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  • #10,161
  • Sep 30, 2012 2:52pm Sep 30, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Then, there's this chart. It's around July/August of 2011. 1.09775 has not been visited yet since price took off from this level. I wonder if the imbalance is still there, waiting to be balanced.

1H AudUsd
The H1 breakout pattern you show looks very alike to an(other) Eve and Adam double top.

See in Bulkowski's example (http://www.thepatternsite.com/eadt.html) how a pullback to this pattern breakout level doesn't usually go all the way to the exact price. We have had a pullback to near 60 pips distance as you can see on the chart below (shown on Daily so the series of pullbacks can be seen).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eveadam2011.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #10,162
  • Sep 30, 2012 2:55pm Sep 30, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting doblece
The H1 breakout pattern you show looks very alike to an(other) Eve and Adam double top.

See in Bulkowski's example (http://www.thepatternsite.com/eadt.html) how a pullback to this pattern breakout level doesn't usually go all the way to the exact price. We have had a pullback to near 60 pips distance as you can see on the chart below (shown on Daily so the series of pullbacks can be seen).

Attachment
Mama, do you think current PA is an Eve and Adam double top? Papa
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,163
  • Sep 30, 2012 3:17pm Sep 30, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Mama, do you think current PA is an Eve and Adam double top? Papa
Potentially, although it has yet to be confirmed by a breakout of the central valley. Here's an earlier chart I posted:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eve-adam.gif Size: 28 KB


As a side note, there's a bigger (Adam-Eve this time) pattern not yet confirmed with a much lower breakout level, ranging from september 2011 to june 2012 ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-adam-eve.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #10,164
  • Sep 30, 2012 4:00pm Sep 30, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Your chart is a puzzle to me. Not sure about what you meant "imbalance". Are you thinking it will thrust upward from this level or vice versa?

Supply/demand imbalance is what I'm referring to. I don't know if it will go up, but if price hits this level, then I think there's a good chance it will bounce down in a similar fashion.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10,165
  • Sep 30, 2012 4:03pm Sep 30, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting doblece
The H1 breakout pattern you show looks very alike to an(other) Eve and Adam double top.

See in Bulkowski's example (http://www.thepatternsite.com/eadt.html) how a pullback to this pattern breakout level doesn't usually go all the way to the exact price. We have had a pullback to near 60 pips distance as you can see on the chart below (shown on Daily so the series of pullbacks can be seen).

Attachment
I have his site bookmarked, and I know some of the patterns, but I'm using them less and less as time goes on.

In your chart, I can't see the pattern. Though, in my chart, I can see the pattern, though it's rather small. (It's outlined by the white box.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011hourlyaudusd.png Size: 22 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10,166
  • Sep 30, 2012 4:12pm Sep 30, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting doblece
Potentially, although it has yet to be confirmed by a breakout of the central valley. Here's an earlier chart I posted:

Attachment

As a side note, there's a bigger (Adam-Eve this time) pattern not yet confirmed with a much lower breakout level, ranging from september 2011 to june 2012 ...

Attachment
How reliable is this pattern? I really can't see the similarity between these two.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,167
  • Sep 30, 2012 5:05pm Sep 30, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I have his site bookmarked, and I know some of the patterns, but I'm using them less and less as time goes on.

In your chart, I can't see the pattern. Though, in my chart, I can see the pattern, though it's rather small. (It's outlined by the white box.)
On your chart there are two intertwined patterns: the one you have enclosed, and the bigger one which is the one I encircled on the daily chart and you have marked with the yellow box. Both Eve-Adam.

Reliability, according to Bulkowski's findings, seems to be around 62% and provided there is indeed a breakout and further extension to the downside according to the projected distance. Your white boxed pattern performed that way as it can be seen on your chart, then the bigger one seems to have performed as well, with a series of successive pullbacks that haven't surpassed the valley bottom level (as can be seen in my chart).

The clue here is the breakout (at least for the actual Eve-Adam pattern with valley level at around 1.0166) so it's from there that the pattern's success or failure has to perform, giving at least and above the distance between the higher peak and the bottom of the middle valley.
  • #10,168
  • Edited 5:30pm Sep 30, 2012 5:10pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
How reliable is this pattern? I really can't see the similarity between these two.
Smaller one is a fractal reversed image of the bigger one.
Would love to draw a cartoon but can't do that ATM.

Both Eves are back to back.

Big one: sharp peak (adam) then "rounded" peak (eve)
Smaller one: "rounded" peak (eve) then sharp peak (adam)

Edit: Could do something after all (wish I had your bull-bear drawing skills, sigh ...)

Attached Image
  • #10,169
  • Sep 30, 2012 5:37pm Sep 30, 2012 5:37pm
Quoting doblece
On your chart there are two intertwined patterns: the one you have enclosed, and the bigger one which is the one I encircled on the daily chart and you have marked with the yellow box. Both Eve-Adam.

Reliability, according to Bulkowski's findings, seems to be around 62% and provided there is indeed a breakout and further extension to the downside according to the projected distance. Your white boxed pattern performed that way as it can be seen on your chart, then the bigger one seems to have performed as well, with a series of successive pullbacks...
One problem I have with the yellow box in my chart being an eve-adam is the eve isn't rounded (it falls down almost 40% of the whole pattern), while the adam get's retraced around 60% before a "true" breakout according to bulkowski. So, wouldn't this negate the the "double top"?

Quote
Wait for confirmation – price to close below the valley floor (point A in the figure to the right). If you don't wait, there's a 65% chance that price will continue higher without confirming the double top.

I don't always perceive things the way they should be, so I could be doing that here.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10,170
  • Sep 30, 2012 5:43pm Sep 30, 2012 5:43pm
Australia AiG performance manufacturing index (prior 45.3).

Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (survey -4, prior -1), non-manufacturing index (survey 6, prior 8)

Australia MI inflation gauge m/m (prior 0.6%) y/y (prior 2.2%).

China official manufacturing PMI (survey 50.1, prior 49.2).

The dollar looking slightly firmer in early trade ahead of Japan’s ‘Tankan’ report later tonight. Also of note is that it is the beginning of China’s “Golden Week” holiday, with speculation that further stimulus maybe in the cards as it has in previous “Golden Weeks”.Would expect the dollar to start to consolidate around these levels unless we get any surprises later.
  • #10,171
  • Sep 30, 2012 6:36pm Sep 30, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting doblece
Smaller one is a fractal reversed image of the bigger one.
Would love to draw a cartoon but can't do that ATM.

Both Eves are back to back.

Big one: sharp peak (adam) then "rounded" peak (eve)
Smaller one: "rounded" peak (eve) then sharp peak (adam)

Edit: Could do something after all (wish I had your bull-bear drawing skills, sigh ...)

Attachment
Mama, your cartoons are beautiful. The colors and concept are excellent. Skills are nothing more than cosmetics.

Regarding Eve and Adam pattern, I believe it is just another name of EW wave 3, 4 and 5. Current PA does not have the components required. I wouldn't think E&A can be applied here. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,172
  • Sep 30, 2012 6:38pm Sep 30, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting 4xxxxaus
Australia AiG performance manufacturing index (prior 45.3).

Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (survey -4, prior -1), non-manufacturing index (survey 6, prior 8)

Australia MI inflation gauge m/m (prior 0.6%) y/y (prior 2.2%).

China official manufacturing PMI (survey 50.1, prior 49.2).

The dollar looking slightly firmer in early trade ahead of Japan’s ‘Tankan’ report later tonight. Also of note is that it is the beginning of China’s “Golden Week” holiday, with speculation that further stimulus maybe in the cards as it has in previous “Golden...
Nice report and analysis.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,173
  • Sep 30, 2012 6:43pm Sep 30, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Mama, your cartoons are beautiful. The colors and concept are excellent. Skills are nothing more than cosmetics.

Regarding Eve and Adam pattern, I believe it is just another name of EW wave 3, 4 and 5. Current PA does not have the components required. I wouldn't think E&A can be applied here. IMO
All roads lead to Rome ... either biking, driving or hiking.
At a certain point of the trip, the Colosseum can be seen from different places ... and it's interesting to hear what everyone experienced along the road ... though not everyone might have had pizza.

Anyway: E&A would ONLY be confirmed and thus applied, IF price closes its daily candle below the previous lows at 1.0166.
So there's still quite a few steps from here, especially if doing alpinism ...
  • #10,174
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:10pm Sep 30, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting doblece
All roads lead to Rome ... either biking, driving or hiking.
At a certain point of the trip, the Colosseum can be seen from different places ... and it's interesting to hear what everyone experienced along the road ... though not everyone might have had pizza.

Anyway: E&A would ONLY be confirmed and thus applied, IF price closes its daily candle below the previous lows at 1.0166.
So there's still quite a few steps from here, especially if doing alpinism ...
Very poetic reply. Thanks Mama.

In the meantime, the Aussie is approaching S2. I can feel the Bull is gathering his energy for a rebound. It's risky to short at this level even I think it's going lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DTL-2.JPG Size: 65 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,175
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:15pm Sep 30, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Very poetic reply. Thanks Mama.

In the meantime, the Aussie is approaching S2. I can feel the Bull is gathering his energy for a rebound. It's risky to short at this level even I think it's going lower.
Try to figure out how much more the Bear wants to slice the Bull .......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MORE.JPG Size: 104 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,176
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:15pm Sep 30, 2012 9:15pm

FUDGE

  • #10,177
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:19pm Sep 30, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Try to figure out how much more the Bear wants to slice the Bull .......
09/26 low, 1.0329, could be a minor support IMO but it may not be able to hold up the falling rock.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,178
  • Edited 9:54pm Sep 30, 2012 9:22pm | Edited 9:54pm
Quoting Daytrader74

FUDGE

DT, is Fxxxx the only word you may use in this thread? I believe there is no such a rule. Please feel free to use other words to express your emotion. People will understand more about your feeling if you use other non-F words.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,179
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:28pm Sep 30, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
DT, is Fxxxx the only word you may use in this thread? I believe there is no such a rule. Please feel free to use other words to express your emotion. People will understand more about your feeling if you use other words.
But when I used another word before you gave me a strike!!
  • #10,180
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:52pm Sep 30, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Sunday open may drive the Aussie down 50 pips. Current D1 Pattern is very similar to what happened in mid-August. But, looking into the invisible elements, they are not equal. This is the reason I wouldn't think it is going to drop further after initial down move. IMO
Now, the Aussie is down more than 50 pips. Is this the end of falling? Probably not. The big boys have some bad habits to chase down the underdogs to the corner and then get those dogs come back to attack them.
daddybearforex. com
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