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  • #1,981
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:34am Sep 18, 2012 3:34am
Quoting jezek5
FXCM Dollar index chart,would not be any
surprise to see the Dollar getting a little traction around this level.

The level i was looking to possibly hold was the pink line,
we crashed down through it and are now back up to it again,
now watching to see if it has become resistence.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,982
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:43am Sep 18, 2012 3:43am
Not bad Spanish auction... they didn't get as much off as they wanted , but respectable metrics otherwise....

They sell Ten years later this week and that will be a better test....

More data later that should be weak, but I may not get filled today.... so be it... I'm not interested in buying here...

It would take a fast money move... likely on Spain's announcement to accept bailout to tempt me in here....
  • #1,983
  • Sep 18, 2012 6:55am Sep 18, 2012 6:55am
Quoting jezek5
The level i was looking to possibly hold was the pink line,
we crashed down through it and are now back up to it again,
now watching to see if it has become resistence.

The daily close is the important one but so far
even the hourly seems to be refusing at that level,
this verywell could be the top before another leg down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,984
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:14pm Sep 18, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Crassius
I have moved my buy orders a little lower playing for a move into the 100 HMA currently 3014... Weekly pivot 3017....

Orders cancelled as we trade 3030.... this move could extend down to 2935/40.... Its late in NY, don't want to enter now with the 100HMA having moved all the way up to 3030.... that's too far away to play against 2980..... although its tempting...

Will try ahead of 3000 against 2980. IF 2980 breaks I expect to see 2935ish.
  • #1,985
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:13am Sep 19, 2012 6:13am
Trying to keep this thread alive while Tom is on vacation...

I am just starting to get some fills that I have layered in just above the 3000 fig... we trade 3003....

2/3rds of the position trails back under 3000 ... hoping for a stop run to pop us lower briefly and fill the position out....

I'm risking 1% against 2980, with a SL tucked several pips below there...

A more sure fire long entry would be 2935.... but its worth 1% to take a shot here...
  • #1,986
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:17am Sep 19, 2012 6:17am
The rise to 3173 was begging for a relief pullback, and 2935 feels like the right place.... yet 3000 is a heavy psych number, and few longs remain so there is little incentive for stop hunts below 3000.

The run after ECB and FED actions seems to have been entirely short covering fueled, and the medium term players have not yet turned long....

The key here is to guess where they will start buying in....
  • #1,987
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:22am Sep 19, 2012 6:22am
There is an important bond auction tomorrow of the key Spanish ten year...

We have seen profit taking on the way down as short term longs took money off the table ahead of this risk event.

On the one hand, the bond vigilantes have every incentive to stick it to Spain to try to forced an end to its foot dragging on asking for a bailout and triggering the ECB bond buying (money printing). The ten year is the benchmark.

ON the other hand, we could easily see the auction manipulated by Spain pressuring its banks to fillout demand tomorrow and a good auction result would see us pop higher....

What the market really wants to see is Spain officially request aid....
  • #1,988
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:08am Sep 19, 2012 7:08am
We trade 2995... there are some stops piled up at 2990 that if tripped will help fill out the rest of my position, now held against a SL tucked far enough below 2980 to survive a stop hunt. Still only have tiny position on, so really want to see 2990 stops pop and get me tanked up to a full 1% risk.
  • #1,989
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:22am Sep 19, 2012 7:22am
Quoting jezek5
The daily close is the important one but so far
even the hourly seems to be refusing at that level,
this verywell could be the top before another leg down.

The daily close last night was good ,
but thismorning its pushed higher,we did
fall a long way down very quickly so i'm
still seeing this as a pullback before another leg down,
tonights close could give us a bigger clue as to where we go next.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,990
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:33am Sep 19, 2012 7:33am
This level right here could do with holding on
a daily close basis to keep the bullish momentum going.
If not then 2930 could be tagged.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,991
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:40am Sep 19, 2012 7:40am
Quoting jezek5
If not then 2930 could be tagged.

The 200 hour moving average currently at 2930ish also near the 10 DMA and a more sustainable angle on the hourly is a very important level.

If 2980 breaks low enough to trip the huge pile of stops that will be beneath.... me included, ....the 200 Hour will likely be my next attempt to get long.... will see what the book looks like down there if when time comes.

For now I'm buying on the way down to 2980 along with many others....

Now that we have made 3000, we are at the mercy of equities which really look like a sick dog ATM...
  • #1,992
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:41am Sep 19, 2012 7:41am
Posted this comment and chart on another thread yesterday.

Cable daily as i see it,looks like its going to paint an inside bar today,
and looking at the monthly all this up move is nothing more
than an inside bar move also,we're at the top of the range here,
its breakout or pullback time.


Top of the range it was then.
6210 needs to be watched to see if it is now resistence.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,993
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:45am Sep 19, 2012 7:45am
Quoting Crassius
The 200 hour moving average currently at 2930ish also near the 10 DMA and a more sustainable angle on the hourly is a very important level.

If 2980 breaks low enough to trip the huge pile of stops that will be beneath.... me included, ....the 200 Hour will likely be my next attempt to get long.... will see what the book looks like down there if when time comes.

For now I'm buying on the way down to 2980 along with many others....

Now that we have made 3000, we are at the mercy of equities which really look like a sick dog ATM...

Is it?
Funny how MAs often come in at levels that match
other types of analysis,cheers for that Crassius.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,994
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:46am Sep 19, 2012 7:46am
Quoting jezek5
Is it?
Funny how MAs often come in at levels that match
other types of analysis,cheers for that Crassius.
I love confluences
  • #1,995
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:48am Sep 19, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Crassius
I love confluences

Yes....thats the word,mind went completely blank as i was typing.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,996
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:57am Sep 19, 2012 7:57am
Talking of confluences,thats why i like this level of 3011ish
on Fiber,these can often be very good when you have a 50% retrace
and an old 161 extenstion that wasn't really tested on the way up,
time will tell.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,997
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:16am Sep 19, 2012 8:16am
I have canceled my unfilled orders and moved the SL to BE + 1 to cover commission... this is a good bounce against technicals that are rolling over.... I don't want to stay long with my 3000 entries if we trade back down to the Big Fig. We will likely take out 2990 if we do.... after 30+ pips green, no sense in going under water again.

People who wanted to get filled there have been, so that support is now gone, and Buy orders will be lower on the next retest, should we get one.

That leaves me with a very small position, but its a free ride from here and another safe entry. Keep piling safe entries up and you'll wind up ahead eventually even if some trades don't work out.
  • #1,998
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:31am Sep 19, 2012 8:31am
S&P 500 falls almost to the day's low on Wall Street open.... no love from equities today....

takes out the 24hr low as I typed that last
  • #1,999
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:46am Sep 19, 2012 8:46am
Quoting jezek5
Posted this comment and chart on another thread yesterday.

Cable daily as i see it,looks like its going to paint an inside bar today,
and looking at the monthly all this up move is nothing more
than an inside bar move also,we're at the top of the range here,
its breakout or pullback time.


Top of the range it was then.
6210 needs to be watched to see if it is now resistence.
1 hr pin right up to 6210,she don't want to fall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,000
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:06am Sep 19, 2012 9:06am
First profit target bagged near the Daily Open.... crankin up the SL on rest...
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