AU Cash Rate

Has the Reserve Bank of Australia really finished hiking rates, or are markets getting ahead of themselves? Matt Simpson, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down why the RBA's decision to hold rates at 4.35% may matter less than the economic data due next week. With inflation still too high, growth slowing, and policymakers reluctant to signal victory, upcoming CPI, employment, and household spending figures could determine whether the Australian dollar extends its decline or finds fresh support. Matt also shares his outlook for ...

The Australian dollar led major FX gains on Monday as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal boosted risk appetite. With the RBA and BOJ both set to announce policy decisions, traders now face a critical test for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD. The Australian dollar was the strongest FX major on Monday thanks to the risk-on tone driven by hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran. Those hopes have yet to be derailed by fresh escalation in the conflict, unlike previous reported agreements. That has helped Wall Street indices hold on to their ...

The Australian dollar dipped its toe into the upper 60s last week, although for now it is not ready to commit to a break below 70c. And while it mostly finished lower against its major peers, its performance was mixed and not akin to a currency in freefall. Although short bets rose in the futures market, we have also seen a sufficient reduction in long exposure to entertain the idea that the Australian dollar is not yet ready to fully roll over — unless monetary policy expectations between the RBA and Fed diverge meaningfully ...

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank to hold its cash rate steady for the remainder of 2026 following the third consecutive 25 basis point hike that lifted the official rate to 4.35% in May, though the bank cautioned that a further move in August could not be ruled out. The RBA's Monetary Policy Board voted 8-1 in favour of the May increase, a broader consensus than the 5-4 split that delivered the March hike. CBA said the decision itself was in line with expectations, but characterised the accompanying messaging ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, an outcome that was widely expected. The decision was made by an 8–1 vote, and the Governor’s comments were described as leaning towards a pause. A move above 0.72 in AUD/USD was described as needing broader US Dollar weakness in the near term. The article also referenced hawkish dissents at the US Federal Open Market Committee and resilient US data as factors that may limit such US Dollar weakness. The Australian Dollar outlook was framed as ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its Tuesday meeting, according to National Australia Bank, with updated forecasts set to accompany the decision that point to a higher terminal rate than previously projected as energy-driven inflation narrows the central bank's room to manoeuvre. The move, if delivered as NAB anticipates, would return the cash rate to the level that prevailed before the RBA began cutting through 2025, effectively unwinding that easing cycle in its ...