Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#52,601
Sep 20, 2012 2:56pm Sep 20, 2012 2:56pm

jplazard
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts

I hope your not basing this off Gold as a correlation because right now and as I have wrote a month or two back there are times where yes Gold/AU are highly direct but there are times like were in right now where they are not direct and the reading is near 0. Months can pass before AUD mimics Gold directly and if the fixed side is worried about a cut in the next two months it will not follow Gold if it should break out here soon.

HG PA PLL Coal Iron Ore (the last two are still under pressure)
are cases for a correlation but again AUD has not participated at all in the recent run ups at least not strong direct.

I won't even touch grains on correlation because that is its own beast and the historical coefficients do not support a constant inverse/direct reading to really base a system around.

#52,602
Sep 20, 2012 3:00pm Sep 20, 2012 3:00pm

sidhujag
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Non-Member | 4,719 Posts

Not gold I've posted it a few times... alot of commodities ready to rock. Cotton/Coffee are ones im watching. Corr coefficient is around 0.65-0.7

#52,603
Sep 20, 2012 3:05pm Sep 20, 2012 3:05pm

jplazard
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts

i have never compared I will look thank your pointing this out It gives me something to see on the bull front

#52,604
Sep 20, 2012 3:12pm Sep 20, 2012 3:12pm

fmc2
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 11 Posts

Any thoughts on big macro and geo political thoughts on the aud in relation to china japan tensions ?

#52,605
Sep 20, 2012 4:31pm Sep 20, 2012 4:31pm

Hyperion
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Focus on the action not the outcome | 633 Posts

I also like commodities long term but short term think they are struggling (see chart, down trend resitance/rejection and also coincided at 50% retrace). Honestly if I had the discipline I would ONLY buy dips in commodities and hence AUD/USD. But I don't. So I try and keep my shorts at 50% the volume of my longs. Right now I think the commodity picture coupled with market positioning spells a lower currency. The RBA are just starting to sell more than they need to in the course of their operations, this is always a precurser to actually large selling to manage the height of their currency. (see announcement yesterday, I'll post if anyone missed it). Market positioning is stupidly long Silver, dangerously long AUD and the market hasn't even started selling the EUR again (ok finally started again last night).

(copied from my news provider)
BUZZ-RBA ups the ante in the AUD game -

20-Sep-2012 15:23
The RBA is quietly taking steps to offset the pressure from the high AUD consistent with them having devoted a substantial portion to the exchange rate in their latest minutes. Data released today shows the Bank sold almost AUD 500 mil more (AUD 455 mil) than what was required to offset its FX sales to the Australian Govt, its biggest customer. In this, the Bank is following a pattern. They will lean into it initially and escalate as the AUD keeps rising. The next step typically is verbal intervention then if required direct, noisy, large scale intervention. In the current environment however, they appear to be positioning themselves to cut rates in lieu of or prior to any large scale intervention. All said and done, the days of benign neglect towards a higher AUD are well and truly over.

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#52,606
Sep 20, 2012 4:41pm Sep 20, 2012 4:41pm

Sundiom
| Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Trader | 4 Posts

We have still trend up (Daily), because price is above the kumo, senkou span A is above senkou B, the cloud is thick, chinkou span above kumo, strong level kijun sen ( blue line )... Currently it is for me correction. I'm looking for take long in timeframe 4h.

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#52,607
Sep 20, 2012 4:49pm Sep 20, 2012 4:49pm

sidhujag
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Non-Member | 4,719 Posts

23.4 has to be the low or else I see a bear come in

#52,608
Sep 20, 2012 6:18pm Sep 20, 2012 6:18pm

jplazard
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts

Break and 4h close below 1.04 opens the door for ABC extensions.
First target 78.6 (1.0328) 2nd Target 88.6% (1.0309) and last target 1.02239. Any close above 1.04851 invalidates the Extension call.

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#52,609
Sep 20, 2012 6:43pm Sep 20, 2012 6:43pm

dab
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 952 Posts

Quoting Hyperion

Disliked

I also like commodities long term but short term think they are struggling (see chart, down trend resitance/rejection and also coincided at 50% retrace). Honestly if I had the discipline I would ONLY buy dips in commodities and hence AUD/USD. But I don't. So I try and keep my shorts at 50% the volume of my longs. Right now I think the commodity picture coupled with market positioning spells a lower currency. The RBA are just starting to sell more than they need to in the course of their operations, this is always a precurser to actually large selling...

Ignored

Thanks Hyperion! An interesting perspective. I'm curious as to who your news provider is or how we can monitor RBA actions of this nature. I googled the heading but came up short, will also look around RBA site.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

#52,610
Sep 20, 2012 7:41pm Sep 20, 2012 7:41pm

Hyperion
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Focus on the action not the outcome | 633 Posts

Quoting dab

Disliked

Thanks Hyperion! An interesting perspective. I'm curious as to who your news provider is or how we can monitor RBA actions of this nature. I googled the heading but came up short, will also look around RBA site.

Ignored

Hi Dabs,

It was Reuters. Cheers.

#52,611
Sep 20, 2012 8:23pm Sep 20, 2012 8:23pm

dab
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 952 Posts

Thanks Hyperion. Found general info on RBA site about management of foreign currency reserves but nothing that looked like updates of current position or charts on history.

Had a look on Reuters and couldn't find the article (which doesn't give me confidence that I'd spot something in future.) Tried searching on RBA, AUD Game & on the full article heading and no matches

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

#52,612
Sep 20, 2012 8:43pm Sep 20, 2012 8:43pm

Hyperion
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Focus on the action not the outcome | 633 Posts

Quoting dab

Disliked

Thanks Hyperion. Found general info on RBA site about management of foreign currency reserves but nothing that looked like updates of current position or charts on history.

Had a look on Reuters and couldn't find the article (which doesn't give me confidence that I'd spot something in future.) Tried searching on RBA, AUD Game & on the full article heading and no matches

Ignored

Hmmm you probably have to subscribe to certain feeds within Reuters to get it. Analysts from all the banks get the RBA stuff to interpret anyway. It's not hugely earth shattering. Basically they buy at AUD 68 cents and sell at 1.08 roughly. in between do they care? nope, do they mark to market? nope. The previous comment was just pointing out that chances are rising that they will sell more up here because of the self-correcting component of the economy (the exchange rate) ain't budging off the highs and they'd be happier if it did....

#52,613
Sep 20, 2012 9:34pm Sep 20, 2012 9:34pm

jplazard
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts

Here is the Dollar on Daily and Weekly on daily we closed above 78.6% but weekly we closed almost exact at 78.6 (79.425) this does not give me confidence to add on Short AUD in fact if I can get it before 1.05 i will start taking some profits that i should of taken on China PMI selloff.

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#52,614
Sep 20, 2012 10:02pm Sep 20, 2012 10:02pm

jplazard
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts

Sidhujag great calls all this week hats off..

Here is the Weekly downward resistance let see where we go from here.

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#52,615
Sep 20, 2012 10:18pm Sep 20, 2012 10:18pm

SemperOorah
| Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Trader | 225 Posts

Chart looks similar to yours jplazard. Also good to see someone else using thinkorswim, seems like very few do.

Looks like it's gonna roll over to me. Short at 1.0470, lets see where it takes us.

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