AUD/USD

· News points for the week



The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index added 2.8 points to 4,387.0, for an overall 7.1 per cent gain in the third quarter.
· Investors remained cautious on China, Australia's biggest resources customer, as Fitch Ratings cut its 2012 growth forecast for China from 8 per cent to 7.8 per cent. After halting production at a loss-making plant, China's biggest listed steelmaker Baoshan Iron & Steel expressed doubt that attempts to prop up the slowing economy would revive demand in the world's biggest metals consumer
· Car makers reel under $A pressure
· Subdued credit leaves room for rate cut

· House Prices Surge in September
· For the First time in 2 months AUD 10-yr fell below 3%
· BHP Request extension to Olympic Dam Agreement but how to fund not sure
· Australians ready to buy homes still
· Retail Sector NEEDS a cut desperately. David Jones (Department store) profits fell
· Standard & Poor’s Downgrades South Australia (Credit rating now at A from AA+)
· West Australia cuts Costs on deficit Fears
· Anglo American (3rd Largest Coal producer) cuts coking coal output
· China shuts down another Steel Mill on losing operations call in AU
· Reasons for a Rate Cut -Yes argument
· Reasons for a Rate Cut-No argument
· Australia-Malaysia FTA (free trade agreement) takes effect next year
· Factory shutting down 50 jobs gone
· Population data jobs rise
· Australia wealth jumps by 325B since March???
· Miners Merge for increased synergy
· Budget fix needed to avoid shock
· Oil and Natural gas takeover plays in Australia
· Au Borrowers in a hurry to pay off mortgages
· RPData weekly House Price update

Hi all This is my analysis for the following weeks..

Next week will be crucial for this pairs with the rate decision from RBA in tuesday.
Market has often reacted reaching the Support/Resistance and then bouncing back as the graph below shows.
In the current year when RBA left the rate unchanged price has fallen 57% of times (4 to 7, I have not considerate the date of the cuts)



In any case, these is my simplified forecast..




Good luck :nerd:

The bottom line is not as strong as the top line. Reason is because the bottom's R/R is not as a strong as the top, and its base may be too small.

15M AU

The Chinese HSBC PMI figures are concerning as of late and could signal a significant slowdown in AU.

Just read this in another thread:

In my earlier posts, I indicated S2 could be the point of return. Those big boys like to chase underdogs to the corner. I guess they have some mindset problems. If my chart reading is correct, 1.1031 could be reached on 10/17/12. IMHO


Can ppl seriously by this slow. I am amazed even to this day ppl calling crap that has little bases or argument. Now normally I respect ppl and their opinions but this is got to be the most outrageous statement ever... I agree that AUD/USD is a bit oversold and could see a mild move back to 1.05 if RBA does not cut in October but 1.10 what!!! lets just say 1.20 or 1.30 heck lets make it 2 even. I will take the other side all day late October on this call.

lol

Hey guys. The aussie situation update here. Didn't put any TP orders on Friday and that might be a slight mistake. TP2 @ 1,0330 has been reached tonight and no actions from my side as I was simply asleep. Will hold the position for some time. Todays PA should show more. And even if the main move of the day stays 'UP' for the day - my SL is safe. 2% (75 pips) floating.

Long @ 363

exitL 78

short @ 376

AUDCAD is currently within a rising channel. It is now holding at point 4. As long as point 4 holds, look to go long.

Long above 1.0200
Stop loss below 1.0170
1st target profit 1.0260
2nd target profit 1.0300

http://i49.tinypic.com/mr5zi8.png

exitS @ 384

Hidden divergence on H1 chart with the a spike in a 4h supply zone..

What do you think?

Hi Mikjik,
4H is slightly bullish for me. Want to see the price remain>380. If not preference for scalp short. anyway only scalp for me untill break of the range.

the Ben is done FADE THE HOPIUM. If we close above the open on hourly EOD than yes the market can test higher. I am on the opposite end of this spectrum and fading the hype for a retest of the lower range pre NY.

PS. Dollar Index still has not broken and CLOSED the uptrend so that is further confidence there

The fade opp did not come at least not in AU. The floor is in it looks like ahead or RBA if they Cut the position trade and size are coming in all the way into Dec. Currently flat ahead of the announcement looking for a cut but they could hold off one more month but looking at retail profits and their plea to the RBA it would be wiser to cut now instead of NOV ahead of shopping season

Hi JPLazard,
"The fade opp did not come at least not in AU."
what does it mean ?

The market was having a big move upwards when Ben came out than we came well off the highs moving lower into the close along with AAPL. I was looking for AU to follow through with ES but failed to realize that no big move either way was going to occur the night of Minutes. This market looks oversold on AU and if we get a cut it will clinch an move lower but no cut and I am on the short fence until the later half of October when they cut in Nov.

If we do get a cut than the ABC is valid and my personal targets for a position trade will be 1.0272 1.0220 and than the final target at 1.0050
Still trading at great support but we break below than the move lower is clinched.

No cut than we retest 1.05 most of October maybe even higher however at the end of October I am a seller again for the November cut.

FROM ANZ:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-c...st-300x252.png

We think iron ore prices are settling down and should trade in USD100-110/t range for the next 3-6 months, while the steel inventory overhang and uncertain China demand profile remains in place. We expect better gains in the second half of 2013, but pricing power will be more balanced, meaning a more sustainable trading range closer to USD110- 130 rather than USD130-150 will be realised.