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  • #41
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:02pm Sep 19, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting aeternum
After seeing the weekly for AUDUSD, I am no longer confident of going long on this. The close for the weekly candle will tell a good story of the next step. But it should be safe to say 1.05 and 1.04 will be revisited once again within this week. Yes, both.
I don't see us breaking out of this range for the rest of this week. So be sure not to set your sights too high.

With both EURUSD and AUDUSD going into inside bar mode and GBPUSD turning into a doji. Things are looking interesting. We might actually head down from here. Bearish week next week?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 19 September Weekly.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 19 September Weekly.png Size: 81 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:12pm Sep 19, 2012 11:12pm
It seems like we have a head and shoulders completed here. Will it continue? 1.041 proving to be a challenge still. I hope we don't break 1.04.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 20 September 2012.png Size: 61 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #43
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:49am Sep 20, 2012 2:49am
Quoting aeternum
It seems like we have a head and shoulders completed here. Will it continue? 1.041 proving to be a challenge still. I hope we don't break 1.04.
1.04 broken. Lowest we went was at 1.036x. Neckline of head and shoulders at 1.03366. May not be going back down again.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #44
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:51am Sep 20, 2012 2:51am
Quoting aeternum
I don't see us breaking out of this range for the rest of this week. So be sure not to set your sights too high.

With both EURUSD and AUDUSD going into inside bar mode and GBPUSD turning into a doji. Things are looking interesting. We might actually head down from here. Bearish week next week?
Looks like I was wrong about breaking out of the range. AUDUSD looks like a double top while EURUSD has become a definite inside bar.

Could we have a bullish week next week?

I still see an AUDUSD long.

Lost too much money already. Gonna take a break from adding any more positions until my AUDUSD profit.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #45
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:58am Sep 20, 2012 11:58am
Because I only have positions open in AUDUSD, I will only be posting images of it.

And I'm looking at a daily hammer close. We have about 11 hours left, so price can really go anywhere. If it closes as a hammer, I think we can safely expect price to continue its hike back upwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 20 September 2012 Update.png Size: 71 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #46
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm
Quoting aeternum
Because I only have positions open in AUDUSD, I will only be posting images of it.

And I'm looking at a daily hammer close. We have about 11 hours left, so price can really go anywhere. If it closes as a hammer, I think we can safely expect price to continue its hike back upwards.
Seems like a double bottom now. Not sure what PA intends to do. May even form a nice doji by closing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 20 September 2012 Update 2.png Size: 77 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #47
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:34pm Sep 20, 2012 2:34pm
Just saw someone asking on another thread. Asking targets for upside movement.

"I think we're capped by 1.3177 which is the 78.6 fib from 2012 highs. It coincides with a major downward trend line which comes from 2011 highs, each time price hits the trend line, it tend to bounce down. A break here could let us see 1.32 psychological resistance followed by 1.328xx which has proved to be of some resistance, it is also May's highest point.

Fail to break the channel and we head all the way back down to oblivion."

That was what I replied. Now I wonder if I'm right. If I am, my system may actually be working for me. Now time to have some discipline, patience and trust.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 20 September 2012 PM.png Size: 76 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #48
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:39pm Sep 20, 2012 2:39pm
Took a look at GBPUSD as well. Because I see a bullish divergence, I'm expecting it to continue on its upward trend although there hasn't been much of a consolidation or retracement thus far.

PA for today shows a hammer so far so it may indicate a sign of buying power and reversal which coincides with all the information I have. 61.8 pivot at 1.61668, rising channel, bullish divergence. We can expect it to test 1.64208 which is the 78.6 from 2011 highs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 20 September 2012 PM.png Size: 82 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #49
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:41pm Sep 20, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting aeternum
Just saw someone asking on another thread. Asking targets for upside movement.

"I think we're capped by 1.3177 which is the 78.6 fib from 2012 highs. It coincides with a major downward trend line which comes from 2011 highs, each time price hits the trend line, it tend to bounce down. A break here could let us see 1.32 psychological resistance followed by 1.328xx which has proved to be of some resistance, it is also May's highest point.

Fail to break the channel and we head all the way back down to oblivion."

That was what I replied....
I'm not good with EW. But this seems like wave 4. We will be seeing wave 5 upwards soon followed by a correction / reversal. I think everything fits perfectly so far. Let's see how it will play out.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #50
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:51pm Sep 20, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting aeternum
Seems like a double bottom now. Not sure what PA intends to do. May even form a nice doji by closing.
Was at DB's thread and he mentioned that this run up may only be a bull trap.

I've had some doubts even before he posted it, thus I have yet to make a new position. Maybe its because I learned from my mistake from yesterday.

The valid 4H head and shoulders points at a neckline of 1.03366 where 61.8 is currently at. Upon touching down there, we should continue heading back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 20 September 2012 Update 3.png Size: 77 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #51
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:56pm Sep 20, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting aeternum
was at db's thread and he mentioned that this run up may only be a bull trap.

I've had some doubts even before he posted it, thus i have yet to make a new position. Maybe its because i learned from my mistake from yesterday.

The valid 4h head and shoulders points at a neckline of 1.03366 where 61.8 is currently at. Upon touching down there, we should continue heading back up.
Quoting aeternum
AUDUSD Long @ 1.0527, TP 1.06126
tp1 @ 1.065, tp2 @ 1.07132, tp3 @ 1.08
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #52
  • Sep 20, 2012 3:06pm Sep 20, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting aeternum
Was at DB's thread and he mentioned that this run up may only be a bull trap.

I've had some doubts even before he posted it, thus I have yet to make a new position. Maybe its because I learned from my mistake from yesterday.

The valid 4H head and shoulders points at a neckline of 1.03366 where 61.8 is currently at. Upon touching down there, we should continue heading back up.
1H close. We may go lower now since its overbought on 1H as well (my FxTrade still has StochRSI up for scalping purposes).

May actually see 1.03366 next, then up to 1.065 and beyond.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 20 September 2012 Update 4.png Size: 59 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #53
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:19am Sep 21, 2012 12:19am
Quoting aeternum
It went lower, but came back up obediently. If it closes in a doji today, I will be looking to buy until 1.3175 to 1.319 areas, possible overshoot to 1.32, but I don't think we'll go any further than this.
EURUSD did not close lower and is now testing 1.3. Going long here can give a target of at least 1.3177.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:21am Sep 21, 2012 12:21am
Quoting aeternum
Took a look at GBPUSD as well. Because I see a bullish divergence, I'm expecting it to continue on its upward trend although there hasn't been much of a consolidation or retracement thus far.

PA for today shows a hammer so far so it may indicate a sign of buying power and reversal which coincides with all the information I have. 61.8 pivot at 1.61668, rising channel, bullish divergence. We can expect it to test 1.64208 which is the 78.6 from 2011 highs.
Went past daily pivots and is now attempting a 1.62687 retest of weekly highs. A break past this gives us 1.63 (some invisible resistance before that at 1.62970) and we may eventually see 1.64208.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #55
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:23am Sep 21, 2012 12:23am
Quoting aeternum
1H close. We may go lower now since its overbought on 1H as well (my FxTrade still has StochRSI up for scalping purposes).

May actually see 1.03366 next, then up to 1.065 and beyond.
Daily close was an engulfing bar. Price continued rising to 1.04745. Expecting a slight retracement here. Looking to go long at 1.041/2 if price manages to get there. Possible long at 1.03xx as well. If price continues going up, I don't stand to lose as I have positions up there already.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #56
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:37am Sep 21, 2012 12:37am
EURUSD 4H forming a bullish divergence. On the daily, it broke past the RSI trend line but is still forming a bullish divergence.

AUDUSD was expected to go lower back to 1.03xx levels but instead it shot back upwards past 1.0475, causing me to miss my better entry level. I will be looking for a retracement here to go long. AUDUSD daily shows an engulfing bar yesterday with a long wick below. This shows that buyers have got the upper hand here. Should we continue with a thick bar today, it seems that we can look for a mid-term long position. My targets are still projected at 1.07132.

GBPUSD 4H is about to touch the RSI trend line. We may see a retest of 1.63 before a drop as this is a bearish divergence (I think). Not comfortable with this pair right now. Will wait for it to run itself out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 21 September 2012 4H.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 21 September 2012 Daily.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 21 September 2012 4H.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 21 September 2012 Daily.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 21 September 2012 4H.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 21 September 2012 Daily.png Size: 75 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #57
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:42am Sep 21, 2012 12:42am
Do not forget we're in a big trading range for GBPUSD despite any trend lines or channels and this is a supply area. If you're looking towards risk:reward trades, this is a good time to short, even if it goes up, you can continue shorting it up till 1.64. That's the maximum I feel it would go before shooting back down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 21 September 2012 AM.png Size: 88 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #58
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:51am Sep 21, 2012 12:51am
Quoting aeternum
Pending USDJPY 77.50 Long, TP 80.00

Pending USDCAD 0.96768 Long, TP 0.99434

Pending NZDUSD 0.835/0.84639 Short, TP 0.77695/0.75185
These are the big long terms trades that I have in mind. Need to start keeping records.

Pending AUDUSD 1.03275/3366 Long, TP1 @ 1.065, TP2 @ 1.07132, TP3 @ 1.08x

Pending EURUSD 1.325 Short, TP1 @ 1.265, TP2 @ 1.244, TP3 @ 1.18

Pending GBPUSD 1.63/4 Short, TP1 @ 1.6, TP2 @ 1.58, TP3 @ 1.56, TP4 @ 1.52
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #59
  • Sep 21, 2012 3:40am Sep 21, 2012 3:40am
We have got crazy spikes on EURUSD. And it has convincingly broken 1.3. Looking for a good entry now after I closed my 1.298 scalp.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #60
  • Sep 21, 2012 3:44am Sep 21, 2012 3:44am
Quoting aeternum
Daily close was an engulfing bar. Price continued rising to 1.04745. Expecting a slight retracement here. Looking to go long at 1.041/2 if price manages to get there. Possible long at 1.03xx as well. If price continues going up, I don't stand to lose as I have positions up there already.
Seems like price didn't want to retrace at all. It has continued its bust upwards to test 1.05, should we break 1.05, we are NOT looking back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 21 September 2012 PM.png Size: 62 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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