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  • #101
  • Sep 26, 2012 11:07am Sep 26, 2012 11:07am
Quoting aeternum
We just pounced on 1.03366. Time for make or break.
Houston, we have lift off! AUDUSD has now shunned 1.033x.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 27 September 2012 PM.png Size: 65 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #102
  • Sep 26, 2012 11:28am Sep 26, 2012 11:28am
Quoting aeternum
Houston, we have lift off! AUDUSD has now shunned 1.033x.
Just as I say that, we free fall 10 pips. I'm holding TPs all the way to 1.08. It will take a while though. I may close at 1.06xx, at a reasonable fib level so I can re-arrange my trading plans because it obviously isn't working the last time I placed those entry orders.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #103
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:24am Sep 27, 2012 12:24am
AUDUSD is now trading above 1.04, a bounce from 1.033x levels yesterday.

Edit: Also, with a hammer, some weird looking bottoms on the 4H. We may go way upwards now.

EURUSD is now trading in 1.28 zones, which we have only seen for a couple of days a few weeks ago.

GBPUSD is well on its way back to 1.62.

This is only a simple correction for the downside, the movement is too slow to be some sort of a trend continuation.

I expect to see a retest of lows followed by a burst up. Targets are still long right now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 27 September 2012 AM.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 27 September 2012 AM.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 27 September 2012 AM.png Size: 61 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #104
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:47am Sep 27, 2012 12:47am
Quoting aeternum
AUDUSD is now trading above 1.04, a bounce from 1.033x levels yesterday.

Edit: Also, with a hammer, some weird looking bottoms on the 4H. We may go way upwards now.

EURUSD is now trading in 1.28 zones, which we have only seen for a couple of days a few weeks ago.

GBPUSD is well on its way back to 1.62.

This is only a simple correction for the downside, the movement is too slow to be some sort of a trend continuation.

I expect to see a retest of lows followed by a burst up. Targets are still long right now.
Seems like AUDUSD is being capped by R1 of 1.0418/20.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #105
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:19pm Sep 27, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting aeternum
Seems like AUDUSD is being capped by R1 of 1.0418/20.
We have broken the resistance and broken the 61.8 fib level at 1.04296, and we are now testing 38.2 of the lows from September and the highs of September which sits at 1.04463. Should the fib level continue its journey, it should continue its hike to 1.05141, where it can either continue its movement up and break the purple trend line and tap 1.06 or further, or it could reverse and retrace again.

Edit: In addition, we have some bad news coming out of US. Should the economy fail to improve, we may see a bigger QE implementation. Who knows. Something has to be done, whether it works or not. As for now, I'm looking for EURUSD to hit 1.32 before shorting it back to 1.1xx and GBPUSD to hit 1.64 before shorting it to 1.5xx levels.

I won't be shorting AUDUSD because of the painful interest rate swaps.

Edit: Gold has regained its losses and is sitting at 1776. Should it test 1800 and break it, its definitely risk on. (Well, not because gold goes up. I just think if gold goes up, EUR, AUD and GBP will all rise against USD.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 27 September 2012 PM.png Size: 68 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #106
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:33pm Sep 27, 2012 12:33pm
EURUSD is attempting to get back to 1.29 while GBPUSD is back above 1.62.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #107
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:39pm Sep 27, 2012 12:39pm
If we break the daily inside bar, rise above 50 RSI and have MACD crossovers, does that mean we'd go up further? We shall see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 27 September 2012 Update.png Size: 80 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #108
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:47pm Sep 27, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting aeternum
EURUSD is attempting to get back to 1.29 while GBPUSD is back above 1.62.
EURUSD has broken 1.29 and has defied all odds to gain grounds. S&P is also rising. Looks like we will resume our uptrend here.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #109
  • Sep 28, 2012 12:48am Sep 28, 2012 12:48am
AUDUSD has stalled ahead of 1.047, expecting prices to test 1.05 by the week.
Daily inside bar is completed with RSI now above 50 and MACD about to crossover. A crossover would indicate a bullish movement. I estimate that to be past 1.05 before it crosses.

EURUSD has stalled around 1.293/4.
RSI has held above 50. We should continue upside movement until fundamentals knock us down.

GBPUSD has stalled around 1.625/6.
RSI has been constantly hovering above 60 for a long time now. Strength has not been lost. We may stall or retrace for a while now as it seems to be forming some sort of divergence.

Edit: Updated them with divergences. ITS EVERYWHERE.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 28 September 2012 AM.png Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 28 September 2012 AM.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 28 September 2012 AM.png Size: 81 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #110
  • Sep 28, 2012 1:30am Sep 28, 2012 1:30am
Seeing how GBPUSD is rising, we may see a test of 1.63 by the week. Possible breakout to 1.64 top.

With this I'm also expecting EURUSD to regain 1.31 grounds and test 1.32 or at least 1.315.

AUDUSD should have the strength to test 1.07 should gold continue its rise upwards.

But with all the weird divergences occuring and us being at the end of the month, it will be tough to call any movements. Best to stay out of trades and wait unless you're scalping or just plain confident.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #111
  • Sep 28, 2012 9:54am Sep 28, 2012 9:54am
Despite lousier than expected US data, all 3 majors took a huge swing downwards.

AUDUSD has stabilized above 1.04 since yesterday and we have hit resistance near 1.047. We have now shot straight past 1.04, trading around 1.039.

EURUSD has also stabilized above 1.29 since yesterday and we have maintained a 1.293/5 level until earlier where we skydived.

GBPUSD is the only pair that did not really stabilize above 1.62. It is now hanging on to 1.613, showing further downsides to support at 1.60796.

However, with nothing much of a retracement since the downward movement last week, I expect this to be the real downward push needed. Should it fail to close past 1.03, 1.28 and 1.6 respectively, we should see this as a correction to the upside.

I would be biased short on GBPUSD because of the weekly doji close, so I will only be selling the rallies. I will officially take up a position only after it goes beyond 1.63.

I am still long AUDUSD and I'm looking for a close around 1.06x to 1.07. If it taps and goes past 1.06, I'm definitely expecting it to test 1.07. I will close my position here and begin shorting positions.

I am overall bearish on EURUSD. However, I expect a retest of 1.31/2 soon. With that retest, should it fail to break, I will enter a short position with a near-term target of 1.26. My next target will be 1.24 followed by 1.2.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 28 September 2012 PM.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 28 September 2012 PM.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 28 September 2012 PM.png Size: 68 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #112
  • Sep 28, 2012 10:29am Sep 28, 2012 10:29am
Quoting aeternum
Despite lousier than expected US data, all 3 majors took a huge swing downwards.

AUDUSD has stabilized above 1.04 since yesterday and we have hit resistance near 1.047. We have now shot straight past 1.04, trading around 1.039.

EURUSD has also stabilized above 1.29 since yesterday and we have maintained a 1.293/5 level until earlier where we skydived.

GBPUSD is the only pair that did not really stabilize above 1.62. It is now hanging on to 1.613, showing further downsides to support at 1.60796.

However, with nothing much of a retracement...
This massive freefall seems to be scarier than I thought. Could this be some sort of a squeeze or perhaps a bear trap?

My biasness may kill me.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #113
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:10pm Sep 28, 2012 2:10pm
I wasn't paying attention to NZDUSD but after checking it out, I realised it hit 0.835 again. Unfortunately I didn't have enough units to short it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 28 September 2012.png Size: 68 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #114
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:20pm Sep 28, 2012 2:20pm
USDCHF has gone back to its normal trading ranges since the QE announcement.

AUDNZD looks promising now with a good buy zone, a possible doji close and a double bottom from April. A rise here would bring us at least 1.27xx.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 28 September 2012.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD 28 September 2012.png Size: 76 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #115
  • Edited Sep 29, 2012 12:13am Sep 28, 2012 11:23pm | Edited Sep 29, 2012 12:13am
Quoting aeternum
After closing my positions, I will be looking to go long AUDNZD.

TP1 @ 1.27318, TP2 @ 1.27977, TP3 @ 1.30772 (T/S at BE).
I will open this as soon as I get units for it.

Edit: Added the weekly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD 29 September 2012.png Size: 73 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #116
  • Sep 28, 2012 11:24pm Sep 28, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting aeternum
tp1 @ 1.065, tp2 @ 1.07132, tp3 @ 1.08
Changed targets. Closing near 1.057 - 1.06.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #117
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:11am Sep 29, 2012 12:11am
1: AUDUSD

AUD saw a significant shoot up where it tested 1.05 levels again. But just yesterday it retested lows, trading around 1.03. Next week's COT could show us a lower net long position. We still have some room to the upside although its actually very limited. I'm still expect a retest of 1.06 highs.

2: NZDUSD

Also in overbought zones, the last time we were at such levels we were trading at 0.81, only because USD was higher then. USD is currently below 50% net long speculation which gives NZDUSD more room to the downside.

Also it has retested 0.835 where I expect it to go downhill from here on.

3: GBPUSD

64.36% is the highest GBPUSD has been since 20 September 2011 (the furthest I've recorded it). We seem to be stuck at such levels at 1.61/2 levels. Should we fail to retest highs or give way to more upside, we should trade lower to 40% of net long which would be about 1.58.

4: EURUSD

With a constant increase since 17 July, now trading at levels highest since 20 September 2011 (the furthest I've recorded). We're stuck with a top at 1.3, unable to break the resistance and we free fall down yesterday to 1.28. I am still looking for an upside retest near 1.32.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.jpg Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.jpg Size: 41 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #118
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:23am Sep 29, 2012 12:23am
Just took a look at AUDUSD 4H chart. Seems like a potential inverted H&S in the making.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 29 September 2012.png Size: 83 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #119
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:58pm Sep 29, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting aeternum
Changed targets. Closing near 1.057 - 1.06.
After much consideration, I think I will change targets and trail stops all the way to 1.08. I will close all my positions at 1.08 even if we may see 1.09 or 1.1.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #120
  • Sep 30, 2012 3:11pm Sep 30, 2012 3:11pm
Another weekend gone. We have opened with a 20 pips gap down. Will we stop here or continue moving? My target for AUDUSD will now be around 1.07xx. I will trail my stops on the way there. The swap rates don't give me any issues holding the trade for so long.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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