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My Learning Journey

  • #121
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:58am Oct 1, 2012 5:58am
Quoting aeternum
Another weekend gone. We have opened with a 20 pips gap down. Will we stop here or continue moving? My target for AUDUSD will now be around 1.07xx. I will trail my stops on the way there. The swap rates don't give me any issues holding the trade for so long.
AUDUSD has gained back close to 1.039 after bouncing off 1.033. China's PMI better than previous.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #122
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:06pm Oct 1, 2012 12:06pm
We're having a tug of war at 1.036 and 1.0385.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #123
  • Oct 2, 2012 1:41am Oct 2, 2012 1:41am
Quoting aeternum
We're having a tug of war at 1.036 and 1.0385.
RBA reduced interest rates to 3.25% from 3.5% causing a massive 70 pip fall but we have stopped short at 1.03. Failure to break 1.03 would mean that we're still going up.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #124
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:21am Oct 2, 2012 2:21am
Quoting aeternum
RBA reduced interest rates to 3.25% from 3.5% causing a massive 70 pip fall but we have stopped short at 1.03. Failure to break 1.03 would mean that we're still going up.
Why I think we're not going to shoot down to parity:

"Although perhaps some of the public hadn’t expected a cut today from the RBA, the market had actually priced in about 80% of the move"

- http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...around-1-0300/
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #125
  • Oct 2, 2012 1:32pm Oct 2, 2012 1:32pm
Crashed out of my trade. Now reopened a new long at 1.026, TP @ 1.03366.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #126
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:51pm Oct 2, 2012 11:51pm
Quoting aeternum
Crashed out of my trade. Now reopened a new long at 1.026, TP @ 1.03366.
Closed it early last night at 1.027. Which it failed to break. Reopened a new long at 1.02147, TP1 @ 1.03.

Seems we may get a chance to bounce off the trend line from Nov/Dec 2011.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 3 October 2012.png Size: 80 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #127
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:57pm Oct 2, 2012 11:57pm
Check out my EW count on this EURUSD baby. It also bounced off the trendline as I had expected. We are still above 50 RSI daily for EURUSD, so it has the potential to go up, seeing as we have yet to close below 1.28.

GBPUSD has also followed the trendline and has yet to break below it or close below 1.61.

Not sure why AUDUSD has been such a disappointment though. Pretty sure its just fundamentally bad. If everything goes up, AUDUSD may see a big 300 - 400 pip leap.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3 October 2012.png Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 3 October 2012.png Size: 81 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #128
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:58pm Oct 2, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting aeternum
Check out my EW count on this EURUSD baby. It also bounced off the trendline as I had expected. We are still above 50 RSI daily for EURUSD, so it has the potential to go up, seeing as we have yet to close below 1.28.

GBPUSD has also followed the trendline and has yet to break below it or close below 1.61.

Not sure why AUDUSD has been such a disappointment though. Pretty sure its just fundamentally bad. If everything goes up, AUDUSD may see a big 300 - 400 pip leap.
If EURUSD continues on this journey, we may touch 1.32833. Highs from April.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #129
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:20am Oct 3, 2012 12:20am
Quoting aeternum
Closed it early last night at 1.027. Which it failed to break. Reopened a new long at 1.02147, TP1 @ 1.03.

Seems we may get a chance to bounce off the trend line from Nov/Dec 2011.
TP changed to 1.0325. Will take half here and place T/S at 1.03.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #130
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:29am Oct 3, 2012 12:29am
Quoting aeternum
TP changed to 1.0325. Will take half here and place T/S at 1.03.
Changed TP again to 1.0365. Looking for an inverse head and shoulders set up with left shoulder at 1.03366 and neckline up at 1.04xx.

This is just a guess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 3 October 2012 inverse H&S.png Size: 74 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #131
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:54am Oct 3, 2012 12:54am
We're stuck in a 5 pip trading range of 1.0215 and 1.022. Scalping anyone?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #132
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:54am Oct 3, 2012 6:54am
Seems like the bears have lost power. We are forming a double bottom now with long wicks below. Failure to break the fib level here will bring us to see 1.03 again.

Edit: Forgot to mention the multiple divergences. Of which the one from early September indicated a bearish signal, and we did turn bearish. But now we have a bigger one from roughly 17 September to today where prices have been dropping but MACD shows bullish divergence.

Edit: We have closed at a double bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 3 October 2012 PM.png Size: 72 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #133
  • Oct 3, 2012 2:03pm Oct 3, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting aeternum
Seems like the bears have lost power. We are forming a double bottom now with long wicks below. Failure to break the fib level here will bring us to see 1.03 again.

Edit: Forgot to mention the multiple divergences. Of which the one from early September indicated a bearish signal, and we did turn bearish. But now we have a bigger one from roughly 17 September to today where prices have been dropping but MACD shows bullish divergence.

Edit: We have closed at a double bottom.
We are about to break the fib level with 3 tests against 1.02 allowing us to see 1.01xx a few times.

What direction is this going now? Guess it all depends on the Aussie news in 6 hours.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #134
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:47am Oct 4, 2012 1:47am
We have bounced exactly on 1.0185 for AUDUSD.

I have not been watching EURUSD and GBPUSD but it seems that EURUSD is being really stubborn until ECB speech later tonight while GBPUSD has broken lower since hitting 1.63 weeks ago.

Edit: Just as I was writing this, EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all jumped upwards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 4 October 2012 AM.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 October 2012 AM.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 4 October 2012 AM.png Size: 73 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #135
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:20am Oct 4, 2012 2:20am
Being impatient doesn't help. I continuously scalped my AUDUSD position and I'm now out. Don't see a definite direction but I'm bullish biased.

EURUSD has shot past 1.295 but failed to keep above it on 15m chart. I am short at 1.2936 (impatience kept me from waiting for 1.295 entry).

Looking to a TP at 1.285.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #136
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:26am Oct 4, 2012 2:26am
Quoting aeternum
Being impatient doesn't help. I continuously scalped my AUDUSD position and I'm now out. Don't see a definite direction but I'm bullish biased.

EURUSD has shot past 1.295 but failed to keep above it on 15m chart. I am short at 1.2936 (impatience kept me from waiting for 1.295 entry).

Looking to a TP at 1.285.
All the important news coming up tonight. GBP rate statement, ECB rate statement, ECB press conference, USD Unemployment Claims, CAD PMI and the FOMC meeting minutes.

Seems like its make or break day. EURUSD is on the verge of a breakout. GBPUSD has the potential to have a huge drop to 1.5 levels. And I'm sure risk off would affect AUDUSD and drag it down as well.

Assuming FOMC affects USDX and creates a risk on environment, we may break upwards.

EURUSD targets at 1.32.
GBPUSD targets at 1.64.
AUDUSD targets at 1.05/6.

Also, USDJPY may break 79 levels again. So if USDX falls, we may see 77 levels again.

Risk off targets are:

EURUSD targets at 1.27.
GBPUSD targets at 1.6.
AUDUSD targets at 1.16 or lower.

Let's see how this works.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #137
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:17am Oct 4, 2012 7:17am
EURUSD has tapped 1.2967 but failed to close above it. 1.295 is defending pretty well so far.

Weekly outlook indicates a possible double bottom. Not sure how much of an influence it would have here because only the past 2 bars have been bearish. It may actually have room to go up.

GBPUSD failed to break above 1.613 and we are now slowly dropping lower to 1.6.

We are capped by a doji from 2 weeks ago. This looks like a valid down move. We may shoot straight to 1.5x levels from here.

AUDUSD failed to break any higher past 1.023. We are now trading along the fib levels from 1.06 highs. Failure to go up would bring us lower to 1.01591 to test September lows. Failure to break that gives us double bottom which would allow us to shoot straight back up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 October 2012 PM.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 October 2012 Weekly.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 4 October 2012 PM.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 4 October 2012 Weekly.png Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 4 October 2012 PM.png Size: 82 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #138
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:23am Oct 4, 2012 7:23am
ECB Press Conference Live Stream:

http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/...121004.en.html

Forgot to add that EURUSD 1H closed in a doji and 4H closed in an almost doji looking candle.

If Draghi is dovish, all hell will break loose downwards.

Edit: For some reason GBPUSD has shot up to 1.612 and EURUSD is testing 1.297, AUDUSD remains unconvinced, stuck at 1.022x.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #139
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:05am Oct 4, 2012 10:05am
Seems like I went short at the wrong place. Should have gone long there.

Appears that my EW is still playing out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 October 2012 Daily.png Size: 88 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #140
  • Oct 4, 2012 12:05pm Oct 4, 2012 12:05pm
I realised how messy my charts are. Going to redo all of them now since I have time.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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