AUD/USD | Page 2630 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #52,581
  • Sep 20, 2012 4:52am Sep 20, 2012 4:52am
Last chart of the Night and most important in my head is Futures if we break below QE3 announcement last week than there is no close support for AUD/USD or /6a for at least not till 1.0238 on futures..

Also ES is grinding down to pre QE3 announcement levels at 1435 (1448current) so this will only drag dollar higher and risk lower.


There needs to be something substansial to stop ES from trending to this level and sending risk assets along for the ride..Not sure what that would be though other than dollar coming back down to channel level..Sound the PR from a central bank or ratings agency we might have a bad down day ohhhh nooooo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-20-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #52,582
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:15am Sep 20, 2012 5:15am
Quoting Oilman0727
I have 1.3300 as the next support (61.8%)
I'm targeting 1.3500. I think the head and shoulders should give a bit more push to the downside.
  • #52,583
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:19am Sep 20, 2012 5:19am
Check the bear flag on the 15m, looking for that downward push very soon
  • #52,584
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:29pm Sep 20, 2012 12:29pm
Did that wedge help form a bigger pattern?

4H AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4HAudUsd.png Size: 27 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,585
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:33pm Sep 20, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Did that wedge help form a bigger pattern?

4H AU
Seems like it will go back up.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #52,586
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:59pm Sep 20, 2012 12:59pm
I don't see today's move as bullish.. This is New york being New york, for the last 3 sessions New york has been the propping on AUD/USD only for it to get hammered in overnight sessions.. EX news suprises or better data related to Australia I am fading this all the way.

Technical: Dollar has broken out of its 78.6-88.6 range if we close above 79.43 on Daily candle this sets in motion for a bigger move lower on AUD/USD

/6A futures. I mentioned last night we were about to close below 61.8% and we did for the following move lower. Now on Daily on this same 61.8% if we close below 1.0354 than this is a continuation to the next retracement at 1.0199 but of course in between there there are a couple support zones.

AUD/USD. stopped flat on 61.8% 1.0368 (YTD) but is still trading below last years Highest Hi and Lowest Low 61.8% retrace 1.0432.

I am looking for dollar to close above the 78.6% on Daily AUD/USD to close at or Below HI/Low last year 61.8% and Futures to close below 61.8% YTD for a more secure area to add more shorts..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-20-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 147 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-20-TOS_CHARTS.jpg2.jpg Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-20-TOS_CHARTS.jpg8.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #52,587
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:32pm Sep 20, 2012 1:32pm
Lets see what happens at 1.044
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: channelvvvbmbcndddfzzxc.gif Size: 19 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #52,588
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:35pm Sep 20, 2012 1:35pm
sold some more spot at 1.0428 looking for aud/usd to close NY below 1.0432 to feel even better on this continuation overnight
  • #52,589
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:04pm Sep 20, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting jplazard
sold some more spot at 1.0428 looking for aud/usd to close NY below 1.0432 to feel even better on this continuation overnight
LOL hope you used an SL, but you probably didn't. I think the CNY was bad but better than expected... NY is trying to fix it.. was a buy the dip situation looks like. Not sure why this area would appeal to you for a long term sell since we didn't even reach the major supply area yet.

As I said this was a buy going into LO.. and on LO that's exactly what happened... this is major strength and unless some fundi news comes out negative... expect it higher.
  • #52,590
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:07pm Sep 20, 2012 2:07pm
SL i am open profit on yesterdays shorts both on Fututes and Spot. I am not going to put a stop loss 10-20pips from my entry when I am postiion trading on a move exceeded 300+ ticks

This is common NY session I fade NY hopium all day and in infinate amounts if I could
  • #52,591
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:10pm Sep 20, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting jplazard
SL i am open profit on yesterdays shorts both on Fututes and Spot. I am not going to put a stop loss 10-20pips from my entry when I am postiion trading on a move exceeded 300+ ticks

This is common NY session I fade NY hopium all day and in infinate amounts if I could
Maybe.. not what I think. Gluck.
  • #52,592
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:18pm Sep 20, 2012 2:18pm
i hope we get to 1.04730
  • #52,593
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm
PMI was not positve they revised downarward from last realease and we came exactly in at the Lower revision number

PMI-Contraction, slower rate
Output-Contraction, Faster Rate
New Orders- Contraction, Slower rate
New Export Orderss Contraction, Slower rate
Employment-Contraction, Slower rate
Backlogs of Work-Contraction, slower rate
Output Prices-Decline, Slower rate
Input Prices Decline, Slower rate
Sotcks of Purchases Contraction, Faster rate
Sotcks of Finished goods- Expansion, Slower rate
Quantity of Purchases Contraction, Faster rate
Suppliers Delivery Times Shortening Faster Rate

Maybe I need to dust off my old econ/fin books or I am reading the wrong report because nothing in this signals better than expected they only hit the lower revised number from last release..

Interest rate cuts are coming and it might be sonner than people think
  • #52,594
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm Sep 20, 2012 2:20pm
Quoting holmes
i hope we get to 1.04730
1.0463 is in the way... going to be tough but it might if intentions of the bulls are to make new highs.
  • #52,595
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:23pm Sep 20, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting sidhujag
1.0463 is in the way... going to be tough but it might if intentions of the bulls are to make new highs.
Mmm, what I feel is that the upward move from May/June has not been completed. PA came from channel bottom there and channel top is sitting around 1.1. So I believe we have more upside here. The past few days seem to only be a correction.

Check out my thread to see what I'm talking about
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #52,596
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:24pm Sep 20, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting jplazard
PMI was not positve they revised downarward from last realease and we came exactly in at the Lower revision number

PMI-Contraction, slower rate
Output-Contraction, Faster Rate
New Orders- Contraction, Slower rate
New Export Orderss Contraction, Slower rate
Employment-Contraction, Slower rate
Backlogs of Work-Contraction, slower rate
Output Prices-Decline, Slower rate
Input Prices Decline, Slower rate
Sotcks of Purchases Contraction, Faster rate
Sotcks of Finished goods- Expansion, Slower rate
Quantity of Purchases Contraction, Faster rate
Suppliers...
But we also were higher than 9 month low... so q is was that the low? China has benefit of doubt due to track record of performance + interest on AUD so bulls will always win. You gotta give incentive for bears to come in and pay to hold a position. When a cut happens thats the only way.
  • #52,597
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:25pm Sep 20, 2012 2:25pm
the only next push up looking out is Spain fomally request aid and Greek haircut gets approved other than that the numbers still stay 80% of Countries are in Contraction and all the Central banks are in. The hope is no longer going to come from the speeches or the stimulus announcements they will come from hard numbers and when Stimulus starts to trickle down which we would see in the econ releases.
  • #52,598
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:26pm Sep 20, 2012 2:26pm
AU and ES just created bull flags on M5... now 25 is support for AU so look to long there for R/R, if drops below then sentiment changes (only if ES also drops 1455)
  • #52,599
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:30pm Sep 20, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting jplazard
the only next push up looking out is Spain fomally request aid and Greek haircut gets approved other than that the numbers still stay 80% of Countries are in Contraction and all the Central banks are in. The hope is no longer going to come from the speeches or the stimulus announcements they will come from hard numbers and when Stimulus starts to trickle down which we would see in the econ releases.
ur forgetting its election year...how do commodities do then? US won't let anything get in the way outside of a war declaration (which won't happen anyway until after elections if it does).

I have some 2-3 year bulls starting in a few commodities so that is AUD bullish by correlation and that is long term.... there are still alot of positive sides of the story for bulls to hold. A slow grind up is very bullish for me... that is telling me shorts are trying to pick tops. I will look for any entry based on criteria I already spoke about.
  • #52,600
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:40pm Sep 20, 2012 2:40pm
I'm looking at1.2380 on e/a to see if we get a retest/bounce or a follow through. I'm short from 1.2465 with a partial profit taken.Interesting times.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: channelvvvbmbcndddfzzxcv.gif Size: 18 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
34 traders viewing now