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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,801
  • Edited 5:36am Sep 17, 2012 5:11am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting Skynet
i went to his blog too....but i cant really reply because i will have to be copying and pasting...and i have to register...it joao is willing to post a copy here...that will be nice...




i will post two trades that i high risk...one more riskier than others....just to illustrate in realtime the functionality of the heatmap.

long CAD/HKD and short USD/CAD.

look at the present heatmap: CAD and HKD are pretty much neck to neck...with CAD depreciating...

I must admit I didn't use the heat map for these ones, It was just based off the QE3 and, well, hell, it looks great for ashort in the H4 with h1 as trigger.
Once/if BPC occurs, I'm in. This and g/n were the only ones I was considering to get into before tomorrow. BTW the g/n is also h4 with h1 trigger.
DISCLOSURE: The reason I didn't post these was because like Sky said, they're risky. I don't want anyone to fuck up their account on my say so. Honestly, tomorrow is the time to roll, I've just been away for so long I thought I'd take my account out for a (tightly stopped) little spin tonight, before the real marathon race starts tomorrow.
I know,I said I'mconservative, but to me, these are conservative in a way because u/c tracks oil. Oil up=good for cad. Andt the g/n, well, it was based on no data, literally. What i mean is that there's no big gbp news or nzd news, gbp isn't involved in the data from last week, and nzd CAN't have negative reaction to last week against gbp, so, I'm gonna jump in. (after BPC, ofcourse).

Here's setup and trigger for both......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: trig2.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #11,802
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:26am Sep 17, 2012 5:26am
Quoting mkb1272
Hey Shomari,

Is this the one you like to see??

Attachment
Thanksa bunch,I always feelnaked without a daily trendscan.
  • #11,803
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:42am Sep 17, 2012 5:42am
http://C:Userspete_masseyDesktopeurhkd.gifHello Everyone,
I'm not a very regular FF user and somehow I have missed this thread on previous visits but I think I am going to have to check in here a bit now, Its a nice helpful thread and it sits very well with my trading style. As a brief introduction, I trade mainly based on trendlines and S/R with price action and some reference to MA's. I also like that this thread is not scared to trade the dreaded exotics, Most threads warn to stay away from them but I have had some of my best trades on exotics.
I may not contribute here too often, (time constraints), but as an opening offerring heres one pair I am watching ATM.This is my first time trying to post a chart on FF so i'll see if it goes ok
EUR/HKD
Cleared the 200 daily MA last week but still in a downtrend to me,
Friday broke a descending trendline and resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurhkd.gif Size: 31 KB

now sitting in a sideways consolidation period
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurhkd2.gif Size: 26 KB

will be watching which way it breaks

Keep up the good work I'll try to pop in more regularly,
All the best
Lille Bror
  • #11,804
  • Sep 17, 2012 7:50am Sep 17, 2012 7:50am
thanks, lille bror..or can i call you, LB for short?

EURHKD...i am predispose to the bullish side...i am looking for breakout, ppullback, continuation.

welcome to the thread, lille bror.

p.S. IS "LILLE BROR" swedish?


Quoting lille bror
http://C:Userspete_masseyDesktopeurhkd.gifHello Everyone,
I'm not a very regular FF user and somehow I have missed this thread on previous visits but I think I am going to have to check in here a bit now, Its a nice helpful thread and it sits very well with my trading style. As a brief introduction, I trade mainly based on trendlines and S/R with price action and some reference to MA's. I also like that this thread is not scared to trade the dreaded exotics, Most threads warn to stay away from them but I have had some of my best trades...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,805
  • Sep 17, 2012 7:57am Sep 17, 2012 7:57am
Check out todays British Gilt (bond) yield changes, and check out gbp strength on your charts.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839203/site/14081545/

Possible long ?
Interesting, let's see where this takes us.
  • #11,806
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:02am Sep 17, 2012 8:02am
Quoting lille bror
http://C:Userspete_masseyDesktopeurhkd.gifHello Everyone,
I'm not a very regular FF user and somehow I have missed this thread on previous visits but I think I am going to have to check in here a bit now, Its a nice helpful thread and it sits very well with my trading style. As a brief introduction, I trade mainly based on trendlines and S/R with price action and some reference to MA's. I also like that this thread is not scared to trade the dreaded exotics, Most threads warn to stay away from them but I have had some of my best trades...
From your chart at the top, it looks like you're breaking long out of a downward channel, (according to the diagonal red lines on your charts). Just trying to interpret what your doing.

Welcome, nice charts.
  • #11,807
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:12am Sep 17, 2012 8:12am
gbp strong across the board
jpy, getting thrashed soundlyacross the board

Look at that sneaky little gbp,just doin his thing not making too much noise huh?
lol!! Gotcha!!!
  • #11,808
  • Edited 8:56am Sep 17, 2012 8:25am | Edited 8:56am
Here we go boys !!! THE TRENDING HAS BEGUN !!! Looks like gbp and jpy are todays big movers. I'm still not jumping in yet. (not jpy or gbp anyways) because it's OK, tomorrow we'll see retraces to the h1 and we will KNOW, THIS IS THE TREND FOR THE NEXT 1-3 MONTHS !!!

Though I am going to nibble at the markets, with an entry short on u/[email protected]. Just a nibble, an appetizer, tomorrow the main entrees begin to be served.

Update: Damb LOOK AT THAT G/J GO !!! i'm seriously considering a g/u entry long using h1 trigger.
  • #11,809
  • Edited 8:45am Sep 17, 2012 8:25am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting shomari
Check out todays British Gilt (bond) yield changes, and check out gbp strength on your charts.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839203/site/14081545/

Possible long ?
Interesting, let's see where this takes us.
i see the change in trend... at quick blush, not really bullish for the GBP....see the INCREASED yield against the german bunds and the T-bonds? it will be helpful, if it is getting redder....

P.S. for the newbies: #1. good money flow in = bond goes up = rates goes down.
#2. good money flow out = bond goes down = rates goes up
\
i will have to look at the overall trend.

i went to this site: http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Credit-Indices
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-17_09-19_Latest bond rates, interest.jpg Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-17_09-43_United Kingdom Government.jpg Size: 25 KB
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Attached Image
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,810
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:48am Sep 17, 2012 8:48am
Hi Skynet,
bullish, breakout, pullback, continuation.
sounds good
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurhkd3.gif Size: 32 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurhkd4.gif Size: 27 KB


I forgot to say, that I do look for setups on high timeframes but usually go down to short tf's for entries and i tend to go in pretty aggressive, entering early with smaller stops, move to breakeven fast then see what sticks, then ride it.

this trade is at BE now, will look for another entry on a break above that 10.2000 high

i'll see what happens now.

good guess with swedish, its actually norwegian but you were pretty close, and yes feel free to call me LB

Cheers,

Lille Bror
  • #11,811
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:16am Sep 17, 2012 9:16am
Quoting Skynet
i see the change in trend... at quick blush, not really bullish for the GBP....see the INCREASED yield against the german bunds and the T-bonds? it will be helpful, if it is getting redder....

P.S. for the newbies: #1. good money flow in = bond goes up = rates goes down.
#2. good money flow out = bond goes down = rates goes up

i will have to look at the overall trend.

i went to this site: http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Credit-Indices
Yes, I see what you're saying, no confirmed trend, but yes today is bullish.
I just think that with Britain just sort of "floating" out there on there own, other currencies are moving and gbp staying put, so to speak. So I'm considering this yield data as a sort of "anchor" for the gbp, while other currencies move "around" it. So if currency strong go long vs. gbp, if weak, short. Almsot like gbp is the bechmark and the others are orbiting around it.

OK now I know what I mean. gbp is stable, while everything else is quite volatile cause they're caught up in the news somehow, EUR bad news, jpy chf, could be intervene if still RISK OFF, comms, at the mercy of USDand China news. So you see, gbp is the only one out there not affected by all last weeks news. (obviously guys, not literally, the whole world is affected, I just mean the news wasn't directly related to Britain so it's in kind of a bubble of no news, which IMHO means less volatility and more price stability.)

Of course, like I said, today I play the lion in the grass, assesing the herds (You're all like "Enough with the lions already, shiiiiit dude !!" lol!!). So consider these just some ideas to tantalyze the mind with, nothing etched in stone yet. Just throwin it out there.
But honestly, look at gbp and jpy right now. gbp strong , jpy taking it's licks.
  • #11,812
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:23am Sep 17, 2012 9:23am
Quoting lille bror
Hi Skynet,
bullish, breakout, pullback, continuation.
sounds good
Attachment

Attachment

I forgot to say, that I do look for setups on high timeframes but usually go down to short tf's for entries and i tend to go in pretty aggressive, entering early with smaller stops, move to breakeven fast then see what sticks, then ride it.

this trade is at BE now, will look for another entry on a break above that 10.2000 high

i'll see what happens now.

good guess with swedish, its actually norwegian but you were pretty close,...
Sweet trade, nice bpc long, off that channel breakout.

You were mentioning your entries....
On this thread we do the same thing. If trend found in the h4 we "zoom in" to h1 to trade it in real time.
We call the higher tf (timeframe) chart "The Setup Chart", where we FIND the trend.
THEN for our entries we "zoom in" 4x to make the trade, or EXPLOIT the trend, and that chart we call "The Trigger Chart".
So, now when you hear someone say I'm trading e/u h4 setup h1 trigger, it's basically the same thing as you're already doing.

Again, sweet trade LB
  • #11,813
  • Sep 17, 2012 10:06am Sep 17, 2012 10:06am
Anyone seen this movie: Arbitrage with Richard Gere

great flick. there's the link below, just close all th pop ups to get to th movie. It might askfor human verification just verify, then it'll take you to the movie. Enjoy!!

http://www.vidxden.com/v7ee9oiy0n17
  • #11,814
  • Sep 17, 2012 12:20pm Sep 17, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting lille bror
Hi Skynet,
bullish, breakout, pullback, continuation.
sounds good
Attachment

Attachment

I forgot to say, that I do look for setups on high timeframes but usually go down to short tf's for entries and i tend to go in pretty aggressive, entering early with smaller stops, move to breakeven fast then see what sticks, then ride it.

this trade is at BE now, will look for another entry on a break above that 10.2000 high

i'll see what happens now.

good guess with swedish, its actually norwegian but you were pretty close,...
while it's good that you made a profit, I would not consider the setup an A+. The recent news of the ESM being okay under german consitution and the QE3 by the US is nothing but a temporary measure.
Did the situation change? Did they attack the roots of the problem? No. And sooner or later the big trend down continues.

I think in general it's safer to look at the very long-term and trade with the fundies there. Probability is very low that we saw a real turning point of the EUR trend. And it's more likely that more negative news will happen.

Now I know shomari and skynet are just waiting to write a crappy response, so let the bashing continue!
  • #11,815
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:24pm Sep 17, 2012 2:24pm
Well, as you all know I cheated and tried to see if u/c might trigger for me. LOL!!!! Fat chance.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...alongside-oil/

That says it all.
But , as a educational sample, look at the u/c chart I put up. That's why we wait for BPC gentlemen. ( Breakout, Pullback, Continuation). While others may have jumped in due to "intuition", or whatever, we stayed clear of this debacle, due to our trusty, BPC.

Like I said, tomorrow, we pounce!!
  • #11,816
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:34pm Sep 17, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting Custos
while it's good that you made a profit, I would not consider the setup an A+. The recent news of the ESM being okay under german consitution and the QE3 by the US is nothing but a temporary measure.
Did the situation change? Did they attack the roots of the problem? No. And sooner or later the big trend down continues.

I think in general it's safer to look at the very long-term and trade with the fundies there. Probability is very low that we saw a real turning point of the EUR trend. And it's more likely that more negative news will happen....

Actually, no, I'm not going to BASH you, I'm going to expose you.

YOU are the real basher, shitting on everyones parade and trying to sow seeds of doubt.
YOU are the one, telling a man his Setup isn't A+ (according to who's standards, yours ?), even though it turned him a profit. (WELL DONE !!!)
BTW CUSTOS, if you'd happen to actually READ a few days back of posts, you'll see that AGAIN, WE ALREADY KNOW, there's bad news lurking. We've done our extensive fundie analysis, thank you very much.

My friend, you are the true basher, but not effective, because you state shit WE ALRADY KNOW !!! Which makes you sound more like a "Johnny come lately", than anything else.
Please come with some original analysis, or at the very minimum post some charts. Because as far as I can see, you, are nothing but a joke.

Have a nice day.
  • #11,817
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:39pm Sep 17, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting shomari
gbp strong across the board
jpy, getting thrashed soundlyacross the board

Look at that sneaky little gbp,just doin his thing not making too much noise huh?
lol!! Gotcha!!!

you are absolutely right. JPY is getting thrashed across the board...and shame on me. big, big shame on me for not exploiting that with EUR. why do i say that? well, the heatmap that i posted on sunday. clearly shows at the bottom of the bucket: JPY...followed by USD...followed by HKD(good work by LB long trade, by the way.)
in fact, let me post the heatmap:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347792986


clearly, the JPY is at the bottom: BOTH OF THESE heatmap are from yesterday ,sunday post, by the way. IT CLEARLY shows the JPY at the bottom of the bucket. SO...wtf? I didnt even bother looking at JPY until i read SHOMARI post. FUCK ME.!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1347793012

SO, CAN SOMEBODY please explain to my brain why the FUCK i wasnt looking to short JPY most of all...USD...second of all..and HKD third of all.

for fuck sake, i clearly stated in this post to long the red/pink...short the deep blue. fuck? why the fuck was my brain taking a vacation?

instead, i wasted my time waiting for a bpc(breakout - pullback - continuation) to set up in the USD/CAD short..... despite the fact that i noticed the the deteriorating strength of the CAD as i stated here.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,818
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:52pm Sep 17, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting Skynet
you are absolutely right. JPY is getting thrashed across the board...and shame on me. big, big shame on me for not exploiting that with EUR. why do i say that? well, the heatmap that i posted on sunday. clearly shows at the bottom of the bucket: JPY...followed by USD...followed by HKD(good work by LB long trade, by the way.)
in fact, let me post the heatmap:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347792986


clearly, the JPY...
Hey Skye.., also shorted the USDCAD, but didn't even wait for the BPC pattern... .......
  • #11,819
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:52pm Sep 17, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting Skynet
you are absolutely right. JPY is getting thrashed across the board...and shame on me. big, big shame on me for not exploiting that with EUR. why do i say that? well, the heatmap that i posted on sunday. clearly shows at the bottom of the bucket: JPY...followed by USD...followed by HKD(good work by LB long trade, by the way.)
in fact, let me post the heatmap:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347792986


clearly, the JPY is...
LOL!!! I am laughing reading this post, but it's not actually funny. You just expressed EXACTLY the way I feel right now. WTF ( and that's a, WHERE THE FUCK, not WHAT...) did that jpy crap come from ?
We've been hypnotized by some crazy market voodoo!! lol!!

I've been waiting on the u/c as well (not anymore, obviously).

Again though, tomorrow, we pounce.
Chalk this bitch up to, just a crazy day.
  • #11,820
  • Sep 17, 2012 3:05pm Sep 17, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting mkb1272
Hey Skye.., also shorted the USDCAD, but didn't even wait for the BPC pattern... .......

BPC, BPC, guys, did I mention, BPC !!!

Fuck, believe me, I know it's hard to stay disciplined sometimes, but pleeeeeeeaasee gentlemen, ALWAYS WAIT FOR THE BPC!!

I don't give a shit how "obvious" a trade is, or how much it just "has to go this way", WAIT. You'll miss some pips, but you'll never have to close a trade knowing it was your fault for guessing.
Wait for BPC, then jump in, if you get stopped out afterthat, well the market won, chalk it up as a loss, at least you know it wasn't your fault.
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