Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

AU: loaded a few longs targeting 1.06

UJ: I understand why some traders taking longs (80% actually) at this level, but I prefer going short even though it is sitting on a support.

Common sense in trading the break of the wedge pattern .

Shahab,the techniques which I use in my analysis are Gann techniques which I have been applying for more than 12 years in real market situations.In his analysis he used like any technical analyst,the price,patterns and time.
Gann was at the same time the one who noticed first that time is extremely important in the evolution of any financial instrument. At the same time he realized that we cannot reflect a multidimensional reality using a two dimensional reality.
A classic chart has a price axis and a time axis.In reality the price evolves in time and space,accelerates and decelerates depending on the energies it accumulates and these energies are given in the end by two fundamental elements: Supply and Demand.The supply and demand contain our own emotions,our energy,our fears and our enthusiasm.There are many things to say about the way in which these energies can be read,how these energies can be unleashed and how they manifest in the capital market.Unfortunately a forum,as generous as it is,does not offer enough space to develop this subject any further.What is important however,and what we all know is that trading successfully relies on human psychology for more than 80% and our inner structure,on the intelligence and the ability to manage these emotions.
In the chart that you are talking about,we see a square with circles named "The Gann Square" in simple terms.However,this square was NOT invented by Gann, Gann took the basis from the ancient Egyptians.All in all this square is nothing more than a computer which allows us to calculate the square of numbers.Let's not forget that Gann lived at the beginning of the 20th century when one could not use a computer.This so called computer helped Gann calculate the support and resistance levels in time but also in price,as his famous angles helped him calculate the velocity of the prices.The square is included in a zodiac circle.The planets generate aspects which are nothing else than moments in time that accumulate and generate energies.Those specific energies influence the human behavior, and people depending on their psychological condition act in the market.In other words, the price rises most of the times when we witness the New Moon not because the Moon influences the Dow but because the Moon influences us people.The Moon acts on oceans, not ships.But these ocean movements influence the movement of the ship,do they not? In the three charts which I have posted ,one represents a sacred geometry method in which we can see that the price has evolved in a channel with 25 % harmonics ,the exit from this specific square has taken place violently in a moment in which the time overlapped the price.In the second chart we can see that the calculated levels with the Gann Square have functioned perfectly as support and resistance levels and the breaking of these levels took place at the exact moments which were determined by the "Gann Calculator".
In other words,in a Gann analysis we follow the patterns (usually they are similar with the ones you use in the classical analysis so well) , the time and the price.If we follow the daily EUR/USD chart we can see that the price has made a double bottom pattern and on the 24th of July it was rejected entering a ascending movement.That is what we would say from a classical analysis perspective,but if we measure the distance between the two major low levels,we will notice that there are 666 days, the sign of the Beast.Nothing is coincidence,everything takes place when it should take place.We live in a ocean of energies and vibrations.Trading can be beautiful but at the same time a mean of evolution,a way of living.I'm sorry for the long post,and thank you for allowing me to post in your thread.

A Japanese mathematician claims to have the proof for the ABC conjecture, a statement about the relationship between prime numbers that has been called the most important unsolved problem in number theory.
If Shinichi Mochizuki's 500-page proof stands up to scrutiny, mathematicians say it will represent one of the most astounding achievements of mathematics of the twenty-first century.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/w...prime-numbers/
http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...-prime-numbers

S&P 500 Today = Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year ago

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:

There are some informational jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do. It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one. I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997.

The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro: Eurodollar futures are a way for companies and banks to lock in an interest rate today, for money it intends to borrow or lend in the future. They are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and are the most widely traded futures in the world, with open interest (number of contracts outstanding) typically in the 7 to 9 million range for the shortest maturity futures.
Applying the above projects the following CITs for the S&P 500:

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high

Thank you, very interesting.

Can we say short

Thanks for the explanation. It was useful and interesting. Btw, you're welcome in posting here, I enjoy your analysis.

You can make money both ways. As far as you have an estimation of your RRR and the probability of success of your setup, you'll be fine. EU has been in a vertical parabolic move in the last 6-7 trading days, I don't see that changing now. In other words, trend has been change in daily and weekly TFs from down to up.

AU: it might be good for another round of long play.

GU: It's tempting for a quick short at 1.63, but have your SL tight in place, this pair takes no prisoners.

Is that an indicator you are using?

I do not use indicators

So is that geometric pattern hand drawn? Very nice.

Price levels, time levels and angles are calculated mathematically and placed in the chart.

Very impressive. I'll be sure to check out your blog

Thanks a lot for appreciations