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  • #2,021
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:51am Sep 20, 2012 9:51am
S&P500 puts in its low just ahead of the numbers and now sits at its highs for the day.....

2920 may just be the end of this corrective move off 3173, having turned in sympathy with equities right at the 38.2% retrace off the pre-FED announcement base. 2896 woulld be a text book perfect measured objective to end the sequence in two equal legs.

We trade 2957 with Long signals forming on my Breakout system,... no qualifying entries yet.... but looking strong... need to get current bar to close above the 10 DMA area to qualify for an entry Long. May not quite make it.

I would prefer to see a fast money exhaustion move a little lower... and maybe we will still get one into 2900 where I have buy orders layered in ahead of 2900 in the mean reversion system account. Too late in the day for that to happen most likely.... but there is always tomorrow.
  • #2,022
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:59am Sep 20, 2012 9:59am
Or at least that is how EURUSD looks purely from a technical perspective.... fundamentally things are not so clear...

All the central banks are in money printing mode, with China also pumping in its own way....

Is The Bernanke's money printing really dollar negative when the world's central banks all have their respective money printing presses running at the same time... Japan, Britain, ECB and the US... even CHina in anotehr way?

If its not, and in the face of an ECB rate cut in a couple of weeks, why the high valuation in EURUSD?

Reduced risk of complete collapse is the only reason, and that doesn't justify the entire 1000+ pip run from the July bottom.
  • #2,023
  • Sep 20, 2012 10:35am Sep 20, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Crassius

We trade 2957 with Long signals forming on my Breakout system,... no qualifying entries yet.... but looking strong... need to get current bar to close above the 10 DMA area to qualify for an entry Long. May not quite make it.
Momentum fizzled ahead of the key resistance 2963, and a failure to close a bar above that figure caused no signals to be triggered on my breakout system...

Back to waiting for a fill on my orders ahead of and layered into 2900 against 2883. Probably not gonna happen today.... but you never know....

Need a news story now

Caught a nice Kiwi/Dollar entry off the bottom of its channel to keep me company for a while.
  • #2,024
  • Edited 7:31pm Sep 20, 2012 7:18pm | Edited 7:31pm
The question is....

Scenario A: Was the 2919 print today the end of a wave C as part of the larger correction off 3173?

Scenraio B: Or is there one more push toward 2900.... as 2896 would make a nice and neat decline in two equidistant legs.... something we often see.
_______________________________________________________________

I like to see the end of trends or other turning points be put in on a dramatic move like exhaustion. I mistrust bottoms or tops that we melt into. Yesterday seems to qualify as a valid end. Yet....

EUR is catching a bid early in Asia off of Spain bailout request to come next week hopium.

If you like scenario A, going long right here before the break above the 200 HMA of 2975 right now,would get you in early for a resumption of the larger uptrend toward upper 3200's.

I'm gonna go with Scenario B, and fade 2980 against 3000 with a small order, playing a move to unfold Friday for one more push to 2896 (scenario B), taking profit just ahead of 2900 for a 2 to 1 Risk/Reward ratio.

I may get burned if we get bailout Hopium smokers token up a storm early in European session Friday, but my gut tells me 3000 is gonna be hard to crack after the brutal downfall yesterday. By the time we approach 3000 it will be outside the upper boundry of the downtrend channel too. I'll keep the position small... 1/2 percent as a speculative play but one with merit, and look to take profit and reverse to Long at 2900ish.
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  • #2,025
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:10pm Sep 20, 2012 8:10pm
nice post........just wondering if you caught the CME margin cut....imagine you did but here it isl

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-lo...ted-margins-12


Quoting Crassius
The question is....

Scenario A: Was the 2919 print today the end of a wave C as part of the larger correction off 3173?

Scenraio B: Or is there one more push toward 2900.... as 2896 would make a nice and neat decline in two equidistant legs.... something we often see.
_______________________________________________________________

I like to see the end of trends or other turning points be put in on a dramatic move like exhaustion. I mistrust bottoms or tops that we melt into. Yesterday seems to qualify as a valid end. Yet....

EUR...
  • #2,026
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:28pm Sep 20, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting Crassius

I'm gonna go with Scenario B, and fade 2980 against 3000 with a small order, playing a move to unfold Friday for one more push to 2896 (scenario B), taking profit just ahead of 2900 for a 2 to 1 Risk/Reward ratio.
Filled.... Good Risk Reward Offered, and sized small as its speculative.
  • #2,027
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:54am Sep 21, 2012 12:54am
Quoting Crassius
Filled.... Good Risk Reward Offered, and sized small as its speculative.

Good Morning --

I'm 20 pips underwater as we press right up against 3000 with a stop loss at 3015 well above the falling trend channel off the 3173 high and 50 HMA.

Wide risk on appetite in Asia to spill over into European session, which lacks data announcements to get things moving. This means session will be dominated by stocks action, which are pressing a breakout to new multi-year highs.

3000 holding for now.... position was sized small with good Risk/Reward so if it goes south so be it....

Need a good negative news story to take the risk on pot off the boil.
  • #2,028
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:18am Sep 21, 2012 1:18am
Quoting Crassius
Good Morning --

I'm 20 pips underwater as we press right up against 3000 .

Stops tripped on a possible stop hunt in early trade -- ZERO follow through-- after stops triggered EURUSD Falls 10 pips back through 3000...

Keep hope alive... Italy provided some negative news flow.... need some more cold water poured onto the Spain Thursday Bailout request Hopium...
  • #2,029
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:35am Sep 21, 2012 2:35am
Stops to BE
  • #2,030
  • Sep 21, 2012 3:37am Sep 21, 2012 3:37am
Quoting Crassius
Stops to BE

That fast money move up took me out
  • #2,031
  • Sep 24, 2012 12:47am Sep 24, 2012 12:47am
Eurodollar - Short term intraday view
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  • #2,032
  • Sep 24, 2012 3:45am Sep 24, 2012 3:45am
Quoting Crassius

Scenraio B: Or is there one more push toward 2900.... as 2896 would make a nice and neat decline in two equidistant legs.... something we often see.

Print at 2896 fullfills the equidistant ABC correction.
  • #2,033
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:42am Sep 24, 2012 7:42am
Long EuroUSD at 2895....

Key breakout below 2880 will dump 'em.
  • #2,034
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:59am Sep 24, 2012 9:59am
Quoting Crassius
Long EuroUSD at 2895....

Key breakout below 2880 will dump 'em.
Profits booked + 25 pips.... will look to reload lower.... probably 2865/55
  • #2,035
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:06am Sep 24, 2012 10:06am
Quoting Crassius
Profits booked + 25 pips.... will look to reload lower.... probably 2865/55

Would also be interested in fading 2950 -- European close in 25 minutes

I am done for the day so will look for good place to fade a rally tomorrow, looking to buy into support lower 2865/55ish... depends on where the downtrend channel on the hourly from the 3173 high falls.
  • #2,036
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:28am Sep 24, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Crassius
Would also be interested in fading 2950 -- European close in 25 minutes

I am done for the day so will look for good place to fade a rally tomorrow, looking to buy into support lower 2865/55ish... depends on where the downtrend channel on the hourly from the 3173 high falls.

Continuous failure of 2915ish... the 38.2 retrace of the September move higher underscores that the downtrend mostly contained within the downtrend channel on the hourly is still operative.

2900 held strong today, but all attempts higher failed at lower and lower levels. This smells of losing longs continually adding to positions, only to have their rally's sold into by the smart money.....

Risk/Reward does not make shorting 2915 a good bet.... hope for a fools rally to sell into with more room to run once you're short, or be patient and buy the bounce lower....

Leave the chop to others....
  • #2,037
  • Edited 1:15am Sep 25, 2012 1:02am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting Crassius
Would also be interested in fading 2950 --

I caught a fill last night at 2948 shorting from there in one account.

The break back below the 1.2915ish 38.2% retrace of the September gains is encouraging and the 200 DMA currently around 2825 is eyed by many traders as coming into focus...

I am also short @ 2917 in the Breakout System account. It is the nature of breakout systems that they get in "late".... they work because you have momentum behind you to carry you to a target before a retrace that takes you out can occur....moreoften than not in a well designed system.

Today's chart is confusing, with two competing Elliott wave counts that conflict. One says the ABC off 3173 is complete and we should expect a bounce toward the highs..... another, and the one I am going with, suggests a complex correction with the current ABC completed pattern interior to a larger ABC to play out, with Friday's 3040ish double top another A wave, and B wave to be put in lower still around the channel bottom... 2855 at least.

When the Elliot counts get confusing like this...as they often do in corrections, they become less predictive.... I believe it will take a bit of fundamental/news flow to tip the balance one way or the other.... if we take out 2990..... then the second count gains weight. Given Europe's talent for disappointing, I'm going with the second count and expect to see 2855.... and on toward the 200 DMA 2925.... may not make it quite there, but it will become a magnet as we approach.... channel bottom more important to me.
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  • #2,038
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:24am Sep 25, 2012 2:24am
Quoting Crassius
I caught a fill last night at 2948 shorting from there in one account.



I am also short @ 2917 in the Breakout System account. I

Stop moved to BE on the BreakOut trade...

booked profity in the short from 1.2948 at 1.2898 +50...

Still looking lower..... Buys layered in from 2860 - 55
  • #2,039
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:29am Sep 25, 2012 2:29am
Quoting Crassius
Stop moved to BE on the BreakOut trade...

Stopped out BE.... hope I didn't give up too early on that one, but there are a lot of buyers sub 2900 and it had plenty of momentum going in and plenty of time to find its way lower.... at some point it's no longer worth the risk of going underwater.... a good entry will turn into a better trade next time.

1.2925 would have stopped me out anyway as the stop loss had cranked down that far.
  • #2,040
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:33am Sep 25, 2012 2:33am
Quoting Crassius
Stopped out BE.... hope I didn't give up too early on that one, but there are a lot of buyers sub 2900 and it had plenty of momentum going in and plenty of time to find its way lower.... at some point it's no longer worth the risk of going underwater.... a good entry will turn into a better trade next time.

1.2925 would have stopped me out anyway as the stop loss had cranked down that far.
As thought this PA bounced from 23.6% of 1100 pips move . around 1.288.. So this may take it around 1.297.. Better to avoid shorts atleast till then .
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