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  • #9,921
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:48am Sep 19, 2012 7:48am
Yeah, still nothing that I've seen fundimentally that suggest the bear will be taking over. That down move to me is looking more and more like a retracement than a full on bear movement. I'm in long at the hammer yesterday. We'll see what happens.
  • #9,922
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:53am Sep 19, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Nate04
Yeah, still nothing that I've seen fundimentally that suggest the bear will be taking over. That down move to me is looking more and more like a retracement than a full on bear movement. I'm in long at hammer yesterday. We'll see what happens.

Its been a slow crawl so far. But I think momentum is winding up tight, soon to be unleashed.
  • #9,923
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:17am Sep 19, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Nate04
Yeah, still nothing that I've seen fundimentally that suggest the bear will be taking over. That down move to me is looking more and more like a retracement than a full on bear movement. I'm in long at the hammer yesterday. We'll see what happens.

Fundamentally BOTH the AUD and the USD are very BEARISH according to the COT. But here's the caveat : In forex, we're trading only the spread between the two currencies. BOTH currencies can go in the TANK and the spread (forex pair) can remain in a bull market. Call it the BEAR-BULL if you will. All that needs to occur is for the US dollar to drop further than the aussie to put the forex charts in a bull market while the actual currencies are in a bear market.
  • #9,924
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:21am Sep 19, 2012 8:21am
Quoting chiknthief
Fundamentally BOTH the AUD and the USD are very BEARISH according to the COT. But here's the caveat : In forex, we're trading only the spread between the two currencies. BOTH currencies can go in the TANK and the spread (forex pair) can remain in a bull market. Call it the BEAR-BULL if you will. All that needs to occur is for the US dollar to drop further than the aussie to put the forex charts in a bull market while the actual currencies are in a bear market.
Indeed... And Uncle Ben printing money puts the USD in bad shape.
  • #9,925
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:46am Sep 19, 2012 8:46am
Long @ 1.0470
sl 1.0454
tp manual but aiming for 1.0500
  • #9,926
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:04am Sep 19, 2012 9:04am
irfandbl,

can you plot a fib yet based on 20% or 30%?

i have around 1.05 and that's above daily pivot i think 1.0493
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,927
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:37am Sep 19, 2012 9:37am
Quoting gnomoneey
irfandbl,

can you plot a fib yet based on 20% or 30%?

i have around 1.05 and that's above daily pivot i think 1.0493
what do you mean? 1.05 is the 20% or 30% of which TF?
  • #9,928
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:40am Sep 19, 2012 9:40am
Quoting irfandbl
what do you mean? 1.05 is the 20% or 30% of which TF?
on a different machine....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 145 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,929
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:50am Sep 19, 2012 9:50am
Quoting chiknthief
RE-TESTING the 21MAC and the UPSLOPING 50 day MA. The lows are being REJECTED. This thing could EXPLODE UPWARD !!!
Chik Bear, this retracement is only about halfway done. Current upward move is a sub-retracement within this retracement. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,930
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:54am Sep 19, 2012 9:54am
Quoting Nate04
Yeah, still nothing that I've seen fundimentally that suggest the bear will be taking over. That down move to me is looking more and more like a retracement than a full on bear movement. I'm in long at the hammer yesterday. We'll see what happens.
Some times hammers [actually dojis] are transition patterns. They are not all reversal signals. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,931
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:04am Sep 19, 2012 10:04am
Quoting foxybunny
Nice pic, doblece.

Is your picture a Bull with a straight back that can slide down the pilot ?

Or a bucking bull still going upwards (but need to draw some camel humps on this bull's back to show support ?

I don't really draw, so did not draw the camel humps.


A/U on M15 and M30 show a slight Stoch Divergence suggesting price may go down.

However, on H1, Stoch is still up suggest price may still have another up leg, though Fib estimate show target already reached at 1.0579.

The Blue line on M15 of 1.0556 is where I watch and wait...

Quoting foxybunny
DB, just saw your post and the current price.

Would agree with the your overall chart direction, except for price to go much lower than 1.0550.

As current price is now 1.0526, price likely to float down to 1.0500 as suggested by doblece and irfandbl.

I see 2 regions, one around 1.0480-1.0500, second around 1.0440-1.0460 to be potential Demand Zones to be interested in buying.

As you said will be range bound, I wait till US session to see where is the price near before any interest to buy.
The first move this week was only the Short from 1.0556 from Mon 17-Sep, this was shown last Fri 14-Sep with the blue horizontal line.

Expected the Demand Zone to be 1.0440-1.0460, but price actually went further down to 1.0409, and there was no real bounce there, perhaps Demand was not strong there.
That means quiet during Mon, Tue, and Wed.

Now Wed 19-Sep price going within and above my initial Demand Zone of 1.0440-1.0460 after testing bottom 3-times, this could be the Up Move for the pilot.
There is more volume here with the up arrow, even though volume still not that high yet.

For this Long, based on old Fibs, looking for TP1 around 1.0552, and perhaps TP2 around 1.0601.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-18_AU_H1_Short.png Size: 83 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-19_AU_H1_Long.png Size: 81 KB
  • #9,932
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:15am Sep 19, 2012 10:15am
Quoting DaddyBear
Some times hammers [actually dojis] are transition patterns. They are not all reversal signals. IMO
Oh believe me, I know that. And this wasn't the perfect hammer, but at the same time, I took it anyways because of the fact I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe this is anything but a retracement. This trade is still in its infancy. Sometimes, I'll lose... It happens. The loss will be small. In the meantime, I'll be hoping for somewhere in the 60-80 pip win range, so I can move my sl to be. Once it gets there, then I let it run until the move is exhusted. Thats the optimist in me talking.
  • #9,933
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:40am Sep 19, 2012 10:40am
Quoting Nate04
Oh believe me, I know that. And this wasn't the perfect hammer, but at the same time, I took it anyways because of the fact I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe this is anything but a retracement. This trade is still in its infancy. Sometimes, I'll lose... It happens. The loss will be small. In the meantime, I'll be hoping for somewhere in the 60-80 pip win range, so I can move my sl to be. Once it gets there, then I let it run until the move is exhusted. Thats the optimist in me talking.
I'd suggest you take profits when they are there. No one is getting poorer because taking profits too soon.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,934
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:48am Sep 19, 2012 10:48am
Quoting DaddyBear
I'd suggest you take profits when they are there. No one is getting poorer because taking profits too soon.
My question was that why you did not take the money when she was approaching 1.05. You can always buy her back at any time. Don't marry to the Aussie even she is pretty.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,935
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:56am Sep 19, 2012 10:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
My question was that why you did not take the money when she was approaching 1.05. You can always buy her back at any time. Don't marry to the Aussie even she is pretty.
I understand the mindset of holding the stocks but not Forex pairs. Although the Aussie generates positive swap for long positions, I believe cash is the best position one can hold at anytime. -IMO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,936
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:56am Sep 19, 2012 10:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
I'd suggest you take profits when they are there. No one is getting poorer because taking profits too soon.
Yes and no. Believe me, I value your wisdom. Probably more then just about anyone on this forum. But if I took profits every time I wasn't sure about a trade and got a few pips in the bank, I'd ruin myself over time with the losses. I hope I'm explaining that well enough??? It would be a slow death. A loser every now and then will not kill my account as long as I'm around for the big win, like the last one, where it ended up being a 5:1 w/l ratio.

Also, lets not forget the words that came out of your keyboard... The bull movement has not reached the utl yet. Perhaps it won't... but the optimist in me is sure hoping it will!
  • #9,937
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:31am Sep 19, 2012 11:31am
Quoting chiknthief
DAILY = Bullish .................... Staying above the 21 MAC and the 50 MA still pointing up
Look .........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SHORT LEG.JPG Size: 86 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,938
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:35am Sep 19, 2012 11:35am
Quoting Nate04
Yes and no. Believe me, I value your wisdom. Probably more then just about anyone on this forum. But if I took profits every time I wasn't sure about a trade and got a few pips in the bank, I'd ruin myself over time with the losses. I hope I'm explaining that well enough??? It would be a slow death. A loser every now and then will not kill my account as long as I'm around for the big win, like the last one, where it ended up being a 5:1 w/l ratio.

Also, lets not forget the words that came out of your keyboard... The bull movement has...
Yes, the bull movement has not reached the utl yet. But, when the Bears come out to slaughter the Bulls, I'd do something differently.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,939
  • Sep 19, 2012 5:36pm Sep 19, 2012 5:36pm
wow that was crazy how nzd gdp moved almost 100 pips...

took aud/usd down but not for long imo

Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,940
  • Sep 19, 2012 5:51pm Sep 19, 2012 5:51pm
where will this fall under 47 or over 47?

for my bullish trade i want over 47
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
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