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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #1,761
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:50am Sep 7, 2012 2:50am
Quoting j4d
Last months candle closed in the top 25% of its range and although small this is still a bullish sign, I also think the 7844 resistance coupled with a decent trend line is enough for some heavy orders parked around this area, I still favour a correction back to 80. my view though in this pair is Euro weakness.

What do you think Mike ?
10 - 12 days of ranging. I honestly don't know but if you forced me to guess, I would agree with you. False break to .8000 then resumption of the down trend. Looking fundamentally I think it is set in stone now that the Euro will not break up - tied to the mast. This is initially good for the Euro, obviously. After that decision comes the solvency mess which means massive QE and we know what that did to the dollar.

One thing I do know is that I'm not trading this pair at the moment. The break will be interesting, though, and I love those breaks. There's always a line to trade off, even if I do make a mess of it.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,762
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:34pm Sep 9, 2012 7:34pm
Ive been waiting FOREVER for this thing to retest the .8005 and grab my Sell Limit order...
Pretty major potential breakout area but a bounce seems likely at least down to the .7963



Is anyone else in this thing?
  • #1,763
  • Sep 12, 2012 4:56am Sep 12, 2012 4:56am
No, I'm not trading this pair at the moment. Forgive me for not replying sooner. There was a pull back from .8000 and I hope you got your stops to BE. The .8066 area (2010 low) might be next to look at after the flush of enthusiasm subsides and reality starts to sink in.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,764
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:08am Sep 12, 2012 10:08am
- Let us see if 0.8025 holds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg m15.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,765
  • Sep 17, 2012 7:06am Sep 17, 2012 7:06am
The beauty of posting someone else's analysis is that it makes me immune from criticism. Interesting area.

http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-upd...key-trendline/
Gone to a better place
  • #1,766
  • Sep 17, 2012 7:19am Sep 17, 2012 7:19am
Quoting smikester
The beauty of posting someone else's analysis is that it makes me immune from criticism. Interesting area.

http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-upd...key-trendline/
You are right. you are immune from slating. However I dont slate your work anyway cos I think its good stuff. So go on tell us what you think

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,767
  • Sep 17, 2012 7:56am Sep 17, 2012 7:56am
Thanks. Well what I think is the trend line has already been broken. For example, draw it on the monthly, it looks like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp120917m1.gif Size: 20 KB


I'll buy a bullish rejection of .8066 on the H1 (like now) and a daily break of .8115. If .8115 is tested and rejected I'll short under .8066. That would be my plan.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,768
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:58am Sep 17, 2012 8:58am
Quoting smikester
Thanks. Well what I think is the trend line has already been broken. For example, draw it on the monthly, it looks like this:

Attachment

I'll buy a bullish rejection of .8066 on the H1 (like now) and a daily break of .8115. If .8115 is tested and rejected I'll short under .8066. That would be my plan.

This could be ground floor of a serious upmove...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,769
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:28am Sep 17, 2012 9:28am
Quoting Olu
This could be ground floor of a serious upmove...

Olu
Thanks Olu. Could be. I had a look at your blog and you have obviously thought this through.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,770
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:26am Sep 19, 2012 4:26am
This could be a good level to get long if your theory is correct Olu.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,771
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:31am Sep 19, 2012 4:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp120919h1.gif Size: 24 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #1,772
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:32am Sep 19, 2012 4:32am
If this support breaks then it's back to .8000
Gone to a better place
  • #1,773
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:43am Sep 25, 2012 3:43am
This is a great line to trade off. If you know what you are doing. If you know what you are doing tell me how to do it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp120925d1.gif Size: 21 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp120925h1.gif Size: 22 KB


Daily and hourly
Gone to a better place
  • #1,774
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:47am Sep 25, 2012 3:47am
To me it means sell GBP/USD. That line gave me my entry.
  • #1,775
  • Sep 25, 2012 4:20am Sep 25, 2012 4:20am
Quoting smikester
This is a great line to trade off. If you know what you are doing. If you know what you are doing tell me how to do it.

Attachment

Attachment

Daily and hourly
Lol.....
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,776
  • Sep 25, 2012 9:28am Sep 25, 2012 9:28am
Quoting smikester
This is a great line to trade off. If you know what you are doing. If you know what you are doing tell me how to do it.

Daily and hourly
- Great observation smikester, on daily chart it's perfect line in the sand. But on my intrady charts, it seems like its becoming weaker and weaker(price invalidates this line two times).

- If you want to have a perfect entry for today, I've four things for you gathering in 0.7936 (off course with a discount 20 pips from your level 0.7956), which are important fib161% level on m15, Andrew pitchfork, Orthodox TL and 50% on daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Pound Daily.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Pound M15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Pound M15 Orthodox line.png Size: 30 KB
  • #1,777
  • Edited 3:38pm Sep 25, 2012 11:41am | Edited 3:38pm
Personally I think Mike called it some posts back.......Consolidation around the 80 handle... Eventually Euro weakness.

If it starts to play ( properly ) under .7950 its game on..

Neutral for me at the mo..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,778
  • Sep 25, 2012 5:01pm Sep 25, 2012 5:01pm
Firstly, thanks to Ziko for the excellent charts and insight. Very thought provoking.

On the monthly, I'm a bit disappointed that the June 2010 low provided the resistance needed at about .8100 to prevent a retracement. This is because on the daily it looks as though we now have a pin bar off support as above charts but irt looks as though it could run into trouble there again. Still, 100+ pips might come in handy and there doesn't seem much else on the table this week in other pairs.

Wait, though, I was looking at Gbp/Chf and remarking on the bearish divergence on the monthly. That pair is pretty much the inverse of this one.

So, I'll be looking for longs tonight and tomorrow, lower time frame entries, low risk entries. If the monthly divergence plays out what Olu suggested may come true.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,779
  • Sep 25, 2012 5:16pm Sep 25, 2012 5:16pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp120925m1with divergence in green.gif Size: 179 KB


The line chart is Gbp/Chf
Gone to a better place
  • #1,780
  • Sep 25, 2012 5:29pm Sep 25, 2012 5:29pm
Bullish divergence on Monthly, Weekly and Daily and the candle of today is a doji with false breakout of the support.. Will go up?

At the moment for any long I prefer to wait the close above the ema100..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 67 KB
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