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AUD/USD

  • #52,501
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:28pm Sep 17, 2012 9:28pm
we could retest the upper 1.06 area again as this QE open ended program is less than a week old and once dollar finds a fresh batch of sellers than AUD could trade back in synch as it has done for the last two weeks
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  • #52,502
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:29pm Sep 17, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting gugun555
yes, after 1.02
so if we get to 1.02 i dont see a sell after that
  • #52,503
  • Sep 17, 2012 10:13pm Sep 17, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting dab
Thanks! For anyone who already looked at excel charts in my earlier post these are no different, I just want to see if they now show up as a picture.
I can see you are using the open/close to determine points for the lines you've drawn. I usually use the open/close of a bar for H-lines, but I do occasionally draw trend lines from an open/close. How much have you experimented with any sort of lines?

I need to start playing with V-lines again, since there seems to be something I can gain from them.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,504
  • Sep 17, 2012 10:52pm Sep 17, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I can see you are using the open/close to determine points for the lines you've drawn. I usually use the open/close of a bar for H-lines, but I do occasionally draw trend lines from an open/close. How much have you experimented with any sort of lines?

I need to start playing with V-lines again, since there seems to be something I can gain from them.
Haven't done much with any sort of lines so just experimenting with these. Have also looked at Fibs a little but am also looking at keeping things simple and scaling in positions above or below daily 200SMA on assumption price will return to this point. Did some backtesting and would have been very profitable in 2011 (approx 500% return) but less so this year (200% return). Currently also use lower high, lower low, higher low, higher high type methodology to look at trends, eg on current 15min chart trend is down and will watch for price above 1.0486 for possible reason to close my 1.06 short. That sort of scenario is where I am unclear on application of daily 200SMA method as it says I should wait for 1.0341 but in short to medium term I expect bullish price but opportunities for shorts in medium to longer term. Will probably look to have some trades of each timeframe operating.

edit: should mention those approx returns ignore funding costs for simplicity
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,505
  • Sep 17, 2012 11:09pm Sep 17, 2012 11:09pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
Jplazard... When you say the Bernake fill will be here soon, what does that mean?

Thanks. :nerd:

It's already here. Otherwise who would've triggered this?
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  • #52,506
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:09am Sep 18, 2012 1:09am
What to do, what to do hmmmm... I think I will stick to the futures side where the short is a better setup if we break a bit lower.
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  • #52,507
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:37am Sep 18, 2012 2:37am
The daily sharp reversed already tested at the top : 1.0575 area.
Probably is going for breaking new low =)
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #52,508
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:36am Sep 18, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Kofmaster
The daily sharp reversed already tested at the top : 1.0575 area.
Probably is going for breaking new low =)
Nice Move so far
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It's Designed and Balance
  • #52,509
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:58am Sep 18, 2012 4:58am
This sharp move down is good.
However beware of 1.0446 this area is pierced without any significance test. In irony this price is also the low of 2th August of 2012 4H candle highest volume of the recent months. If this price is tested with low volume up candle bar. Then well baby, I shall wait this pair at hell
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #52,510
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:28am Sep 18, 2012 8:28am
1.0427 is key support level
  • #52,511
  • Sep 18, 2012 11:29am Sep 18, 2012 11:29am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Looks like you got to see what you wanted. Nice call. That little flag also came around, that was nice, too.

Update for the hourly. There's just one extra line and the recent downward line has been fixed. The two H-lines that are pips away from each other will provide a good amount of supply/support. We could see price test the downward line, yet it may not close below the bottom of the two H-lines.

Saw the test for the DTL, but price did close below both H-lines. It quickly bounced off the DTL making price go back above the two H-lines. Price is now testing them again for supply/support after the bounce.

1H AudUsd
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,512
  • Sep 18, 2012 12:34pm Sep 18, 2012 12:34pm
Close above this downtrend channel the move upwards is pretty much assured.. But if not well the downward move continues.
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  • #52,513
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:52pm Sep 18, 2012 1:52pm
Aud fellows, have a look at cadjpy weekly. A good risk reward set up in my opinion. chart in the cadjpy thread.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,514
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:12pm Sep 18, 2012 2:12pm
What do you think about this?
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  • #52,515
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:25pm Sep 18, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting maximinus
Aud fellows, have a look at cadjpy weekly. A good risk reward set up in my opinion. chart in the cadjpy thread.
Any opinions on how BOJ decision will affect AUD/USD? I am new to trading this currency pair. Looks to me that if easing, AUD will climb back towards 1.0600 especially after hitting 38% fib today.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #52,516
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:37pm Sep 18, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting anton.olff
Any opinions on how BOJ decision will affect AUD/USD? I am new to trading this currency pair. Looks to me that if easing, AUD will climb back towards 1.0600 especially after hitting 38% fib today.
I haven't talked about BOJ intervention. I don't base my trade on specualtion. Of course, if cadjpy break this TL, that implies that
1) UJ is flying to the moon for whatever reason and/or 2) cad is diving.
And finaly I have absolutely no idea of what would be effects on audusd.Hope that someone more qualified would answer you.

Edit: I mean no idea of what would be the effect of boj intervention.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,517
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:17pm Sep 18, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting ddexter
What do you think about this?
bewareeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • #52,518
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:31pm Sep 18, 2012 4:31pm
I dont see any shorts at the moment as Futures and AUD/USD have traded and about to close above trendlines I have mentioned earlier today.


Below AUD futures... about ready to close above the upper trendline to continue higher..
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  • #52,519
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:41pm Sep 18, 2012 4:41pm
Dollar trading In between 88.6 78.6 until it breaks out one way or the other I can't be confident in a position trade in AUD/USD either way. This week looks like swing plays at least til China later this week.
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  • #52,520
  • Sep 18, 2012 5:06pm Sep 18, 2012 5:06pm
Hi All,
For what it's worth I beleive in the short side of the AUD after the big double top, doji etc all occuring on QE announcments (bad post reaction to news) also if the long term resistance in the CRB holds as it looks like it will, then commodities will flop (also not great reaction to QE news).

Coupled with that is the market positioning where more AUD longs rushed in last week and US$ shorts are at their highest levels since the end of Aug 2011 (check what the AUD/USD did after that...). This is not COT data, it is taken from Deusche Bank internal positioning data.
Good luck...
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