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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,481
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:52am Oct 1, 2012 7:52am
Quoting shahab8b
NU: no trade on Kiwi for me, but I'm posting this chart to show usually you don't need more than a fib and a few S/R lines.
Why not, don't u think that PA will continue his downward move to 38.2 Fibo.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,482
  • Oct 1, 2012 2:13pm Oct 1, 2012 2:13pm
Hi Shahab. Nice to see you posting again. Really like your charts. Very easy to understand and you make it look so easy ! Just a few questions:

What TF do you mainly trade. Daily, H4, H1 ?

Also how would you describe your trading method (without the use of COT analysis), is it mainly touch trades off Fib and S/R levels (confluence of bot) ?

How do you determine you stop loss placement ? Is it a fixed number of pips or above bar highs/lows etc ?

If you dont mind me asking, whats your win rate and average percentage gain per month ?

Many Thanks
Dan
  • #5,483
  • Edited 3:02pm Oct 1, 2012 2:33pm | Edited 3:02pm
Hey Shahab, would appreciate your thoughts on this setup .

EUR/NZD 4h

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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E/U 4h

If and when we get down there that is...

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cheers
Dan
  • #5,484
  • Oct 1, 2012 2:56pm Oct 1, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting bassramy
Why not, don't u think that PA will continue his downward move to 38.2 Fibo.
What I meant was that I didn't have any trade on Kiwi. But I think I might take this long here, good RRR. If .8265-70 fails, the next trade will be long at .8190-.8200.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu 3u.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #5,485
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:05pm Oct 1, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting dan89
Hi Shahab. Nice to see you posting again. Really like your charts. Very easy to understand and you make it look so easy ! Just a few questions:

What TF do you mainly trade. Daily, H4, H1 ?

Also how would you describe your trading method (without the use of COT analysis), is it mainly touch trades off Fib and S/R levels (confluence of bot) ?

How do you determine you stop loss placement ? Is it a fixed number of pips or above bar highs/lows etc ?

If you dont mind me asking, whats your win rate and average percentage gain per month ?

Many...
Hi Dan,
Thanks for the kind words. I usually trade based on 4 hr chart, but always keep in mind the trend in daily and hr. I have14 different trading models that I developed myself, but the classic trades are based on fib, S/R,and RSI div. SL depends on the setups but usually calculated in pips based on the standard deviation. The win rate is around 65-66%.
  • #5,486
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:09pm Oct 1, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting dan89
Hey Shahab, would appreciate your thoughts on this setup .

EUR/NZD 4h

Attachment

Attachment

E/U 4h

If and when we get down there that is...

Attachment

Attachment
Cheers
Dan
The EURNZD looks OK, but I usually don't trade any crosses except EURGBP. The EU setup is great, but keep in mind that's what everyone's looking at so it might not get there.
  • #5,487
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:16pm Oct 1, 2012 3:16pm
Another chart / setup. I like the look and confluence of Fib and s/r on this one -long trade. Again if price gets there. Whats your thoughts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01-10-2012 23-13-32.jpg Size: 61 KB



Cheers
Dan
  • #5,488
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:17pm Oct 1, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
The EURNZD looks OK, but I usually don't trade any crosses except EURGBP. The EU setup is great, but keep in mind that's what everyone's looking at so it might not get there.
Thanks for the reply mate. I was just wondering why you think the E/N setup is 'OK' but not great. Is it because of the fact it is a cross or is it more to do with the tech analysis itself. One of my problems is not being able to spot a great setup so im always willing to learn how the more experiened traders like yourself do it.

Cheers
Dan
  • #5,489
  • Oct 1, 2012 3:18pm Oct 1, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting dan89
Another chart / setup. I like the look and confluence of Fib and s/r on this one -long trade. Again if price gets there. Whats your thoughts

Attachment


Cheers
Dan
That's a very good one.
  • #5,490
  • Oct 2, 2012 3:43am Oct 2, 2012 3:43am
aud usd............
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one secret in the forex. im belive.
  • #5,491
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:19am Oct 2, 2012 7:19am
Quoting shahab8b
What I meant was that I didn't have any trade on Kiwi. But I think I might take this long here, good RRR. If .8265-70 fails, the next trade will be long at .8190-.8200.
NU: the long trade went well, jut not hit the TP
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,492
  • Edited 7:37am Oct 2, 2012 7:24am | Edited 7:37am
Quoting shahab8b
NU: the long trade it went well, jut not hit the TP
I know, i took it too but set my Limit order at the 23.6 Fibo, I feel like shorting to the 61.8 with the H1 trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,493
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:47am Oct 2, 2012 7:47am
Quoting bassramy
I know, i took it too but set my Limit order at the 23.6 Fibo, I feel like shorting to the 61.8 with the H1 trend.
Good trade
As for your short, it may work out or not, but I don't get the reason behind your trade, would you care to elaborate?
  • #5,494
  • Edited Oct 3, 2012 6:23am Oct 2, 2012 7:55am | Edited Oct 3, 2012 6:23am
Quoting shahab8b
Good trade
As for your short, it may work out or not, but I don't get the reason behind your trade, would you care to elaborate?
2 Bearish shooting stars on resistance on the D1 TF, gives the impression that the bullish trend is over and a trend reversal is in place, a rejection of the PA on a strong resistance with a bearish long wicked pinbar on H1, i will go short after these more than enough bearish candlesticks on resistance signals.
Divergence on RSI on the D1 and I forgot the Long term down Trendline that these Shooting stars formed below specially the second one.

We will see how it will work out.
Your opinion is appreciated.

Regards,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,495
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:02am Oct 2, 2012 8:02am
Quoting bassramy
2 Bearish shooting stars on resistance on the D1 TF, gives the impression that the bullish trend is over and a trend reversal is in place, a rejection of the PA on a strong resistance with a bearish long wicked pinbar on H1, i will go short after these more than enough bearish candlesticks on resistance signals.
Divergence on RSI on the D1.

We will see how it will work out.
Your opinion is appreciated.

Regards,
B.R.
OK, good reasoning. I just wanted to know how you think through your trade decisions. good luck with the trade.
  • #5,496
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:24am Oct 2, 2012 8:24am
Quoting eslami
aud usd............
That's not a vary safe trade imo, it has clearly taken out the S at 1.033.
  • #5,497
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:28am Oct 2, 2012 8:28am
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade as expected
EU: moving SL and locking into profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,498
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:36am Oct 2, 2012 8:36am
Quoting dan89
Thanks for the reply mate. I was just wondering why you think the E/N setup is 'OK' but not great. Is it because of the fact it is a cross or is it more to do with the tech analysis itself. One of my problems is not being able to spot a great setup so im always willing to learn how the more experiened traders like yourself do it.

Cheers
Dan
Hey Shahab8b, just wondering if you could help me out with this question please.

Cheers
Dan
  • #5,499
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:45am Oct 2, 2012 8:45am
Quoting dan89
Hey Shahab8b, just wondering if you could help me out with this question please.

Cheers
Dan
I think the S turned R (and vice versa) levels in crosses (with the exception of major crosses like EG, EUCHF, EJ, and AUDEU) are not as reliable as majors. But I have not been looking at them very often so my opinion might be biased.
  • #5,500
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:55am Oct 2, 2012 8:55am
IBM: time to short? may be!
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