My Learning Journey

GBPUSD now testing 1.63, EURUSD has broken 1.3 and AUDUSD has broken 1.05. Looks like its risk on again and I was right on the retracement calls. We continue our bullish rampage until the top of the channels for all 3 pairs. Then we shoot back down. I expect a bearish October.

USDJPY and USDCAD taking a trashing but seems to be forming a new trendline.

Scalping EURUSD longs. Waiting for a retracement after that nonsensical spike upwards. After entry, I'm targetting 1.3145 / 26

Forgot to mention there was an inside bar. We should go to 1.07!

NZDUSD is nearly at 0.835. Will be looking to go short soon.

Got a small long EURUSD at 1.30176. Targeting 1.3177. Let's do this Euro!

We have dropped out of 1.05 and 1.3, we are also far away from 1.63 now. Retracement before a big burst up?

What on earth is happening? We were rising up just fine and now we're almost at a doji with 30 minutes to candle close. There is just so much uncertainty in the market right now.

Evening update for the pairs:

EURUSD has gone past 1.3 once more and looks to test 1.304. A break past this point brings us to 1.308 which has proved to be an invisible past support and resistance (I only added it after I took the screenshot). I'm still looking towards 1.3177.

AUDUSD has gone past 1.05 and is now testing 23.6 fib level of 1.05141 which has stopped PA just 4 - 5 hours ago. A break past here brings us to trendline and R2 at 1.0542/55, after which we will see 78.6 at 1.5822. I'm still looking for the 1.06 test and break, and onwards march to 1.07132.

GBPUSD is now forming an inside bar. A break upwards past 1.63 will call for shorts all the way up. I haven't really been placing many fib levels on this pair so I won't know the exact levels. There's a 78.6 at 1.64208 though. I am actually looking for this pair to test 1.64.

Risk is on! Let's do this!

USDCAD barely moved even with all the CAD data. Possibly because of the mix of positive and negativity.

Gold has gone past 1780, we may see 1800 next week.

KABOOM! Retracement done!

Just tried to plot EW. I'm not good at it, but I get a feeling this may happen unless we continue going up from here.

AUDUSD failed to break my fib level at 1.05141 and has sunk below 1.05 once more. It could form a 4H inside bar or a double top. Hoping for an inside bar followed by a bullish bar after.

EURUSD is sinking below 1.3 as well. Seems like someone is defending 1.304 with their lives. And we have yet to test 1.305.

GBPUSD has failed to break / stay above 1.63. Better luck next time! 4H shooting star might happen now.

EURUSD at 4H has showed us strong rejections the last day of the week. 1.304 stood as strong as an ox (but a bear rather).

Daily went from an engulfing down to a doji looking stick figure. Not sure if it looks like a shooting star. Either way, this could either mean a continuation downwards or a reversal (You don't say?!). Honestly, I feel it will go back up next week.

Weekly has formed into an inside bar. Should we see an upside push, we will be heading up... really really far. Either way, I expect the pair to test 1.3 levels again to somehow form a triple top. We could also see 1.27, so expect a choppy week ahead.

Edit: Weekly shows hidden bearish divergence.

We now have a 4H inside bar. RSI has just dipped below 50.

Daily shows a shooting star like doji. RSI still above 50. Not really sure what could happen here.

Weekly shows an inside bar, similar with EURUSD. I guess we can be sure that no matter what happens next week, these two pairs will move together.

It seems my call on going short at 1.63 was right although I didn't take it. 4H showed something like double tops, with rejections at 1.63x and 1.629x respectively. Followed by a doji, and a full bearish bar.

Daily shows a shooting star while weekly shows a doji after a long 6 week bullish reign.

If GBPUSD were to fall from here, I would be expecting EURUSD and AUDUSD to do the same as well.

I will look to close all my positions as soon as possible and reenter short if bearish signals continue showing.

Because of such uncertainty, I decided to check on Gold prices as well.

We saw a huge burst past 1780 which did not last long and fell back down, forming a doji like shooting star on 4H which followed with bearish bars.

On daily, we closed with a shooting star, but we are still supported by a fib level. We may only be consolidating.

On weekly, we have a doji after 4 weeks of continuous bullish movement. Will we see the end here? Or will the break of 1780 show something entirely different? I'm still unsure but I feel that gold will test 1780 once more and possibly even 1800 next week. If we fail the 1780 again, that's a rejection with double tops on both daily and weekly charts. Then we'll go downnnnnn.

USDJPY has continued declining since tapping onto my 79.14 prediction 3 days ago. It has actually bounced off a trendline that I drew from April 2012. Should we test 77 or 76, I will look to buy the dips.

After seeing the COT sheet I made, I have decided that it may help some traders with decision making. I seem to be biased and not focus on the COT, which I actually should because it tells a story.

I will post it up later in the night.

The 2nd set of percentage numbers at the end belongs to USD. I put it there as easy comparison for myself.

EURUSD: Has been in the green for the past few weeks, which stands true to what PA has been doing up until this week when it failed to break 1.32 and fell below 1.3. There should be a decrease in net longs next week.

GBPUSD: Has not been changing much although it has been bouncing up from 40% to 50%+. The rise in GBPUSD may be due to the decrease in net long positions in USD.

AUDUSD: Has constantly been rising from 55% to 75% at max where we saw 1.05/1.06. We have since come down slowly from there up to 1.05 this week. We have some up room if USD's net longs decrease. Should AUDUSD continue going down to its lowest 16% from here on, we may see parity soon enough (4 - 5 weeks).

Edit: Just realised it may be difficult to understand. The chart goes:

Date | Non-comm Long | Non-comm short | Comm Long | Comm Short | Non-Comm Net Positions | Comm Net Positions | Net Positions | % Long for Currency | % Short for Currency | Notes / PA | % Long for USD | % Short for USD.

As I mentioned on the first post, I have decided to try out PipTrapper's MACD indicator.

I have just analysed the weekly view of my charts and I see plenty of hidden bearish divergences. I am still looking for a top of 1.32 for EURUSD and 1.64 from GBPUSD (I don't think 1.64 is realistic now) and at least 1.07 coming from AUDUSD.

I still think that EURUSD and AUDUSD has the potential to reach those tops, but 1.64 is probably impossible. Shorting GBPUSD now would probably be good, unless a better position appears.

It is true that a few weeks ago everyone said the prices that all these pairs are at are extremely overbought prices. Euro is having its problems. China's economy is taking a beating from Europe and US' woes which in turn affects Australia's economy (New Zealand's too). Great Britain depends on Europe, which in actual fact is really just saying they need help too.

This does not mean that the United States are having a green light signal to be bullish again. QE is not done and we may see more of it by the end of this year. Should it be announced once more (be it a continuation or an increase in amount), it should cause USD to drop again.