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AUD/USD

  • #52,641
  • Sep 23, 2012 8:49pm Sep 23, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting mikijk3
In my opinion if the red TL holds, price could bounce up to the TL on top of the RM (1.272-1618 Fibonaccio extencion) going to complete the harmonic pattern and then go down to the monthly support recovering E/U correlation that will have already begun its descent..

Differently if red TL doesn't hold the price we could see immediatly a return to 1,0 and again 0,97

Attachment

What do you think?
...i did not go in to the market for up corections so far before hitting 0.95xx , monthly is scary no fight with biggest trend for my self just for few pips ..success Guys..and trade with your own risk
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It's Designed and Balance
  • #52,642
  • Sep 24, 2012 4:04am Sep 24, 2012 4:04am
GM all,
In hourly we need a close below 390 to confirme bear. The price has bounced several times at this level.
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,643
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:44am Sep 24, 2012 6:44am
Quoting maximinus
GM all,
In hourly we need a close below 390 to confirme bear. The price has bounced several times at this level.
It did once again. But for long we need to close above 420 in infra hourly.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,644
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:11am Sep 24, 2012 7:11am
The 30m candle need a close monitoring. If close near 394, that could be a good signal of the bearish trend for NY session.
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,645
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:59am Sep 24, 2012 7:59am
I think that before the End of the Year the Aussie could rally, because of the major holidays coming up. With all the presents being bought, stocks would go up in value and the dollar would weaken. After the holidays maybe a huge sell off. But this is mere speculation on my part.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,646
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:09am Sep 24, 2012 8:09am
It bounced again at 394 support line. That's the 4th time in the day. So we can consider that this support is strong. but the bounce is less higher each time. What tho conclude ? To remain confindent and keep my short opened at 427 ? Exit ? or Reverse ????
Attached Image
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,647
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:33am Sep 24, 2012 8:33am
Hidden bullish divergence on 4H chart (Stochastic 5,3,3), pullback or the end of the retracement?
  • #52,648
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:42am Sep 24, 2012 8:42am
Quoting mikijk3
Hidden bullish divergence on 4H chart (Stochastic 5,3,3), pullback or the end of the retracement?
Thanks ! Exited at 408.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,649
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:10am Sep 24, 2012 9:10am
Quoting maximinus
Thanks ! Exited at 408.
Now? I prefer to wait the stoch come back in the neutral zone before close my short position..
  • #52,650
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:15am Sep 24, 2012 9:15am
Quoting mikijk3
Now? I prefer to wait the stoch come back in the neutral zone before close my short position..
Yes. Wanted to play safe.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,651
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:46am Sep 24, 2012 9:46am
Wish id played it safe!

Im short from 1.0412 trading the decending channel on m5 with my sl @ 1.0422
Broken the channel to the upside and dont know if Ill get the chance to avoid a loss on this one...

tp @ 1.0390 but if i can kill trade for anything other than a loss may consider doing so... depends on what happens untli then.
  • #52,652
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:08am Sep 24, 2012 10:08am
Quoting Freshpips
Wish id played it safe!

Im short from 1.0412 trading the decending channel on m5 with my sl @ 1.0422
Broken the channel to the upside and dont know if Ill get the chance to avoid a loss on this one...

tp @ 1.0390 but if i can kill trade for anything other than a loss may consider doing so... depends on what happens untli then.
Shorted at 421, your SL level. Not very confident, will exit above 425. GL
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,653
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:19am Sep 24, 2012 10:19am
Quoting maximinus
Shorted at 421, your SL level. Not very confident, will exit above 425. GL

Stopped out by a pip and a half... now seems to be on way back down...
I could have increased sl but i think if you have planned a trade, you should stick to it...
Otherwise sometimes all you'll be doing is risking more and chasing a loosing trade...

Yours is looking good, good luck
  • #52,654
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:26am Sep 24, 2012 10:26am
Quoting Freshpips
I could have increased sl but i think if you have planned a trade, you should stick to it...
Otherwise sometimes all you'll be doing is risking more and chasing a loosing trade...

Yours is looking good, good luck
Yep, it's a good policy to respect rigourously our own rules, but sometimes, it's not bad to have some discretionary application.
I'm just looking for 10 to 20 pips. I'm trying to get back what I'd have won if I've exited at 394.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,655
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:33pm Sep 24, 2012 12:33pm
aaaahhhhh!!!!!
  • #52,656
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:49pm Sep 24, 2012 12:49pm
Love this pair so much....this weekly target of mine...
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MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
  • #52,657
  • Sep 24, 2012 4:04pm Sep 24, 2012 4:04pm
On the daily chart, one can see price is contracting and may test the upward TLs. One can see a divergence of the highs and highest open/close. Does this suggest that the upward TLs will eventually be broken?

4H price may break the upward TL soon, or the convergence of the recent lows and lowest open/close is going to push price to test the downward TLs. We can see price recently broke a steep downward TL and is running into a demand zone turned supply.

The hourly shows price in a supply zone. If 1.0429 is broken, then 1.0452 is the safest target.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,658
  • Sep 24, 2012 4:23pm Sep 24, 2012 4:23pm
I am in agreement with most here that this could be a range for awhile, Although I am bearish as everyone knows I acknowledge several smart traders here that are long biased this could be a pausing point before the next 'major' leg.

If we don't get a cut in October I suspect the market will resume a move upward in the meantime though unless major vol and headline risk picks up I wont be adding anything anytime soon.
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  • #52,659
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:14pm Sep 24, 2012 5:14pm
Is the 15m forming a wedge?
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,660
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:36pm Sep 24, 2012 5:36pm
The longer it takes for the move up the more bullish I am becoming... looking at maybe 1.13 as a possible target if thats the case...

There is a chance of 1.06 being a top as well for a big move down. If we see a big spike down then the uptrend may be over for a month or so min.

Any small daily ranges are bullish.
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