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  • #10,261
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:57am Oct 1, 2012 9:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the beginning. ChikBear, be patient. Don't come to the conclusion so fast.
The COT is more for long term traders. For those of you who think anything more than 15 minutes is long term, well the COT wouldn't be very important. The COT would be absolutely worthless to scalpers and maybe even day traders. I'm not good at scalping and only day trade selectively every once in a while. Trying to trade every back and forth in the mkt isn't very profitable for me. You're lucky if you just break even every 25 trades. Short term trading to me is 3-5 days, intermediate term is 3-5 weeks, and long term is anything longer than 5 weeks. So I rely more on longer term outlooks than those who have more compact time frames. Everybody has their own ideas of time frames and thats a good thing. You must find your own comfort zone. The COT fits in well with my comfort zone. To each his own.
  • #10,262
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:05am Oct 1, 2012 10:05am
Quoting foxybunny
Chik, in case you misunderstand, I also believe in the COT data to give us the hints.
That is why a few months back, I have the inclination that it was on a bullish move due to COT.

Now you are right in that now is a better chance to look for bear, but my own analysis of COT is telling me not yet that bearish.

Means plenty of time to still turn bear, right now I still believe there is up move and that is based on COT only.

There is not enough COT evidence yet for me to be overall bearish.

Tomorrow has RBA news, we will see what happen after...
I don't get it. Where and how do you interpret the COT as being bullish. The commercials are extremely net SHORT. Its so obvious.
  • #10,263
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:11am Oct 1, 2012 10:11am
Quoting chiknthief
I don't rule anything out. It is rebounding right now. Thats obvious. It could even break the top of the BIG monthly trading range. I'm long the market myself at present @ H1 MAC red line 10360 w/tight stop. BUT, I'm very aware of the COT warning signs in this market. Somewhere soon there will be a MAJOR failure in the AU market. DO NOT ignore the signs. Trade carefully on this leg up. My H1 chart is already starting to show signs of failure. I wont marry this long position. I'll toss it in a New York second if need be.
So, you are a ultra bear with a bull's big stomachs? You are talking down the market then buy in the dark?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,264
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:14am Oct 1, 2012 10:14am
Quoting chiknthief
The COT is more for long term traders. For those of you who think anything more than 15 minutes is long term, well the COT wouldn't be very important. The COT would be absolutely worthless to scalpers and maybe even day traders. I'm not good at scalping and only day trade selectively every once in a while. Trying to trade every back and forth in the mkt isn't very profitable for me. You're lucky if you just break even every 25 trades. Short term trading to me is 3-5 days, intermediate term is 3-5 weeks, and long term is anything longer than 5 weeks....
Unless you are a long term trader, COT may mean something to you. For day trading, COT is irrelevant at best. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,265
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:14am Oct 1, 2012 10:14am
The COT setup tells me this market is very bearish NOT bullish at all. Commercials at or very near the lowest point on the chart in over 12 months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud cot.png Size: 12 KB
  • #10,266
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:16am Oct 1, 2012 10:16am
Where do i get this COT reading weekly? I use fxcm.

Short AU 1.0455
Stop 1.0630
Target 99.00 (out before ascending TL from 95. comes into play)
"My 2 cents"
  • #10,267
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:16am Oct 1, 2012 10:16am
Quoting DaddyBear
Unless you are a long term trader, COT may mean something to you. For day trading, COT is irrelevant at best. IMO

Thats exactly what I said. Thanx for the confirmation.
  • #10,268
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:18am Oct 1, 2012 10:18am
Quoting chiknthief
Thats exactly what I said. Thanx for the confirmation.
So, now we are on the same boat?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,269
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:19am Oct 1, 2012 10:19am
Quoting DaddyBear
So, you are a ultra bear with a bull's big stomachs? You are talking down the market then buy in the dark?
NOPE. But if the market says it will rally I might just grab a few pips and run. I'm looking for a BIG SHORT. Thats the big picture.
  • #10,270
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:20am Oct 1, 2012 10:20am
Quoting DaddyBear
So, now we are on the same boat?
I've always been there. Where the heck were you ??? lolololol
  • #10,271
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:27am Oct 1, 2012 10:27am
Now if only this weakling of a bull move can struggle up to 10408 I'll take profit. Meanwhile I placed a stop in the profit zone so I'm guaranteed a winning trade.
  • #10,272
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:32am Oct 1, 2012 10:32am
Quoting Stimulus
Where do i get this COT reading weekly? I use fxcm.

Short AU 1.0455
Stop 1.0630
Target 99.00 (out before ascending TL from 95. comes into play)

Looks like you might have a good trade going there. Google COT. There's plenty of places to find it. Mine, you have to have an account to access.
  • #10,273
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:48am Oct 1, 2012 10:48am
Quoting chiknthief
I don't get it. Where and how do you interpret the COT as being bullish. The commercials are extremely net SHORT. Its so obvious.

Refer to my post and chart last time for you as well.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013658#post6013658

We all may see COT a bit differently, just like we see the Charts a bit differently as well.

As you currently have a Long position in A/U, that is enough evidence that you don't believe now to be Bearish yet.
  • #10,274
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:52am Oct 1, 2012 10:52am
Here is the latest AUD COT chart that came out friday night. Its got todays action on it also. The commercials are even MORE SHORT than last week. The BULLS will soon be getting their axxes kicked !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD COT.png Size: 12 KB
  • #10,275
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:55am Oct 1, 2012 10:55am
Quoting doblece
A switch (also called maybe a Hub) is a device where to plug in several ethernet cables, including those of the modem and of the wireless router, creating a network where the modem serves the internet connection to the switch which is then picked up by the router (which in turn serves it wirelessly from that point) and by every computer that is plugged in the switch/hub.

Here's a pic:
Attachment

You do not need to move the modem or router as you can buy ethernet cable by the meter and ask the electronics guy/gal to build it...

Disconnect again ... Not happy.

OK, asking you about the Switch again as may need to re-consider using wires and Switch as a backup plan, rather than wireless.

The Switch is connected to both the Modem and Router.

What happens like in this case if the Router is not working properly, will the other computers still be able to automatically access the internet via the Switch without me removing the Router from the Switch ??
  • #10,276
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:58am Oct 1, 2012 10:58am
Quoting foxybunny
Refer to my post and chart last time for you as well.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013658#post6013658

We all may see COT a bit differently, just like we see the Charts a bit differently as well.

As you currently have a Long position in A/U, that is enough evidence that you don't believe now to be Bearish yet.
You certainly don't get it do you ? When you see this market TANK TANK TANK very soon, you'll understand what I'm saying. REMEMBER - the market never goes straight up or down, it moves up and down in both small and large waves. Nothing wrong with catching a small counter trend move. Almost everybody does it. But the BIG PICTURE says this :
Attached Image
  • #10,277
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:03am Oct 1, 2012 11:03am
FOXY - You still haven't explained how you interpret the aussie COT as being bullish. Why not ???
  • #10,278
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:05am Oct 1, 2012 11:05am
Enjoy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU D1 Trendlines BullnBear1.png Size: 421 KB
"My 2 cents"
  • #10,279
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:12am Oct 1, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Stimulus
Enjoy.
Your bottom TL is my minimum target. Thanx !!!
  • #10,280
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:14am Oct 1, 2012 11:14am
Quoting chiknthief
FOXY - You still haven't explained how you interpret the aussie COT as being bullish. Why not ???
It is all in my COT chart.
I probably should restrain and said Neutral to Bullish.

Did you read and analyse my COT chart in the old post?

Hv you analyze the recent few years move when Commercial is at near extreme bottom, did A/U ALWAYS go down immediately?
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