Euro/Dollar | Page 104 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Euro/Dollar discussion 9 replies

Iran to replace Dollar with Euro 10 replies

Iran replace dollar with euro 15 replies

Syria Threatens To Abandon Dollar For Euro 3 replies

euro against the dollar 0 replies

Attachments: Euro/Dollar
Exit Attachments

Euro/Dollar

  • #2,061
  • Sep 26, 2012 5:16am Sep 26, 2012 5:16am
How long can Rajoy hold out.... more importantly... will the market start to price back in a Spanish bailout request as bond yields force Rajoy's hand?
Attached Image
  • #2,062
  • Sep 26, 2012 6:40am Sep 26, 2012 6:40am
Quoting Crassius
.

NY should give 2840 a run...

Check... really need to pop those stops.....
  • #2,063
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:23am Sep 26, 2012 7:23am
Quoting Crassius
... really need to pop those stops.....
Check -- stops sub 2840 popped... 200 DMA in sight....

TP set just ahead at 2830.... planning on fading the likely bounce to reenter higher depending on order flow.

200DMA and 21 DMA just below should bring out some buyers... especially middle eastern who seem to crop up at ebery likely support and buy like crazy of late....

if not 2800 beckons then ultimately 2750, where I'll be interested in buying.... for now....
  • #2,064
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:50am Sep 26, 2012 7:50am
We have traded as low as 2835, where the first buy orders probably profit taking related sat...

S&P found some strong support and now puts in a couple reversal signal candles....

I don't like the bounce all the way into the 50's, but will just have to sit tight and let come what will come.... I've set my TP above the 200 DMA, and am not being greedy here....

S&P deserves watching for short term reversal.... which is supportive of EURUSD
Attached Image
  • #2,065
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:40am Sep 26, 2012 8:40am
TP moved up slightly to 2835, 1 pip over S2... fighting BIS bidding on way down.... same will give big bounce to fade later.
  • #2,066
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:51am Sep 26, 2012 8:51am
Look at this S&P plunging and we can't get EURUSD to budge out of 2850-- that's because BIS is sitting there buying any supply ---

No wonder Zero Hedge calls this an excuse for a market --

Love it though.... frustrating today....
Attached Image
  • #2,067
  • Edited 9:24am Sep 26, 2012 9:09am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting Crassius
Look at this S&P plunging and we can't get EURUSD to budge out of 2850-- that's because BIS is sitting there buying any supply ---

No wonder Zero Hedge calls this an excuse for a market --

Love it though.... frustrating today....
spot on........excuse for a market, and not free

__
  • #2,068
  • Edited 9:38am Sep 26, 2012 9:36am | Edited 9:38am
I just booked profit on half the position, SL to BE on other half. I closed at 2840... 10 hours for a lousy 35 pips...

I fear the bounce outta here will be stronger next time around....


Europe closes in 1 hour... there are plenty of entries offered everyday.... frustrated f*cking with this one. Keeping half for 2750 or stop out.

That 200 DMA should be sucking price to it.... not acting like kryptonyte
  • #2,069
  • Sep 26, 2012 10:02am Sep 26, 2012 10:02am
Quoting Crassius
I just booked profit on half the position, SL to BE on other half. I closed at 2840... 10 hours for a lousy 35 pips...

I fear the bounce outta here will be stronger next time around....


Europe closes in 1 hour... there are plenty of entries offered everyday.... frustrated f*cking with this one. Keeping half for 2750 or stop out.

That 200 DMA should be sucking price to it.... not acting like kryptonyte

Changed my mind and just booked profit on second half.... 2840... this is the half hour we'll get some volatility as Europeans square their books, and with Spain's big announcement tomorrow, I don't want any risk exposure...

I worked enough today
  • #2,070
  • Edited 1:50pm Sep 27, 2012 1:33pm | Edited 1:50pm
1.2740/50 would have been an ideal measured target for the correction from 3173 to have ended, near the 38.2 fib retrace of the entire move up from July lows.

The slowing momentum, 200 DMA bounce, and more importantly a close above the falling channel from 1.3173 on a daily basis if that occurs today, would shift my thinking to Bullish, while above the 200 DMA.

The move at the moment, above the channel is suspect. It is a reactionary high fueled by a short squeeze as most Specs were caught short playing for a break of the 200 DMA and eventual 2750 target.

As such, a retrace that tests at least the channel top for a bounce or pull back inside, and most likely a failed attempt to retest the 200 DMA on the retest, would be expected. As such, the 200 DMA becomes a stop against which to play.

This view puts an end to the correction from an Elliot wave view from 3173, and I would expect an impulse phase to follow carrying us higher.

I will be watching the channel breakout, which remains suspect for now.... I want to see the daily bar close above that channel.

Buying into the retrace against the 200 DMA favored.
  • #2,071
  • Sep 27, 2012 8:36pm Sep 27, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Crassius

The slowing momentum, 200 DMA bounce, and more importantly a close above the falling channel from 1.3173 on a daily basis if that occurs today, would shift my thinking to Bullish, while above the 200 DMA.

Buying into the retrace against the 200 DMA favored.

Now that the daily candle has closed and given us a Bullish Outside day, I am only looking for longs on a Day Trading basis.

In my swing trading account I have begun to build a long position as price retraces from Thursday's high, against the 200DMA..... tucking the stop far enough below that noise around the 200 DMA doesn't take me out. I may hold that position for as long as a few week, as we work toward 1.3283 and 1.3485.

There will be lots of buyers extending from 2830/35, getting in front of the 200 DMA, and extending through 2800 ... that zone will have so many buyers... for now at least, its a barrier.

In my day trading accounts I'll take only longs for now.... looking to buy dips s entries form along the way.

My bias would change if we take out the 200 DMA.... and 2800 more importantly.... If we take out 2800 though.... 2750 is pretty close and will be a serious zone of support from 2750 to 40.
  • #2,072
  • Sep 28, 2012 1:18am Sep 28, 2012 1:18am
Event risk surrounding Spain could break the bullish sentiment, take out 2870 and bring on another run to threaten a break of the 200 DMA...

barring anything really scary, I see the 200 DMA holding, with Specs likely lined up ahead of it with buy orders protecting it.

We do need to stay alert today, given a possible Moody's downgrade today. Eagan Jones downgraded yesterday, but they have a lot less market moving influence compared to Moody's

We also have the release of Spanish Bank Stress tests. Any surprises here could spook the market.

Buy dips the order of the day. Use the 200 DMA as a line in the sand and stay bullish as long as it holds.... treat any sell offs challenging yesterday's low as buying opportunities....unless it comes in the form of a fast money moves in a spooked market.
  • #2,073
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:43am Sep 28, 2012 2:43am
Just hearing that the Spanish bank stress tests will be released at 4:30 London... just after the European markets close.

We are expecting a need for 60 Billion.... and bulls don't want a figure that surprises to the upside.
  • #2,074
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:19am Sep 28, 2012 4:19am
Quoting jezek5
Price action still says down to me,
only buying dips in Fiber.
Target looks to be 9600-9650
giving us 3500-4000 on Fiber,
sounds crazy i'm sure but thats
what my charts are saying.

DX at last starting to look like its breaking down,
been scalping long around these positions as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pe14.jpg Size: 86 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,075
  • Edited 5:41pm Sep 30, 2012 4:31pm | Edited 5:41pm
The sharp decline back into the downtrend channel from 3173, weak rally that faded at 2890 on the Spanish bank test release, and more importantly the unrealistic bank stress test parameters, coupled with Spain and France's unrealistic budget assumptions, have pressured the EURUSD back into familiar territory.

If it were only that, I'd hang on to my long position and take what may come betting the 200 DMA will hold.

But it isn't only that. We have the ECB rate decision coming up on Thursday, and they will likely cut... last week's inflation figures notwithstanding.

Repeated testing of the 200 DMA weakens its ability to hold. Each test increases the likely-hood it will break.

I will be trimming my long position on any early upside from the 200 DMA, but will keep small position on. I look to stop out and reverse direction at 2815. Should we reach that pivot, 2750/40 is in the cards.

The market looks to keep the pressure on Spain until it actually requests a full bailout.

2750/40 is a zone in which a key 38.2% Fib lies, and is a very good fit in scope and time for an end to either a complex correction off 3173, or more likely, the end of a larger scale wave A, which will be followed by a B wave rally that will fail somewhere short of 3173, and bring about the C wave that will end lower than 2750.
  • #2,076
  • Sep 30, 2012 6:14pm Sep 30, 2012 6:14pm
Stopped out 2815 as 200 DMA gives way in thin Asian trade... now short targeting 2750...
  • #2,077
  • Oct 1, 2012 2:54am Oct 1, 2012 2:54am
Quoting Crassius
Stopped out 2815 as 200 DMA gives way in thin Asian trade... now short targeting 2750...

Closed - 60 Pips -- I think I was a victim of a stop hunt in early thin Asian Trade...
  • #2,078
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:01am Oct 1, 2012 7:01am
I have no faith in this rally and still expect to see 2750 in one more push down... European traders did not have a chance to trade the Spanish stress test results, and PMI's came in with a slight beat...

As US traders take over, who have already digested and largely rejected Friday's Spanish news, Euro should fade off into consolidation with a bearish bias...

Above 2960 needed to change my sentiment... 2750 still in focus.
  • #2,079
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:50am Oct 1, 2012 7:50am
Sell Limits set to fade 2925/30 stop above 2960
  • #2,080
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:03am Oct 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting Crassius
Sell Limits set to fade 2925/30 stop above 2960
Canceled... spike fueled by Spain mulling over ECB "proposal"...

The pile of offers that were in the 2930 area have disappeared and are now at 2950...
4 traders viewing now