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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #2,481
  • Sep 26, 2012 12:45am Sep 26, 2012 12:45am
Quoting dazzdude
d


Thanks. But it isnt about greed (in this case, generaly I agree). Question is if you have target would you prefer wait until price reach this target or do you close half position (e.g. when price is equal to stop loss). But I think I know the answer I have to test it on historic data what is better but I consider you and other guys here more experience so I only want to read your experience. Thanks
  • #2,482
  • Sep 26, 2012 2:22am Sep 26, 2012 2:22am
Quoting Iron666
Question is if you have target would you prefer wait until price reach this target or do you close half position (e.g. when price is equal to stop loss).
It is a good question. One that I have thought about, and one that I have read about and one that I have back tested. The answer is: It does make a difference, but not a tremendous amount.

Return
If you decide to take out some profits early, in general, you will make less return in the long run than if you hold to your final target and close. If you hold, you will have more losing trades, but the winners will bag you more money.

Equity Curve
If you decide to take out some profits early, in general, you will have a smoother equity curve and a smoother emotional ride. You may not make as much in the long run.

Emotional Factor
If you hold and do not scale, by cannot stomach the ups and downs, or the string of consecutive loses which will occur at some point, then your emotions will cause you to do silly things and your efforts to maximise your return will fail.

My Answer
In the end, I do not thinks it makes a tremendous difference to your return, and that is why we trade. To make and maximise our return on investment.

The decision should be based upon what makes you the most comfortable. Above all, what will be the most important is the consistency of the approach.

Myself, if I am joining a trend, I see less need to scale and more reason to hold. I am taking something counter trend, picking a potential reversal, or taking something speculative, I see more need to scale early and less reason to hold.

Utility Theory
Utility theory is related to this topic and something which can be read to provide further insight. Seach FF for the doucment called "Trading for Infinite yield-- Utility theory and you.pdf"

I hope that helps.

d
  • #2,483
  • Sep 26, 2012 2:34am Sep 26, 2012 2:34am
Quoting squeezy
good to see ur post Darren, been a minute looking forward to more love that tp u have btw
Hi mate... I want to see this level hold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurGbp_30min.png Size: 36 KB
  • #2,484
  • Sep 26, 2012 3:04am Sep 26, 2012 3:04am
Quoting dazzdude
Hi mate... I want to see this level hold.
looks like a reverse head & shoulders in the making (right shoulder forming)
some also call that pattern Quasimodo (QM)
watching
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #2,485
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:20am Sep 28, 2012 4:20am
Quoting squeezy
looks like a reverse head & shoulders in the making (right shoulder forming)
some also call that pattern Quasimodo (QM)
watching
EDIT: limit order missed by 2.1 pips.. hate it when that happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,486
  • Sep 28, 2012 5:59am Sep 28, 2012 5:59am
Quoting dazzdude
It is a good question. One that I have thought about, and one that I have read about and one that I have back tested. The answer is: It does make a difference, but not a tremendous amount.

Return
If you decide to take out some profits early, in general, you will make less return in the long run than if you hold to your final target and close. If you hold, you will have more losing trades, but the winners will bag you more money.

Equity Curve
If you decide to take out some profits early, in general, you will have a smoother equity...

Thanks a lot!
  • #2,487
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:07am Oct 2, 2012 8:07am
The FX Webinar reviews are still free to watch or no? The recorded ones, I mean.
I was away for a month and there is a new site and I cant find anything.
Thoughts are things
  • #2,488
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:11am Oct 3, 2012 1:11am
Quoting Quezoy
The FX Webinar reviews are still free to watch or no? The recorded ones, I mean.
I was away for a month and there is a new site and I cant find anything.
Hi Quezoy,

Its @ www.tradingwithdeadlyaccuracy.com

J
  • #2,489
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:15am Oct 3, 2012 1:15am
This pic is from yesterdays brief on GA.

Hope some of you guys got on it. The re test of the line held to the pip!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,490
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:18am Oct 3, 2012 1:18am
Quoting JayMFX
This pic is from yesterdays brief on GA.

Hope some of you guys got on it. The re test of the line held to the pip!
Yes, beautiful line no doubt. Extend it a bit to the left as it starts on 06.22nd .)
  • #2,491
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:57am Oct 3, 2012 1:57am
First level 5135 is quite good but second level at 6978 is better. Possible quasimodo pattern and nice wmd level imho.


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  • #2,492
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:50pm Oct 4, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting JayMFX
Hi Quezoy,

Its @ www.tradingwithdeadlyaccuracy.com

J
Where exactly? Cant find it in the video section.
Thoughts are things
  • #2,493
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:44pm Oct 4, 2012 7:44pm
Quoting dazzdude
EurGbp
How did you know that?
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  • #2,494
  • Edited 3:10am Oct 5, 2012 2:38am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting msj_rs
How did you know that?
Below is the picture that was posted. The reason is pretty clear (TL retest and S/R flip). However in saying that, credit should really be given where credit due. Althoug the up move was pretty clear to me, Will has been pointing out how EURGBP will move for the last 12 months, so I did have a helping hand.

It goes like this...

Point A: (I do not recall the exact spot, but in that general area), Will said EURGBP was a short.

Point B: (At the exact low mind you!) Will said close shorts, go long. Price will retest .85. Buy the dips. It will reverse from .85, retesting the low (B).

Point C. Price reverses at .85 (to the pip). Advise was to sell the rallies.

Point D: Most people were saying double bottom. Will said keep shorting, it will continue to fall and the buyers will get trapped, and the trend down will accellerate. It did.

Point E: Close shorts. Could reverse from here.

Point F: (I do not recall this spot, in that general area? Or maybe the break of the low? I do not recall) Again, EURGBP shorts are back in play, sell.

Point G (Edit: updated pic, it was on the pullback). Same story.... close your shorts and go long, price is going to reverse here and retest .85. The waves back to .85 could be like such and such (i.e. will not be in a straight line)....

As I said. credit should really be given where credit is due.

d
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  • #2,495
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:58pm Oct 6, 2012 9:58pm
Quoting dazzdude
Below is the picture that was posted. The reason is pretty clear (TL retest and S/R flip). However in saying that, credit should really be given where credit due. Althoug the up move was pretty clear to me, Will has been pointing out how EURGBP will move for the last 12 months, so I did have a helping hand.

It goes like this...

Point A: (I do not recall the exact spot, but in that general area), Will said EURGBP was a short.

Point B: (At the exact low mind you!) Will said close shorts, go long. Price will retest .85. Buy the dips. It will...
Hi, could you tell how were all those points defined? I mean the reason behind entering those trades ?

Thanks
  • #2,496
  • Oct 7, 2012 5:26pm Oct 7, 2012 5:26pm
Eurogbp has been good to us, infact we have caught the best part of every major wave since December 2011.

The formation is explained in the Pattern Hunting tutorial which you will find in the Elite section. Heres an excerpt.

Inserted Video
  • #2,497
  • Edited 5:29pm Oct 7, 2012 5:26pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting needtolearn
Hi, could you tell how were all those points defined? I mean the reason behind entering those trades ?

Thanks
(edit.... I just saw the post above...)

Hi needtolearn,

I wanted to make sure I had my facts right, so I went back and checked my notes. I have point F wrong. Point F should be on the 12 of June, that's earlier than what I show above. Here are my notes (taken from Will) on June 12.

"From here, EURGBP will continue the down move until the .77 - .78 area (possibly .76). At that price, we will have pattern completion. Price will reverse from that area and make its way back up and retest .85."

I have shown that in the chart below.

To answer your questions, as I understand it, the core principle with the EURGBP moves is that Will sees multi-wave patterns in the market structure, and those patterns tend to have predictable outcomes whether they be on a 5min chart or a daily chart. I have watched Will predict the next 3,4,5... waves of a move and they tend to play out in most cases.

I am not talking here about patterns like wedges, triangles, head and shoulders, I am taking about waves (up waves, down wave, up wave, etc). In the past you did have people that saw patterns like this...Elliot, Gann, etc. I think Will see patterns in the randomness that other people do not.

What is astonishing is that this pattern on EURGBP started at the end last year and Will has taken a chuck out of every wave. If you want to know more, you will need to ask him to explain it. It's not something I understand well enough to comment on further.

d
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,498
  • Oct 7, 2012 5:36pm Oct 7, 2012 5:36pm
Here are the analysis produced and published in my trade notes on the 1st and 2nd of October.

http://player.vimeo.com/video/50515676

http://player.vimeo.com/video/50594382
  • #2,499
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:58am Oct 11, 2012 6:58am
This was posted on todays trading notes by WMD as a potential hourly double bottom. Once I saw this candle close I opened the trade. Currently up 70 pips. Have scaled out 2/3 and see how far I can let the rest ride

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ WMD.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #2,500
  • Oct 11, 2012 7:02am Oct 11, 2012 7:02am
Quoting JayMFX
This was posted on todays trading notes by WMD as a potential hourly double bottom. Once I saw this candle close I opened the trade. Currently up 70 pips. Have scaled out 2/3 and see how far I can let the rest ride

Attachment

Very good job JayMFX.....

EJ today is by far the best behaving pair, the best trade possible on a buy & hold fashion, let that 1/3 run, it can run much more far than you think...

Congratulations to WMD for his trading web page, tools and offers to the traders comunity.

Good job again
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