AUD/USD

Has anyone attended a Pro Traders Club workshop. The ones conducted by Chris Lori. Are they any good?, what are the online versions like?
He seem to talk alot of sense.
Any views appreciated.

FEB 6, 2012 4.25% Upside Surprise
Apr 30 2012 3.75 lowered from 4.25%
JUNE 4, 2012 3.50% Lowered from 3.75%

CHINA
PMI 51 Feb 29 2012
PMI 53.3 Apr 30 2012
PMI 50.2 June 30 2012

CHINA
GDP Jan 16 2012 8.9%
GDP April 12 2012 8.1%
GDP July 12 2012 7.6%

AUSTRALIA
Trade Feb 1 2012 1.71B
Trade Apr 3 2012 -0.48B
Trade Jun 7, 2012 -0.20B
Trade Sep 6, 2012 -0.56B

AUSTRALIA
GDP q/q Dec 6 2011 1.0%
GDP q/q March 6 2012 0.4%
GDP q/q June 5 2012 1.3%
GDP q/q Sep 4 2012 0.6%

Everyone who is saying 1.10 or higher you have to look at the fundamentals even if you’re a technical trader because here is what we know now as Fact. I just don’t see AUD/USD 1.10 or higher unless Demand picks up in Mining or China makes a miraculous turnaround with their stimulus which I agree has not taken full affect yet. Or the coming cuts signals a fresh spree of growth from Australia with cheaper credit but you also have to worry about the foreign capital will they still stick around?

1. All the big Central banks are in with Stimulus, China can come in with additional Stimulus but it will be like the 2008 package which will add a few GDP’s on AU but it will too fade quickly after a few months.
2. Look at the The Metals when AUD/USD topped out at 1.1079ish and see where there at now including Coal and Iron ore. Gold is not a true correlation with AUD/USD and has not been for several months if it was than you would see a better degree of performance from AUD alongside with Gold.
3. Fundamental numbers for Both China and Australia in the Trade and Output sector were far better at the high than today. World GDP was higher also now most countries are in Contraction much more than Aug last year.

I am in the cut camp tonight for several reasons but mostly because interest rate sensitive sectors are screaming for cuts and it has been showing in their earnings for 3 months now

I agree with you JP but here is my caveat. I am just passing this on because I have not seen these facts myself. I was always wondering what has kept the AUDUSD above parity or even better above .9500 because all of the above argues for a lower AUD. However I was told that many offshore investors are investing in Australia and therefore keeping the AUD above the correlation parameters. Now if the Chinese actually have a huge stimulus planned as leaked then Australia will be one of the great benefactors and give the RBA the excuse to do nothing for another month.

may i ask why do you think Australia is so attractive in terms of foreign investors?
have you read the new recently? Australia's Iron industry is slowing down due to a slowdown from China.. Without China's Demand Australia cannot survive at such high exchange rates... simply because China is not demanding as much of Australia's Export Anymore...

Like I said I do not know that. However, there are some huge commodity type businesses in Australia which could be attractive and also the last Chinese stimulation worked well so why would it not do the same again even though QE3 is not working so well.

Never underestimate the "Carry Trade."

*Due to the fact that a .25% rate cut has already been priced in roughly 65% during the past few weeks if they cut rates the AUD should weaken.

However, if they DON'T cut rates, I would expect a quick spike upwards.

Obviously if they cut rates, the longer term trade will be to short, but if they don't cut rates today, I would expect a violent spike towards the upside later today.

Often times fundamental data moves in correlation with the technicals, and right now the AUD is gaining strength against CAD, GBP, NZD. Also has formed nice support against the USD...

Although I am bearish long term on the AUD, I am expecting rates to remain unchanged this month which in turn will cause the AUD/USD to rise.

Target: 1.05 - 1.06

**Remember, the AUD strength doesn't necessarily come from their fundamental side of things. It is more than likely due to all of the recent USD bashing from all of the FED's excessive printing.

I agree with the above statement no cut tonight than expect a big short cover from swap and forward market which will hit spot and futures for sure..

Hi JP,

That's what I'm thinking, however, the $1,000,000 question is will they cut...?

Good luck to all and trade safe!

If your like me and hate CNBC US when they argue with 6 or 7 ppl talking at once its much worse watching CNBC Asia when 5 Aussies talking on rates all cutting in back and forth - *mute

I've never seen CNBC Asia... But I think I'll pass as CNBC US is too much for me as it is. LOL

I do Envy Australian men if the women are like this there...Now back to work you guys get distracted too easily jeez

Market pricing for RBA rate cut today now pulled back to 64% after 80% yesterday

As the currency rises ahead of rate decision it negates upside risk as market will then focus on Nov.
Don't be fooled - Unemployment is evident, China is slowing and the govt has lost control of the economy by borrowing recklessly.

1.0330 the key support.

woooooooooooooooooooooo. she is hot.

I'll be straddling.

Smokin'
If my memory serves me correctly,they were all like that on my Contiki back in '88, after a few Kerosine flavoured Schnapps

Jp, you've distracted me from this anticipation of the rate decision. Thank you.

market waiting for thrill seekers (RBA) ,

my game plane

1. rate cut - sell
2. hold , wait for comments
3. rate hike - dreaming too much , time for wake

I have a feeling it's not gonna happen...