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My Learning Journey

  • #81
  • Sep 23, 2012 10:46am Sep 23, 2012 10:46am
After closing my positions, I will be looking to go long AUDNZD.

TP1 @ 1.27318, TP2 @ 1.27977, TP3 @ 1.30772 (T/S at BE).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD 23 September 2012.png Size: 73 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #82
  • Sep 23, 2012 10:50am Sep 23, 2012 10:50am
I'm on a divergence hunting spree right now.

USDJPY and USDCAD on Hidden Bullish Divergences. (Does not mean it will happen anytime soon, but it will happen.. Okay, duh.)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 23 September 2012.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 23 September 2012.png Size: 72 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #83
  • Sep 23, 2012 10:55am Sep 23, 2012 10:55am
Quoting aeternum
EURUSD at 4H has showed us strong rejections the last day of the week. 1.304 stood as strong as an ox (but a bear rather).

Daily went from an engulfing down to a doji looking stick figure. Not sure if it looks like a shooting star. Either way, this could either mean a continuation downwards or a reversal (You don't say?!). Honestly, I feel it will go back up next week.

Weekly has formed into an inside bar. Should we see an upside push, we will be heading up... really really far. Either way, I expect the pair to test 1.3 levels again to somehow...
On the bright side we closed above 1.29344 which has proved to be resistance before the burst to 1.3 and support on 20th September. Should we go up, we should break 1.31, unless we break lower and burst up again (or conslidate where we are now, either way I'm okay with it).
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #84
  • Sep 23, 2012 10:58am Sep 23, 2012 10:58am
Quoting aeternum
We now have a 4H inside bar. RSI has just dipped below 50.

Daily shows a shooting star like doji. RSI still above 50. Not really sure what could happen here.

Weekly shows an inside bar, similar with EURUSD. I guess we can be sure that no matter what happens next week, these two pairs will move together.
On the bright side we closed above 1.04296 which has proved to be of good support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 23 September 2012 H1.png Size: 70 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #85
  • Sep 23, 2012 11:07am Sep 23, 2012 11:07am
Quoting aeternum
It seems my call on going short at 1.63 was right although I didn't take it. 4H showed something like double tops, with rejections at 1.63x and 1.629x respectively. Followed by a doji, and a full bearish bar.

Daily shows a shooting star while weekly shows a doji after a long 6 week bullish reign.

If GBPUSD were to fall from here, I would be expecting EURUSD and AUDUSD to do the same as well.

I will look to close all my positions as soon as possible and reenter short if bearish signals continue showing.
Seems like some form of bullish divergence here while there is also some form of support just below around 1.62 to 1.61668.

I'm still looking for PA to test the 78.6 at 1.64208 as well as the upper red channel trend line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 23 September 2012 H1.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 23 September 2012 Daily.png Size: 88 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #86
  • Sep 23, 2012 2:24pm Sep 23, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting aeternum
Seems like some form of bullish divergence here while there is also some form of support just below around 1.62 to 1.61668.

I'm still looking for PA to test the 78.6 at 1.64208 as well as the upper red channel trend line.
With the close below 1.63 and a weekly doji and daily shooting star. It seems that bears have the upper hand. I am definitely not looking to go long at this moment.

As I have said last week, GBPUSD is due for retracement, which has not happened. It may happen this week. After which we could continue our climb to 1.64 (as per EURUSD climb) before we free fall.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #87
  • Sep 23, 2012 2:28pm Sep 23, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting aeternum
On the bright side we closed above 1.04296 which has proved to be of good support.
Here I spotted 2 ways AUDUSD can move on. Seeing as its respecting the blue fib levels so much, I figured it would be doing something like this. The previous down move could either be a retracement of the up move after the main retracement, or it could be a 3rd corrective wave entirely.

Edit: Forgot to add. RSI is below 50 and touching 40. MACD shows downward movements as well.

We either see 1.03366 or 1.06238 from here on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 23 September 2012 Update.png Size: 81 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #88
  • Sep 23, 2012 2:32pm Sep 23, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting aeternum
On the bright side we closed above 1.29344 which has proved to be resistance before the burst to 1.3 and support on 20th September. Should we go up, we should break 1.31, unless we break lower and burst up again (or conslidate where we are now, either way I'm okay with it).
These are the two ways I see EURUSD moving upwards. Assuming EW, I may still be spot on here. Corrective actions to 1.28091 may be the limit before a 1.31 retest. My eyes are set on 1.31242 - 1.3177.

The daily doji may have something to say about the downward movement though MACD is going down and RSI is dipping back lower as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 23 September 2012 Update.png Size: 87 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #89
  • Sep 23, 2012 2:35pm Sep 23, 2012 2:35pm
In fact EURUSD and AUDUSD may just shoot back up if GBPUSD is just lagging. If GBPUSD does its retracement now and EURUSD and AUDUSD shoots up now, it means that GBPUSD will go up the week after (I THINK.)

Edit: But then again, COT indicators are actually right smack in the middle right now. We could be seeing a new trend or a continuation back down.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #90
  • Sep 23, 2012 11:15pm Sep 23, 2012 11:15pm
I got stopped out of EURUSD at 1.293. Apparently that was a spike down, it has since not gone that low, floating around 1.295. AUDUSD turned into a hammer in 4H. Gonna stop opening any trades to prevent losing money now.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #91
  • Sep 23, 2012 11:31pm Sep 23, 2012 11:31pm
EURUSD not letting up on bearish movements although there is a possible gartley move here. My stop loss may have been hit for nothing.

GBPUSD failed to hold on to any gains and has declined to 1.621x. Seems the daily shooting star is giving way to a retracement.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #92
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:53am Sep 24, 2012 5:53am
AUDUSD revisiting past downward thin purple trendline and upward thicker purple trendline. Could we get a bounce here to the upside?

Edit: Or we could fall straight to 1.03366 and bounce upwards from there. Up pretty high is my estimation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 24 September 2012 PM.png Size: 76 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #93
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:56am Sep 24, 2012 5:56am
EURUSD broke below 1.29, GBPUSD broke below 1.62 and AUDUSD broke below 1.04. All signs of bearish movements. However if the daily close isn't below any of these key psychological resistance areas which we've been at for a few weeks now, it could only mean a bullish movement soon.

This is a dangerous area to place any entries. It would be better to simply wait it out or hedge 2 of the pairs and play it out.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #94
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:09pm Sep 24, 2012 12:09pm
I have decided to spend some time off until I close all my AUDUSD positions at 1.08. And I refuse to close any earlier than that.

I still stand my ground on all my trade ideas from earlier on. Everything except NZDUSD (you have a better entry to short this one).

For the short term, it seems we have risk aversion and therefore a bearish movement for all these /USD pairs.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #95
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:09am Sep 25, 2012 2:09am
Here's why I'm still bullish on all 3 pairs.

We have an uptrend coming since August and all these consolidations have been showing bullish patterns.

AUDUSD clearly shows a falling wedge in an uptrend.

EURUSD shows some sort of a falling wedge / rectangle.

Edit: The green line shows a good entry point, while the red is a Stop Loss. You could definitely adjust the stop loss to fit something on your charts, but I doubt we will break the red line (we might break the green).

GBPUSD shows a consolidating rectangle in an uptrend (aka bullish rectangle).

All 3 show signs of a bullish upbeat after this, clearly proving that this is simply a consolidation. Other signs of how it will not go bearish yet: There have been no sharp spikes upwards to initiate a cause to sell, or any possible movements that have given enough momentum to boost us back down. Everything points to the fact that what we are seeing is simple consolidation and this will eventually help shoot us upwards more, up until the point where we get sharper rallies at points like 1.32, 1.64 and 1.07/8 where we will crash back down to earth.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 25 September 2012.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 25 September 2012.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 25 September 2012.png Size: 79 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #96
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:14am Sep 25, 2012 2:14am
Obeying the trend line I drew last month. It has completed its upward cycle. Time to complete the downward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 25 September 2012.png Size: 61 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #97
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:35am Sep 25, 2012 2:35am
Posting more on updates of pairs that I have not started trading yet. Just thought it'd be good for my future references as well as any traders who are looking for more opinions if they already trade these pairs.

I have been keeping an eye on USDJPY and AUDNZD though. Seems like a good time to buy for both, maybe wait a little for USDJPY.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD 25 September 2012.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 25 September 2012.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 25 September 2012 Daily.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 25 September 2012.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 25 September 2012.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 25 September 2012.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 25 September 2012.png Size: 69 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #98
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:44pm Sep 25, 2012 2:44pm
We just dipped below 1.3, 1.04 and 1.62 once again. Wonder if the next few days would have been any different.

Still looking for a AUDUSD upside.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #99
  • Sep 26, 2012 1:24am Sep 26, 2012 1:24am
AUDUSD has broken the trendlines and is now dipping towards 61.8 fib level of 1.03366. It seems that this is a larger retracement from previous highs. We should not be going any lower than 1.03366. I expect a continuation back onwards to 1.05x and 1.06x, by this week or next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 26 September 2012 AM.png Size: 77 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #100
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:32am Sep 26, 2012 7:32am
Quoting aeternum
AUDUSD has broken the trendlines and is now dipping towards 61.8 fib level of 1.03366. It seems that this is a larger retracement from previous highs. We should not be going any lower than 1.03366. I expect a continuation back onwards to 1.05x and 1.06x, by this week or next week.
We just pounced on 1.03366. Time for make or break.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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