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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #10,241
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:38am Oct 1, 2012 6:38am
Quoting DaddyBear
09/26 low, 1.0329, could be a minor support IMO but it may not be able to hold up the falling rock.
Seems to me, 1.0329 held up the falling rock. Looking forward to a nice bounce after current retracement. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,242
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:59am Oct 1, 2012 6:59am

SHITZ
  • #10,243
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:00am Oct 1, 2012 7:00am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on this approach, the next channel could be within the lime color TLs. IMO
The LTL of the new channel has been moved up.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,244
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:40am Oct 1, 2012 7:40am
up $10 in less than 30 min....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,245
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:55am Oct 1, 2012 7:55am
Quoting gnomoneey
up $10 in less than 30 min....
What do you mean "$10"?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,246
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:03am Oct 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting gnomoneey
up $10 in less than 30 min....
$23 in 30min...wow
while au goes up 20pips...
what's wrong here...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,247
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:05am Oct 1, 2012 8:05am
Quoting DaddyBear
What do you mean "$10"?
$1767 to $1777 up $10

now $1790 up $23
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,248
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:08am Oct 1, 2012 8:08am
au should follow with at least 1.044x imo
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,249
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:24am Oct 1, 2012 8:24am
Quoting gnomoneey
$1767 to $1777 up $10

now $1790 up $23
now let's what happens in the next few months....are we going to complete the right inverse shoulder.

today we completed the inverse neckline of 1790.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusddailyhs1.gif Size: 27 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,250
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:59am Oct 1, 2012 8:59am
Quoting foxybunny
Chik, from COT, my analysis is that A/U is not ready to go down yet, it may have one bigger up leg first before any real big down.
COT does not signal to me that Commercial is ready to take A/U down yet.

The only issue with COT is that the data is always 1-week late, so still important to monitor Price Action as that will show the turn and reversal faster than the COT.

Currently A/U seem still in sideways range, and today Mon 1-Oct is AUD Public Holiday, not expecting much.

My overall bias for A/U currently is still a big move for the up side.

Of...
Yes, you are very right. The COT comes out once a week. IT IS NOT a timing mechanism. It only shows the positioning of the various market participants. The fact that it comes out once a week is totally irrelevant. And thats a good thing, it gives you plenty of time to prepare and strategize. The BEST part of all is that it puts you on the right side of the market at the MAJOR turns. The public (large specs and retailers) are 100% WRONG at every major turning point in the market. You just don't get better odds than that. The COT normally gives you the warning signs weeks in advance so patience and planning are required. The COT is not a trading system, it is not a timing indicator. But extreme readings in the COT make it one of the very best indicators at every single MAJOR turning point in the market. It is much more of a directional indicator than anything else out there. Never forget, extreme reading DO NOT mean it will reverse tomorrow - it only is a warning to be on the lookout for a MAJOR turning point. We're at that point right now in the aussie. Take off your bull mask and open your eyes to a failure in the PA. Its definitely on the way.
  • #10,251
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:05am Oct 1, 2012 9:05am
What just happened? 30 pip jump. Looking for an announcement, can't see anything.
  • #10,252
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:09am Oct 1, 2012 9:09am
30 pips ??? Do you consider that a MAJOR move worthy of a news event ???
  • #10,253
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:10am Oct 1, 2012 9:10am
Quoting chiknthief
30 pips ??? Do you consider that a MAJOR move worthy of a news event ???
This is the beginning. ChikBear, be patient. Don't come to the conclusion so fast.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,254
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:11am Oct 1, 2012 9:11am
Quoting pauladkinsau
What just happened? 30 pip jump. Looking for an announcement, can't see anything.
ISM news release was better than expected at 10am


10:00am USD
ISM Manufacturing PMI

51.5 49.8 49.6

10:00am USD
Construction Spending m/m

-0.6% 0.6% -0.4%

10:00am USD
ISM Manufacturing Prices

58.0 55.6 54.0
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,255
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:12am Oct 1, 2012 9:12am
Quoting chiknthief
30 pips ??? Do you consider that a MAJOR move worthy of a news event ???
no of course not, but we get so many "news events" that move things by much less. Excuse me for asking a simple question.
  • #10,256
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:12am Oct 1, 2012 9:12am
Its not bullish until PA takes out fridays high. Ya might get a few more pips going long on the short term charts...... Go get em !!!
  • #10,257
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:24am Oct 1, 2012 9:24am
Quoting DaddyBear
This is the beginning. ChikBear, be patient. Don't come to the conclusion so fast.

I don't rule anything out. It is rebounding right now. Thats obvious. It could even break the top of the BIG monthly trading range. I'm long the market myself at present @ H1 MAC red line 10360 w/tight stop. BUT, I'm very aware of the COT warning signs in this market. Somewhere soon there will be a MAJOR failure in the AU market. DO NOT ignore the signs. Trade carefully on this leg up. My H1 chart is already starting to show signs of failure. I wont marry this long position. I'll toss it in a New York second if need be.
  • #10,258
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:27am Oct 1, 2012 9:27am
Quoting pauladkinsau
no of course not, but we get so many "news events" that move things by much less. Excuse me for asking a simple question.
No problem Paul. The market ate up most of those 30 pips already. The bulls and the bears are in a tug of war.
  • #10,259
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:46am Oct 1, 2012 9:46am
hit high of 1791.99 (fxcm) and we are now 1775

au back to pre-news price
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10,260
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:50am Oct 1, 2012 9:50am
Quoting chiknthief
Yes, you are very right. The COT comes out once a week. IT IS NOT a timing mechanism. It only shows the positioning of the various market participants. The fact that it comes out once a week is totally irrelevant. And thats a good thing, it gives you plenty of time to prepare and strategize. The BEST part of all is that it puts you on the right side of the market at the MAJOR turns. The public (large specs and retailers) are 100% WRONG at every major turning point in the market. You just don't get better odds than that. The COT normally gives you...

Chik, in case you misunderstand, I also believe in the COT data to give us the hints.
That is why a few months back, I have the inclination that it was on a bullish move due to COT.

Now you are right in that now is a better chance to look for bear, but my own analysis of COT is telling me not yet that bearish.

Means plenty of time to still turn bear, right now I still believe there is up move and that is based on COT only.

There is not enough COT evidence yet for me to be overall bearish.

Tomorrow has RBA news, we will see what happen after that to give another direction.
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