Central Banks & Big Players | Page 340 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How do you know all the positions held by big players? 25 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Central Banks and Big Players: Slight change in code reqd 7 replies

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players! 25 replies

Big players and Forex 4 replies

Attachments: Central Banks & Big Players
Exit Attachments

Central Banks & Big Players

  • #6,781
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:54am Sep 17, 2012 4:54am
Quoting fartist
If you're using oanda i don't think its even possible to risk 3%. But yes i agree, 3% is not feasible in the long run.

Once the string of losses hit you, you're account will be badly burnt. Thats unless you can constantly refund like tony, if not reducing the amount risk would be wise.
hazel1919's spreadsheet simulates a weekly refund like Tony.
  • #6,782
  • Sep 17, 2012 6:15am Sep 17, 2012 6:15am
Quoting hazel1919
Attached, a little excel sheet to understand the potential of Tony's system.

As you see, a drought of 100 losses makes life very difficult...
If you lose 2 pips + 1.2 pips spread for each open and you trade with 0.35% risk per pip, that will give you about 1.12% loss. I think 0.39% risk per pip is maximum you can have in US (1:50 max leverage). There will be at least a quarter trades BE and some with partial loss (you trail it gradually). Other full losses will be even a little bigger due to slippage or bigger spread. And you have to include negative compounding. My point is that it's hard to analyze this through a spreadsheet.
r u ready?
  • #6,783
  • Sep 17, 2012 6:57am Sep 17, 2012 6:57am
Quoting rtrs111
I think 0.39% risk per pip is maximum you can have in US (1:50 max leverage).

Just to be clear, leverage isn't figured based on pip risk, it's based on lot size.
For example if you want to trade the Eur/Usd and have a $2,000 account with 50:1 leverage, you can open up a trade of 1 standard lot.

1 lot=$100,000 / 50 = $2,000 margin.

It wouldn't matter if your stop loss was 2 pips, 100 pips, or no stop loss at all.
  • #6,784
  • Sep 17, 2012 11:05am Sep 17, 2012 11:05am
Quoting spyderman
Just to be clear, leverage isn't figured based on pip risk, it's based on lot size...
That's correct, but I didn't say leverage is figured based on pip risk, I was talking about risk per pip which is linked to leverage. From your example, if you choose even lower leverage, you would be able to buy less units and, using maximum NAV position size as default, you will lose less % from your total account per each pip.
r u ready?
  • #6,785
  • Sep 17, 2012 11:18am Sep 17, 2012 11:18am
Quoting rtrs111
That's correct, but I didn't say leverage is figured based on pip risk, I was talking about risk per pip which is linked to leverage. From your example, if you choose even lower leverage, you would be able to buy less units and, using maximum NAV position size as default, you will lose less % from your total account per each pip.
Must have misunderstood you then.

Quoting rtrs111
I think 0.39% risk per pip is maximum you can have in US (1:50 max leverage)
Sounded like you were saying you could only risk .39%/pip of your account if it was US based. Just wanted to make sure we were clear for those newer to trading.
  • #6,786
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:45pm Sep 17, 2012 1:45pm
Really, the elephant in the room is the amount of "droughts" we have in a row before success rears its happy head. The emotional and psychological pressure is phenomenal.

It is therefore helpful to try and quantify the potential draw-downs as a coping mechanism to manage the pressure.

In other words, how deep do our pockets have to be to refuel the account on a weekly basis? Four weeks? eight? Three months? Anyone had a dry run of three or four months with Tony's system. Tony?

On the positive side, bear in mind that every 400 pip win doubles the account. Three wins a year (a home run every four months) and within three years, $1000 = $1 million.

Or to put it another way, it takes nine steps to win "Who Wants to be a Millionaire"
  • #6,787
  • Sep 17, 2012 3:17pm Sep 17, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting hazel1919
Attached, a little excel sheet to understand the potential of Tony's system.

As you see, a drought of 100 losses makes life very difficult.

What is the longest drought between 300 pip wins?

Only a concerted back test will tell. I would appreciate any and all comments on this.


Tim
Hey Tim!

Here are my thoughts about your calculation:

Are these the rules?

1) You bet 3 % of your account per trade
2) Every 10 trades the account is refunded to its initial deposit of 200
3) 1 of 100 trades is successful
4) A take profit at 150 pips gains a net win (win minus total refund) of -24.08 / 300 pips gain a net win of 425.92 / 400 pips gain 725.92
5) if one successful trade about 400 pips triples your account, you achieve 3.936.600 after tripling it 9 times
6) you need 900 trades if every 100 statistically one successful appears

Questions:

- Did I understand your logic correctly? Please correct me if I did not.
- If you need to refund your account frequently starting with an initial deposit of 200 than you will have to do so after tripling your account the first time, too. Only difference is that you have to refund up to 600 now. Tripling 600 to 1.800 means to refund your account 100 times up to 1.800 and so on. To calculate the exponential rising value of refund write 600, 1.800 and so on into cell A2 of your spreadsheet.
- From that point on different options are possible to deal with that. But first I would like to ask you to check out if I got you wrong or not as I don´t want to write too much in case it goes into the wrong direction.

I like this trading system as it has similarities to the one I am trading. A tight stop loss means to have the possibility for big winners.
  • #6,788
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:58pm Sep 17, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting spyderman
Just to be clear, leverage isn't figured based on pip risk, it's based on lot size.
For example if you want to trade the Eur/Usd and have a $2,000 account with 50:1 leverage, you can open up a trade of 1 standard lot.

1 lot=$100,000 / 50 = $2,000 margin.

It wouldn't matter if your stop loss was 2 pips, 100 pips, or no stop loss at all.
To buy 1 lot of EUR/USD I would need $131,142 at the current rate of 1.31142, is it right?

Since we are on the topic of risk, if I buy a minilot of EUR/USD with $1000 so each pip costs $1 so with a 2 pips stop loss my risk is 0.2% in this position?

Thanks.
  • #6,789
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:07pm Sep 17, 2012 5:07pm
The 5 candle's method is up, but has changed a bit. Why? Because big players are thinking about our little system, maybe.

Now is not likely to appear a +5 candle, but SPLITTED in parts, because I've observed that now big players plays splitting positions and becoming more silent.

I have some variations of this system I've developed because this new changes in the markets.

For example, I apply the 5 candle's principles (tigh stop loss and then BE, etc) but in breakouts.

I wait for a HOURLY or more timeframe breakout, and then I enter when the breakout take action in the 5 sec timeframe. That's all!

Is fucking more complex than the old system because you need to zoom timeframes from h1 (or whatever you selected) to 5 sec. So you must paint the trend in hour, then you zoom to 30 and you paint the trend again, and then you arrive to 5 secs and, trought that fractal dynamic, you enter in the EXACT microtrend. The lowest trend possible, following the major trend, that's the moment. The price dont back to the initial price, you set at 0 and you have a 0 loss with a potential h1 swing plenty of pips.


And YES, im not using the google traductor. MY objetive is to be rich, buy google's google traductor module, and make a blunt with all the action's paper. Fuck google traductor.

You, Tony, did a great job in past, creating this edge. But were the banks looking for porn when they saw this post, and changed the market for their personal convenience.

We NEED to create another edge! I'm developing mine.
  • #6,790
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:53pm Sep 17, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting jonander50
The 5 candle's method is up, but has changed a bit. Why? Because big players are thinking about our little system, maybe.

Now is not likely to appear a +5 candle, but SPLITTED in parts, because I've observed that now big players plays splitting positions and becoming more silent.

I have some variations of this system I've developed because this new changes in the markets.

For example, I apply the 5 candle's principles (tigh stop loss and then BE, etc) but in breakouts.

I wait for a HOURLY or more timeframe breakout, and then I enter when the...
What makes you think the 'markets have changed' in response to this one system? What evidence do you have?

I'm all for keeping trading strategies somewhat secretive, but I can tell you, the "big guys" dont even know this place exists. Maybe the retail forex broker/dealers know about it, but no one here, with all due respect to Tony and anyone else who may be successfully trading this system with a five or six figure account, is putting any dents in any hedge funds or anything like that. I used to work at the CBOE in Chicago, and I know several traders who trade options full-time for a living at private prop firms, who trade accounts with TENS OF MILLIONS OF US DOLLARS every day. They make money for the owners of the firm and they keep making money, most of the time anyway. No one stops them. The large banks, hedge funds, etc make billions per year. They arent worried about people with $1000 retail accounts. Would they like you to lose to them? Sure. But the market hasnt changed one bit simply because a handful of people are placing trades at the same time every day.
  • #6,791
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:57pm Sep 17, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting vincegata
To buy 1 lot of EUR/USD I would need $131,142 at the current rate of 1.31142, is it right?

Since we are on the topic of risk, if I buy a minilot of EUR/USD with $1000 so each pip costs $1 so with a 2 pips stop loss my risk is 0.2% in this position?

Thanks.

No, if you buy 1 standard lot that is 100,000 units of the base currency, in this case the Eur. If you have a US account with a max of 50:1 you'd have to have $2,000 in your account.

If I understand your second question you are trading 1 minilot (10,000 units) for $1,000 meaning your leverage is 10:1.

The amount of leverage does not effect the pip value. The pip value would be $1.00, so if you lost 2 pips then you would lose $2.00 which would be .2% if you had $1000 in your account.
  • #6,792
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:53am Sep 18, 2012 1:53am
Hello to all experts of CBBP system,

I am new to this system and will like to know more about it. May I know do you all trade this system? Do you manually monitor the chart and execute the purchase, or do you use MT4 to perform the trades?

If you do the manual execution, how do you manually enter the trade within first 5 sec?

Thank you!
  • #6,793
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:07am Sep 18, 2012 2:07am
LO buy , -2
  • #6,794
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:07am Sep 18, 2012 2:07am
Quoting SmartGXL
What makes you think the 'markets have changed' in response to this one system? What evidence do you have?

I'm all for keeping trading strategies somewhat secretive, but I can tell you, the "big guys" dont even know this place exists. Maybe the retail forex broker/dealers know about it, but no one here, with all due respect to Tony and anyone else who may be successfully trading this system with a five or six figure account, is putting any dents in any hedge funds or anything like that. I used to work at the CBOE in Chicago, and I know several...

Is not this system or this place itself, BUT the fact to follow the big player's movements.

Maybe I'm wrong, and please correct me! But If I'm a hedge fund/bank, and I know another bank/hedge fund is doing, I would bet against them to caught them.

All what i'm talking, comes from the belief that hedge funds, big players and banks watch out their competitors movements in the markets (via the fingerprints, 5 candles por example) so all they need to stealth they orders a little bit.

Look, I've been talking with a some importante manager today, and he showed me a trading platform where you can put a CRONOMETER to make a order split in various part and execute one block of them every X seconds.

What do you think about this? Correct me because I have strongs beliefs in what I saw.
  • #6,795
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:39am Sep 18, 2012 3:39am
Quoting hazel1919
Really, the elephant in the room is the amount of "droughts" we have in a row before success rears its happy head. The emotional and psychological pressure is phenomenal.

It is therefore helpful to try and quantify the potential draw-downs as a coping mechanism to manage the pressure.

In other words, how deep do our pockets have to be to refuel the account on a weekly basis? Four weeks? eight? Three months? Anyone had a dry run of three or four months with Tony's system. Tony?

On the positive side, bear in mind that every 400 pip win...
I wouldn't call it the "elephant in the room" - it's been addressed multiple times within the thread. The consensus is that the longest period without a valid trade is 2 months. I took that figure, doubled it, and worked out a position size that I would be comfortable with based on a 4 month drawdown.

If this system was easy to cope with psychologically everyone would be trading it as it can be very profitable.
  • #6,796
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:58am Sep 18, 2012 3:58am
The basic system is relatively easy to trade (the manage is another thing) if you use correctly some mind-tricks.

For example, I think that my max stop (2 pip +spread) is a inevitable tax I MUST pay to enter the market. So I'm not losing nothing, im only paying what I MUST pay, an nothing more.

And this is not all, because everytime I pay that tax, I have the oportunity to learn something about the consequent market's behavior.

Isn't fabulous? I pay a must tax, but that gives me the remote oportunity to win a big stack, and what is more important, I win everytime a new knowledge.

I wanna loss right now!

PD: It's a funny thing to auto-suggest by this way, because when you win, you think: "Fuck man, I didn't lost".
  • #6,797
  • Edited 5:52am Sep 18, 2012 4:56am | Edited 5:52am
I have read the first post, some posts after #180 as advised and I would like to ask wether I get this correctly:

1. You hop on the first 5 sec candle after 9:00 (London opening central european time), which is at precisely 9:00:05.

2. You use a 1-2 stop loss (+spread)

3. ALWAYS use a 140 take-profit?


I am especially wondering about 3. Is it actually reasonable to hammer away at this for days and weeks (months?) to grab 140? Why not go for 50 pips or even 20?



EDIT:
What leverage is used to achieve the advertised "1 140 TP win pays for 110 losses?"
I am trading on OANDA on 1:50 and if I use nearly all the money in the account and a stop-loss of 1 (+1.1 spread right now), the stop loss is at 0.8% of my account and 1 PIP has a value of 0.45%
So the actual price for a trade if it goes to hell is at a bit more than 1.6% loss if I use SL 1.
A 140 TP would win around 52% which means that win would only pay for 32.5 losses. Assuming I do this twice a day, with 20 trading days per month I would have to grab one total win every 16 days just to break even. Would a much lower take profit be more sensible with these numbers?
  • #6,798
  • Sep 18, 2012 7:17am Sep 18, 2012 7:17am
stop loss on LO. Sitting at BE on NYO. Everyone else on board
  • #6,799
  • Sep 18, 2012 7:21am Sep 18, 2012 7:21am
Quoting Tony112
There's going to be many other occasions in your life time... better believe that.
I'm trading like clock work. Monday 3AM I'm putting my trade again, the elevator might have to go down to the main floor

Maybe off by a day?!?

Elevator going down.
  • #6,800
  • Sep 18, 2012 7:33am Sep 18, 2012 7:33am
it's uncanny...
the ea has beat me by a hair last three opens...

sitting at 6, was at 17...

ah, well, free trade...
back to bed!
4 traders viewing now