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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #10,201
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:17pm Sep 30, 2012 11:17pm
Top green line is a supply imbalance that hasn't been restored.

Red line is a demand imbalance from a while back that has been restored.

Bottom green line is a demand imbalance from way back. Will balance be restored or lost yet again?
15M
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10,202
  • Edited Oct 1, 2012 1:10am Sep 30, 2012 11:20pm | Edited Oct 1, 2012 1:10am
Quoting chiknthief
OK DB. I'm gonna save this message. Planning on having some fun with it down the road. Probably sooner rather than later.
ChikBear please do so. Although I was born a bear, I do know the power of the Aussie Bulls. The weekly ADX is at its lowest level since June 1 bottom. This means the Aussie is at a turning point. Usually, the turning point of ADX is a continuation pattern. Based on this analysis, I'd say the Aussie baby is heading north sooner than later. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,203
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:22pm Sep 30, 2012 11:22pm
Then, a couple levels with a fib thrown in.
4H
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10,204
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:23pm Sep 30, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting chiknthief
DB - BIG GUN commercials very bearish combined with TRIPLE FAILURES @ top of the monthly MAC (green line) Three consecutive months of failure. This market is gonna TANK, buddy. Its gonna TANK !!!
The more it delays, the more it'll tank.
  • #10,205
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:23pm Sep 30, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Big boys are bearish at the bottom all the time and vice versa. I really don't give them a dime for what they are doing. They are like us except having more money in their pockets.

As to the firework, I doubt it will happen. When the bulls begin to run, all bears will fall from their backs and get kicked at their axxes.
Hey DB, I just re-read your post. You almost had me there with your joke. Now let me correct this so it doesn't lead other people astray. The truth is commercials are always BEARISH at the top and BULLISH at the bottom. They are bearish right now and prices are still way way up there no where near anything you could call a major low point. It can fall a long long way, still.
  • #10,206
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:27pm Sep 30, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
ChikBear please do so. Although I was born a bear but I do know the power of the Aussie Bulls. The weekly ADX is at its lowest level since June 1 bottom. This means the Aussie is at a turning point. Usually, the turning point of ADX is a continuation pattern. Based on this analysis, I'd say the Aussie baby is heading north sooner than later. IMO
The ADX is not a directional indicator. It only measures strength of trend both up or down. When this market accelerates south your weekly ADX will certainly rise.
  • #10,207
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:27pm Sep 30, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Mama, is that your website? Seems to me a lot of followers there.
No haha just two by now, joined last friday but it's been fun and insightful.

And I can tweet simultaneously to my own regular twitter account. Trying to document my analysis and trades in a disciplined and orderly way, to check thereafter what did I do and what didn't I.
  • #10,208
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:28pm Sep 30, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting doblece
The more it delays, the more it'll tank.
My thoughts exactly
  • #10,209
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:35pm Sep 30, 2012 11:35pm
DB - dont forget the cycle for the first three weeks of november. Its a repeat of the august kick down phase. Only this time I believe its going to be much more severe. Nothing says we cant start heading south beforehand but come november I expect an acceleration phase. Mark your calender.
  • #10,210
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:49pm Sep 30, 2012 11:49pm
Quoting chiknthief
DB - BIG GUN commercials very bearish combined with TRIPLE FAILURES @ top of the monthly MAC (green line) Three consecutive months of failure. This market is gonna TANK, buddy. Its gonna TANK !!!
The issue is you are looking behind a pair of glasses with bearish color. Let me show you two charts to open your eyes.

H4 chart indicates a consolidation pattern at current level.
D1 chart indicates a move up to 1.10xx area is in the cards.
The Aussie may drop more today as I mentioned earlier tonight but it will be limited. The big boys still have to follow the law of the market whether or not they like it. IMO
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daddybearforex. com
  • #10,211
  • Sep 30, 2012 11:58pm Sep 30, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting chiknthief
The ADX is not a directional indicator. It only measures strength of trend both up or down. When this market accelerates south your weekly ADX will certainly rise.
The ADX is not a directional indicator. You are correct. But, I created my custom ADX to indicate the directions. (I have designed thousands custom indicators during last 5 years.) This modified ADX is my favorite indicator. It is a real time gauge of the market. FYI.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,212
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:01am Oct 1, 2012 12:01am
The big boys you are talking about must be the large specs. The BIG BOYS I'm talking about are the commercials. They are ALWAYS 100% correct at market tops and bottoms. Your big boys are 100% WRONG at every market top and bottom. Go back and look at the COT chart. You'll see what I mean. You just can't get better odds than bucking the big boy large specs at market extremes. Right now the big boy large specs are bullish as heck. As a contrarian, I love to see the large specs long to their ears. When everybody want to BUY - SELL it to em !!!

The BIG BOY commercials might just let your big boy large specs run it back up a little before they drop the sledge hammer on em.
  • #10,213
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:03am Oct 1, 2012 12:03am
Quoting chiknthief
The big boys you are talking about must be the large specs. The BIG BOYS I'm talking about are the commercials. They are ALWAYS 100% correct at market tops and bottoms. Your big boys are 100% WRONG at every market top and bottom. Go back and look at the COT chart. You'll see what I mean. You just can't get better odds than bucking the big boy large specs at market extremes. Right now the big boy large specs are bullish as heck. As a contrarian, I love to see the large specs long to their ears. When everybody want to BUY - SELL it to em !!!

The...
Please read my two previous posts before you continue your ultra bearish messages.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,214
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:08am Oct 1, 2012 12:08am
Hi DB,
I would like to weigh in here. I believe there may be only 1 more move down to possibly 1.0315 as the "big boys" are wanting to target stops at the 1.0320 level. However from that point I imagine the pair to consolidate around the 1.0330-80 level until tomorrow's RBA decision where a new direction will be established. But until we reach that point I am neutral.

By the by I will be bullish until November in the pair as I think the RBA will remain on hold tomorrow and then cut in November.

Any thoughts appreciated.
  • #10,215
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:13am Oct 1, 2012 12:13am
Quoting DaddyBear
Please read my two previous posts before you continue your ultra bearish messages.
I saw them and I don't rule out rally at this point. But after that nasty reversal friday, further continuation tonight, and the extremely bearish commercials, I have serious doubts. The BIG BOY commercials are ALWAYS right. You should make a custom ADX just for the BIG BOYS. That might be very valuable.
  • #10,216
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:13am Oct 1, 2012 12:13am
Quoting whyphi
Hi DB,
I would like to weigh in here. I believe there may be only 1 more move down to possibly 1.0315 as the "big boys" are wanting to target stops at the 1.0320 level. However from that point I imagine the pair to consolidate around the 1.0330-80 level until tomorrow's RBA decision where a new direction will be established. But until we reach that point I am neutral.

By the by I will be bullish until November in the pair as I think the RBA will remain on hold tomorrow and then cut in November.

Any thoughts appreciated.
In my earlier posts, I indicated S2 could be the point of return. Those big boys like to chase underdogs to the corner. I guess they have some mindset problems. If my chart reading is correct, 1.1031 could be reached on 10/17/12. IMHO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,217
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:20am Oct 1, 2012 12:20am
The BIG BOY commercials aint worried about little petty stuff like running your stops. When they step in the other little big boys run like a scalded dog. We're just about to break out of that GIANT descending triangle you see on the monthly charts. This way :
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  • #10,218
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:29am Oct 1, 2012 12:29am
Monthly
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  • #10,219
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:33am Oct 1, 2012 12:33am
Market is still very much sideways from H4 upwards.
Just remember not to marry your bias lest you lose sight of the PA while on honeymoon.
Even with an Eve and Adam double top ...
  • #10,220
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:38am Oct 1, 2012 12:38am
Quoting doblece
Market is still very much sideways from H4 upwards.
Just remember not to marry your bias lest you lose sight of the PA while on honeymoon.
Even with an Eve and Adam double top ...
Excellent words of advise. The market is always right. And we wont stay sideways forever.
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