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  • #10,301
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:50pm Oct 1, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Thanks. Is it 11:30 PM EST?
0.30 AM I think

Do you think RBA will cut the interest rate? In my opinion no, we are too close to the QE announcement..
  • #10,302
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:54pm Oct 1, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting mikijk3
0.30 AM I think

Do you think RBA will cut the interest rate? In my opinion no, we are too close to the QE announcement..
Agree. QE3 is on the table. RBA may be able to wait a little bit longer.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,303
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:59pm Oct 1, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting Stimulus
Things that make you go hmmm... Projections to ponder.
Great charts!
Show Me Your Pips!!!
  • #10,304
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:07pm Oct 1, 2012 5:07pm
This was the market reaction to the last rate decision:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ratedecision.png Size: 74 KB


In my opinion if market has already priced in any rate cut we could see a similar reaction to the September 4, but I don't think it's so, the reason of this descent coulde be just a retracement of the market for the entry of new buyers or the reaction to the current riskoff due to concern over Spain...

If RBA, tomorrow, will not cut the interest rate we could see this scenario:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audUSD.png Size: 65 KB
  • #10,305
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:22pm Oct 1, 2012 5:22pm
And also it could form an ABCD pattern..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yauss.png Size: 67 KB


Even if in my opinion it will not form because it will be interrupted in the following month by the real rate cut decision..
  • #10,306
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:43pm Oct 1, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting mikijk3
And also it could form an ABCD pattern..

Attachment

Even if in my opinion it will not form because it will be interrupted in the following month by the real rate cut decision..
My view is that this scenario is highly possible. The peak may be reached before next rate decision. The rate cut would start a bear run.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,307
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:49pm Oct 1, 2012 5:49pm
Quoting mikijk3
And also it could form an ABCD pattern..

Attachment

Even if in my opinion it will not form because it will be interrupted in the following month by the real rate cut decision..
Aesthetically that would indeed be a logical continuation.

However, thanks to your chart I could spot another point of view in the form of a descending channel, which also has already 4 points ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: channel.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #10,308
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:52pm Oct 1, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting doblece
Aesthetically that would indeed be a logical continuation.

However, thanks to your chart I could spot another point of view in the form of a descending channel, which also has already 4 points ...

Attachment
Mama, I really don't think this is going to be the case.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,309
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:28pm Oct 1, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Mama, I really don't think this is going to be the case.
The only thing that I can be 100% certain of ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bullbeartops.gif Size: 28 KB


Bull and Bear nagging all the way!
  • #10,310
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:33pm Oct 1, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting doblece
The only thing that I can be 100% certain of ...

Attachment

Bull and Bear nagging all the way!
Is Halloween one month away from today?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,311
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:45pm Oct 1, 2012 6:45pm
I shouldn't have done it. I called my bank and told them to deposit a .618 retracement into my bank account. They hung up the phone on me.
  • #10,312
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:06pm Oct 1, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting doblece
Aesthetically that would indeed be a logical continuation.

However, thanks to your chart I could spot another point of view in the form of a descending channel, which also has already 4 points ...

Attachment
Uh Oh DB, We got us a legit kinda argument here, Uh oh !!!

  • #10,313
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:11pm Oct 1, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What time is the RBA rate decision?
Well, when is it ??? What day??? The only thing I see here on this site is something that concerns the JY. Thats it.
  • #10,314
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:18pm Oct 1, 2012 7:18pm
Rate cut in 4 hours. 5:30pm NZ time

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=oct2.2012
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #10,315
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:20pm Oct 1, 2012 7:20pm
Hi Daddy Bear, or DB as you are called.

Me and my dad, eliteincome both actively view your forum. We have been trading for 2 years now and have started with sufficient capital to trade successively and longer term.

We have done all the free courses.. Babypips.com as an example.

What sort of advice do you have to offer?
Any would be greatly appreciated.

Regards


John Gray
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #10,316
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:34pm Oct 1, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting John Gray
Hi Daddy Bear, or DB as you are called.

Me and my dad, eliteincome both actively view your forum. We have been trading for 2 years now and have started with sufficient capital to trade successively and longer term.

We have done all the free courses.. Babypips.com as an example.

What sort of advice do you have to offer?
Any would be greatly appreciated.

Regards


John Gray
My suggestion is not to buy expensive DVD courses. Buy books instead. Robert R Prechter's EWP is the one I would recommend. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,317
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:09pm Oct 1, 2012 8:09pm
my outlook for tonight....

buy at 1.0320 tp 1.0405

look at last 3 weeks pa starting from 3/4 into week and ending week later...we repeated same pattern for twice now and we are now finsihing the right of W.

sorry cant draw any into my files...so limited...but you get the picture of what i'm trying to say....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auwpattern.gif Size: 31 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,318
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:28pm Oct 1, 2012 8:28pm
RBA could cut rates, in an attempt to reduce the high Aussie dollar and thereby help local industries, as well as putting mortgage money in the pockets of Aussie homeowners.

But the market seems to have priced that probability in, so RBA may not get the bearish result that it wants.

Or they could leave rates unchanged, but that would likely lift the exchange rate, further punishing local industry. Manufacturing in Australia is already on its knees, and in some cases - automobiles, aluminium for instance - is getting government handouts to survive.

One headline called it a "coin toss" as to whether RBA will cut or not. Let's hope they use more scientific methods.

Late edit: rate decision is at 2.30pm Sydney time, 12.30pm Beijing time.
  • #10,319
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:58pm Oct 1, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting pauladkinsau
RBA could cut rates, in an attempt to reduce the high Aussie dollar and thereby help local industries, as well as putting mortgage money in the pockets of Aussie homeowners.

But the market seems to have priced that probability in, so RBA may not get the bearish result that it wants.

Or they could leave rates unchanged, but that would likely lift the exchange rate, further punishing local industry. Manufacturing in Australia is already on its knees, and in some cases - automobiles, aluminium for instance - is getting government handouts to...
Based on your view. Let me put it this way. If no cut, it's up. If cut, it won't drop. If cut less, it's up. So 2/3 probability is up. Am I correct?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,320
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:06pm Oct 1, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting gnomoneey
my outlook for tonight....

buy at 1.0320 tp 1.0405

look at last 3 weeks pa starting from 3/4 into week and ending week later...we repeated same pattern for twice now and we are now finsihing the right of W.

sorry cant draw any into my files...so limited...but you get the picture of what i'm trying to say....
This is what I am thinking. The market does repeat itself but in different forms. The chances are it may not repeat what happened during last two times exactly. If the beginning is the same, the ending could be a surprise and vice versa. IMO
daddybearforex. com
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