad5cd.gif

Oct 2, 2012 1:51pm

Quoting Sarkel

Disliked

NZDUSD had no volume on the way up, beware, hence there is no strengths.
Anticipate drop in the next 72 hours.Delta shows mostly sells
There are also no new high on higher volume or delta. Clear exhaustion.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...9d8b785db2.gif
COT suggest not rally, but at least consolidation. Commercials(blue) are at the bottom of the barrel. High interest rate currencies tend to bounce when that happens.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...fabf4ad5cd.gif...

Ignored

Did anyone used my advise? Instead of looking for each-other imperfections you guys better trade the pair. It has another 150-200pps to go, so.....

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Oct 2, 2012 1:57pm

Quoting Devilzvenom

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I am not sure why no one saw the 0.25% interest rate cut coming when it was clear that RBA was planning to reduce by 0.5% be end of the year.
Anyways my guess(before the cut) was that the cut was already priced in, however it looks like it was not!

Ignored

Dear Devilzvenom.
Do you actually think that today's whipsaw happens because of the news, really?
News - conclusion, final accord of the move. News and media are used to close the chapter, turn the page, and lock the loaded coffer.
News don't move the market. Priced in or now, news are nothing but noise that makes you lose money.
Watch and learn
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...fb12e936b2.gif

Oct 5, 2012 2:36pm

Quoting Sarkel

Disliked

Dear Devilzvenom.
Do you actually think that today's whipsaw happens because of the news, really?
News - conclusion, final accord of the move. News and media are used to close the chapter, turn the page, and lock the loaded coffer.
News don't move the market. Priced in or now, news are nothing but noise that makes you lose money.
Watch and learn
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...fb12e936b2.gif

Ignored

here were go.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/content/3c249478-4c4e-42b5-9632-e1d2c2f9444f.gif

Oct 2, 2012 4:16am

AUDUSD find support on long term rising channel (06.2011 and 09.2012 dips), we have everything priced in, so I am bullish on AUD in medium term ... swaps are huge, and AUD if you look in past 3 years is going down not longer than 4 weeks, we have already 3rd ... interest rate cut and weak China number priced in, stimulus is coming, this or next week EUR bull, what is more important election is around the corner, so be sure we will see S&P500 new tops ...

Oct 2, 2012 5:09am

Quoting eqshack

Disliked

damn NZD is strong as hell(pisses me off)lol..everytime i enter short she goes 10-20pips higher -about AUD i think we wont go higher then 1.0398 this week.I dont expect trade balance to be positive i rather see her going down to 1.0173

Ignored

agreed. I do not know what is going on with NZD. Looks like another 80 pips down on AUDNZD to touch the last year low, than rebound I think.

Oct 2, 2012 8:44am

Quoting Sarkel

Disliked

NZDUSD had no volume on the way up, beware, hence there is no strengths.
Anticipate drop in the next 72 hours.Delta shows mostly sells
There are also no new high on higher volume or delta. Clear exhaustion.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...9d8b785db2.gif
COT suggest not rally, but at least consolidation. Commercials(blue) are at the bottom of the barrel. High interest rate currencies tend to bounce when that happens.
http://beta-media.capzles.com/conten...fabf4ad5cd.gif...

Ignored

thanx !

Oct 2, 2012 10:16am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

MWUHAHAHA!!! (evil laugh)

PS: For any other person apart from the oaf Phd not saying he is wrong just know he will not trade his convictions. Lacks consistency MWUHAHAHA!!! (more evil laugh)

Ignored

grow up "noise" boy, you are so smart, the only one who has found homoscedasticity of error noise in fx market ... no matter how smart you sounds ... how about your EURUSD long at 1.31 ? (the most evil laugh).

bustech

Oct 2, 2012 6:07am

Long AUD/USD could be looking good after the close in New York.

ADD
Wait until after the selling at the Sydney open, takes about 15 mins.
Then step in against the trend, should break all support levels with stops taken out at Sydney open.

nanningbob

Oct 1, 2012 11:49pm

Where the AUD goes the NZD wont be far behind.

billv

Oct 1, 2012 11:44pm

Good stuff, I hope Aussie banks pass on the cut to mortgage holders and businesses but I doubt they will.
They'll come up with excuses and their mammoth profits will grow even more......

mypipbull

Oct 1, 2012 11:52pm

no brainer really....

jplazard

Oct 2, 2012 12:55am

96 on friday give me the number to your weed guy please.... I am short but come on this has very little basis just sounds bold

Oct 2, 2012 2:14am

It won't climb up at this time... It probably will climb only in London time and mostly in US time... But I think everyone will wait for the Friday news first before deciding going North or South... Be patient...

Quoting xdoctor

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I still don't see Gold climb up...

Ignored

Subdude

Oct 2, 2012 12:50am

Quoting ShadowZ

Disliked

After that consolidation and drop more to 170 and the final destination is 0.960 on Friday...

Ignored

Good luck with that target. It won't get anywhere near that.

Oct 1, 2012 11:39pm

sell many many

Oct 2, 2012 3:20am

wait negative news from usa. then sell aud usd or
tomorrow news trade balance aud.

greendiesel

Oct 2, 2012 5:03am

quick question traders, can anyone tell me where the pros buy and sell??on sharps spike moves or dips/highs or consolidation?

Oct 2, 2012 8:45am

Quoting eqshack

Disliked

yup..and nzdusd keeps going up while others go bit lower

Ignored

it looks like nobody wants to sell AUD now, that all.

kuncung

Oct 2, 2012 6:26pm

just relax man. we are not sick trader

KevinThomas

Oct 2, 2012 12:55am

I sold AUD but I supposed to get the BUY LIMIT ORDER at 1.0250... very strong res!!

danbo19

Oct 2, 2012 1:31am

If I knew where the strength was coming from I wouldn't have asked in the first place smart a**. I wasn't sticking with historical correllation, i was simply questioning it... I guess a better question would be why is this aud weakness causing nzd strength, besides the obvious fact that aud is down and nzd is up.

Devilzvenom

Oct 2, 2012 1:52pm

I am not sure why no one saw the 0.25% interest rate cut coming when it was clear that RBA was planning to reduce by 0.5% be end of the year.

Anyways my guess(before the cut) was that the cut was already priced in, however it looks like it was not!

Devilzvenom

Oct 2, 2012 2:02pm

In my humble opinion RBA interest rate is not news it is a scheduled event with predictable consequences. But, I hear you there are other things in play.

However, again only the AUD pairs have had a big impact today so it does point to the RBA announcement?

Quoting Sarkel

Disliked

Dear Devilzvenom.
Do you actually think that today's whipsaw happens because of the news, really?
News - conclusion, final accord of the move. News and media are used to close the chapter, turn the page, and lock the loaded coffer.
News don't move the market. Priced in or now, news are nothing but noise that makes you lose money.

Ignored

dsmi139

Oct 1, 2012 11:48pm

Quoting billv

Disliked

Good stuff, I hope Aussie banks pass on the cut to mortgage holders and businesses but I doubt they will.
They'll come up with excuses and their mammoth profits will grow even more......

Ignored

Agreed...

FortuneRider

Oct 2, 2012 4:19am

Quoting moaf

Disliked

AUDUSD find support on long term rising channel (06.2011 and 09.2012 dips), we have everything priced in, so I am bullish on AUD in medium term ... swaps are huge, and AUD if you look in past 3 years is going down not longer than 4 weeks, we have already 3rd ... interest rate cut and weak China number priced in, stimulus is coming, this or next week EUR bull, what is more important election is around the corner, so be sure we will see S&P500 new tops ...

Ignored

Totally agreed.

Oct 2, 2012 9:06am — Edited

Quoting moaf

Disliked

it looks like nobody wants to sell AUD now, that all.

Ignored

MWUHAHAHA!!! (evil laugh)

PS: For any other person apart from the oaf Phd not saying he is wrong just know he will not trade his convictions. Lacks consistency MWUHAHAHA!!! (more evil laugh)

Oct 2, 2012 9:22am

Of course for me news is noise - In my view of the market - I do not need to know why price "might" move I just need to know where price is headed. Of course after the fact (and being human) these "lagging" cause and effect type explanations (news/"fundamental" analysis) have a place. But in fact and in reality many different people (and now machines) place different types of orders for all kinds of reasons at different points in time and the market does its primary job of aggregating by sign which side (sellers or buyers) have it at any time t.

The result usually is tradeable market moves of varying duration - which we try (however which way we know how - to take advantage of). Very interesting though about the fact of robots which seem to have complicated the picture even more lately. Happily they do seem slower and limited in effect in the forex given that there are no xchanges in the forex so that even with high-speed connections access time would still (I think) be relatively slower and strategies probably limited to event type algos. What do you guys think?

BTW: Risk is headed up in the days ahead in my estimation. Looks like the down phase is over for now. Happy trading.

Oct 2, 2012 12:10pm — Edited

Quoting moaf

Disliked

grow up "noise" boy, you are so smart, the only one who has found homoscedasticity of error noise in fx market ... no matter how smart you sounds ... how about your EURUSD long at 1.31 ? (the most evil laugh).

Ignored

Dicey entry because from the way I see it there may be some turbulence at 1.31714 since we should move up to that level from the current low (without too much hassles really). But let us watch and see since we are just in the first phase of takeoff.

BTW: No one need Know the Gauss–Markov theorem to appreciate my point. Lets just say it is evident day in day out. News is noise.

Oct 2, 2012 4:37pm

Quoting Devilzvenom

Disliked

In my humble opinion RBA interest rate is not news it is a scheduled event with predictable consequences.

Ignored

I like the distinction made plus the fact that anything that is likely to directly impact on intermarket flows - does get wide attention and probably affects positioning directly (in my humble opinion).

mima

Oct 3, 2012 1:07am

Quoting moaf

Disliked

... how about your EURUSD long at 1.31 ? (the most evil laugh).

Ignored

Couldn’t resist: Are you saying that hardon Loadedgun bought EURUSD at the top? No wonder why he is founder of COI....But that is absolutely OK ...Has to transfer money to those who knows to trade...

Oct 3, 2012 2:05am

Quoting mima

Disliked

Couldn’t resist: Are you saying that hardon Loadedgun bought EURUSD at the top?

Ignored

Actually, I entered @ 1.28039 but moaf (which according to his profile stands for mother of all forex - whatever that means in view of his admitted performance) is a bit like you in that he is a pathological liar (but clearly nowhere as sick as you are).

He is out to score points (to sooth his ego) after it became clear that some of his claims (as to holding a Phd) is clearly suspect (and I found him out. first he said it was in applied statistics then he slipped elsewhere and said it was in applied econometrics - on which caught him out). Notice his attempt to use a common concept in statistics to justify some schooling in the subject - and applied it wrongly, i.e. homoscedasticity - but in fact I thought he was asking to know if he should enter at 1.31 (my error and thanks for pointing it out) and notice I was trying to be helpful by pointing out to him (if it was his intention) it might be dicey to do so that late.

So no joy for mima and his good friend moaf the oaf Phd. Frankly it does not matter what qualifications you hold - if it is not in practical trading it is no advantage. But why moaf has to lie to impress others beats me (as well as lie against others like the 1.31 issue). But you might know - he appears to be your best friend here - though for his sake I sincerely hope you are not two of a kind - to be like you mima would be a curse.

BTW: And this is from his profile - he claims to have traded successfully "against the Bank of England" I guess he is our own very "Soros" in view. But I think people will understand now why he is to my mind a pathological liar - evident from his oversized ego and false claims to match. moaf the oaf Phd.

Oct 2, 2012 12:23am

It won't stop going down until it reach 270 at least... After that consolidation and drop more to 170 and the final destination is 0.960 on Friday...

Oct 2, 2012 1:06am

Watch London time 1 more hour... It will push AUD more under 290...

Oct 2, 2012 1:39am

lol stop fighting guys... We're here to support each other... Best luck to all of traders... Hope we're making nice pips here...

phamvang007

Oct 1, 2012 11:44pm

Sell stop! I succeeded.

danbo19

Oct 1, 2012 11:54pm

where is this NZD strength coming from? Why does it react to this news strong against the USD while the AUD shot south, I'm not used to this sort of correlation.

Oct 1, 2012 11:34pm

have drop many

Oct 1, 2012 11:36pm

I predicted this last month. Yay me

ForexCoatl

Oct 1, 2012 11:37pm

crazy move on EUR/USD due to RBA St

Zerd

Oct 1, 2012 11:45pm

Quoting phamvang007

Disliked

Sell stop! I succeeded.

Ignored

lol i think drop many guy

Looi

Oct 1, 2012 11:46pm

Sell AUD for the whole week! $$$$

hss

Oct 1, 2012 11:56pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

How can he spk about the euro and US growth ????
wht s th logic ????

Ignored

interest rates are laid on the people of the country reflecting local and global economy

ForexCoatl

Oct 2, 2012 12:01am

danbo19 , I think technicals were opposite to news. and yes I agree AUD/USD 70 pips move? otheres didnt move that much ...

Will correct uptrend eventually

FortuneRider

Oct 2, 2012 12:06am

With this interest cut and China stimulus package, we shall see growth soon. Not a bad news for Aussie either.

Trader#B252

Oct 2, 2012 1:25am

Right pair to trade this news is audnzd. Do you know where nzd strength is coming from? It's from aud mate. Smart money is doing this for weeks. So do not stick with historical co relation stuff. Good luck people

FortuneRider

Oct 2, 2012 1:54am