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  • #11,781
  • Sep 15, 2012 11:46am Sep 15, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Skynet
of course, i will write more later...basically, the USD is getting and going to get violated like a virgin by a pack of hungry vikings.

see the way the polish zloty is totally destroying the USD?

I do indeed !!
Me thinks Uncle Sam is in for a rough ride going forward !! (said in a pirate voice) Aaaargh!!!
  • #11,782
  • Sep 15, 2012 12:06pm Sep 15, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Skynet
indeed. you nailed it.



right on the money! that is why it is a proxy. right on the money, amigo.




the heatmap let you see the trend deterioration as it is happening....right before your eyes....also, when a trend is ending, i use the heatmap for misalignment trades: i will look at the currency that was the strongest during the previous rallying trend...and use these strong currencies to short or long in the new trend. for example.




THANKS...

I have been DYINNG to trade exotics since you showed us those charts a while back (trending ever so sweetly).
I must have been blind, but now theseheatmaps are going to finally open up that side of trading for me.....Awesome!!!

Seriously, I can't even express how excited I am to add this to my arsenal.

THIS IS THE ICING ON THE CAKE !!!!!

BTW....SHOUT OUTS TO 4REXX !!! DROPPIN KNOWLEDGE, AND KEEPIN IT REAL!!! 1 VOUCH FOR 4REXX FROM ME !! YOU DESERVE IT!!! KEEP IT UP!
  • #11,783
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:30am Sep 16, 2012 4:30am
Hi there!
I want to contribute with something to this great thread, and here is an article that I just posted in my blog on fxstreet.net so, I would like to share here as well: http://ning.it/OxN1Tv

From the currency heat map(not posted here), we can see that, despite of the big moves in audusd and usdcad last week, both currencies(aud and cad) are still in the low range, being 2 of the weakest currencies. Interesting...
So, if the markets turn for a correction, these 2 currencies are likely to suffer the most.

My head is not good to track a great quantity of number so I prefer to track the capital flow with charts.
Hope this can have some useful info for you.

Cheers!
  • #11,784
  • Sep 16, 2012 5:46am Sep 16, 2012 5:46am
Quoting shomari
.......
I love the way we can use other pairs in place of others !! (I knew you could, but I'm gonna take it seriously now. AWESOME). Yo, write a post about which pairs to use in place of others, that is the shit !!!
Also, next Monday you gotta come with which exotics are in play.
Oh man, dudes, I'm just sitting here watching the charts fly, it's torture.
i have all of them below...not just the exotics...but the majors as well....

very simple: look to LONG red...short BLUE.

i think i should do this every weekend...post the heatmap on every sunday(for a month, 2weeks, 1 week)...that way, the thread will serve as archives for the market behaviour every week.

since, the heatmap is not enough...for fundamental info the best source that i know is the: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News

for polish zloty
for danish krone
for czech koruna
for swedish krona
for norwegian krone
for hungarian florint
for thailand baht
for turkish lira
for singapore dollar
for taiwanese dollar
for mexican peso
for saudi arabian riyal
for south african rand
for hong kong dollar
for indian rupee

of course, http://www.tradingeconomics.com has the hard, tabular data.

anyways, here are the heatmaps:


the first set is the USD and EUR versus the exotics.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,785
  • Sep 16, 2012 5:53am Sep 16, 2012 5:53am
Quoting Skynet
i have all of them below...not just the exotics...but the majors as well....

very simple: look to LONG red...short BLUE.

i think i should do this every weekend...post the heatmap on every sunday(for a month, 2weeks, 1 week)...that way, the thread will serve as archives for the market behaviour every week.

since, the heatmap is not enough...for fundamental info the best source that i know is the: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News

for polish zloty
for...
this second part i post everything else..AUD, CAD, JPY, NZD, CHF, GBP....(with the exception of EUR and USD) vs the exotics.

***aaaarrrrghhhh. i dont know why i wrote "excerpt" instead of the correct "except". on the heatmap. aarrgggghhhhh****

AS always: LONG THE red/pink ones...SHORT THE blue ones...
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,786
  • Sep 16, 2012 5:57am Sep 16, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Skynet
this second part i post everything else..AUD, CAD, JPY, NZD, CHF, GBP....(with the exception of EUR and USD) vs the exotics.

***aaaarrrrghhhh. i dont know why i wrote "excerpt" instead of the correct "except". on the heatmap. aarrgggghhhhh****

AS always: LONG THE red/pink ones...SHORT THE blue ones...
part 3: non exotics vs each other(threw in xag and xau and sgh and hkd)

again, long the RED/pink....SHORT the blue ones.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,787
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:02am Sep 16, 2012 7:02am
ABOVE I HAVE POSTED THE HEATMAPS...NOW, let me attack the fundamentals....

Quoting shomari

THE THREE EVENTS:
1)(obviously) China's slowdown/collapse ?
2)The Germans aquiescing to the bailouts=shiny new European bailout toy
3)A brand new shiny QE3 toy for FED to play with
thanks for answering my questions.....it is a battle of dominance between these three factors....of course, the market decides everything...so far...it seems that QE3 aka QEinfinity is the dominant one...hence the heatmap showing the USD been brutally demolished like a virgin being ravished by a pack of hungry viking warriors. I have the impression this short USD trend will remain intact till december. FED rexamination began in january. Heck, who knows when the rexamination will begin: the fed QE3 is benchmarked to unemployment numbers and housing starts--bernanke said they will keep at it until these two things show significant improvement....hence, the name QE infinity.
take a look at the massive expansion in the fed balance sheet: holy moly!
http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...0120915w12.gif

below is the housing starts:

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...0120915w16.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...0120915w17.gif

and another important one for the FED: the unemployment data:

http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/...7795126143.gif

clearly, they dont give a shite about the balance sheet...the only thing they give a shite about is the housing starts and the unemployment data. You can see the monthly breakdown of employment data from the bureau of labour statistics:

I mean, take a look at that FED BALANCE SHEET AGAIN...and keep in mind the inflation risk by looking at this inflation chart: SEE THE INFLATION SPIKE UP AT EVERY QE? AT QE1 AND QE2...see how it gets higher everytime?...now...we have QE3 = QE INFINITY...= EVEN MORE MOVING UP.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/i...tion_chart.jpg


Inflation risk is there, of course. retail sales were up by 0.9%(however this is due to gasoline/petrol usage.).....either the price of oil is going up(which i believe is the case...due to inflation + middleeastern unrest + protest against "innocence of muslim" movie in the middle east--the movie that resulted in the death of us ambassador in libya)...or americans drove more during this summer..my opinion is the former: price of oil is going up because of inflation risk and all the geopolitical mess from the middle east...from iran to libya revolution to yemen uprising to...pick your favourite middleeastern country. This means = rise in oil prices + gold and silver prices. Now, combine this QE = inflated commodity prices + geopolitical unrest ....which leads to GOLD and SILVER....i am keeping my finger crossed...but with QE infinity...i will be thoroughly happy if gold goes back to retest the previous high 1924 or so....just under $2000...it will be nice if it test $2000 this time...that is my price target anyways(yes, i know i said, no TP...but...that was the all time high.)....same idea for XAG...i will probably sell at retest of all time highs of $49.82. that will be fucking sweeeeetttt! Here are some posts i did on gold...a couple of months ago.

ONE MORE THING ABOUT THE QE3....One clear thing from all these is that the FOMC meeting from now till december is immaterial: because the FED are not going to suddenly change policy: we already know their policy: 85 billion monthly QE for 4 months(at least)...so, who cares what the FED are going to say in the next FOMC meetings for the next four months..we dont care! why? ...we already know their policy. the fed fund rate(which is at 0.25%) as been pushed to 2015 from 2014....you can see the updated fed projections on their site.


EUROPE: nothing much that we dont already know before: bundestag passed the measures, mario draghi unlimited printing...spain needs bailout but pretending that he doesnt...which leads us to this piece of news: spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is meeting up with MARIO draghi THIS WEEK...heheheh. france is already "pressing" spain to ignore german concerns and ask ECB for bailout...hehehe....some of you might remember that when these happened...spain originally stated that they needed only 19 billion euros(that was on june 3rd)..they ended up needing 100 billion euros(june 10th). stupid games. the unemployment rate is 24.6% or so.

how will the EURO reacts to the QE? here is a chart about it. you can find more in this post.

speaking of the euro...in 4REXX post here. shomari provided a solid response....
Quoting shomari
Thank you 4rexx, a very stimulating analysis. Personally, I think I'm in partial agreement, but disagree on a few things as well........The 2 victims in all these QE's have been, yes, CHF, but also the JPY. For the exact reasons you said. People are, "forced out" of one safe haven currency, they run to the others. But here's the thing Both BOJ and BOS have said they will intervene to cool down their markets. RISKY CHOICES.

You're 100% right, but I wouldn't focus on where investors are going to stash their cash, as those places...
....

....i am in agreement with him up to a point: i have very little fear of SNB intervention...the EURCHF is getting bullish.--which is what SNB wants.....i doubt they will intervere against that. shomari also mentioned ESTONIA...needing bailout..if i am not mistaken...estonia main trading partner is russia...the effect on estonia will be determined by how well russia is doing...not vice versa.

CHINA. well, the recent GDP growth is 7.6 %..that is good by other countries standard...but not by chinese standard....the had double digit growth for what? 10 years...now..they are down to 7.6%...and projected to keep falling.....it is slowing down. PERIOD. nothing much to add.

anyways, this concludes my fundamental breakdown of the week.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,788
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:06am Sep 16, 2012 7:06am
MAJOR REACTION TO QEs.....

Quoting Skynet
......

how will the EURO reacts to the QE? here is a chart about it. you can find more in this post......
heck...if history is any indication of how EUR reacts to QE....this could be a guide:EURUSD Analysis- Study Of Reaction To Previous Quantitative Easing Announcements

(that of the USD and YEN and GBP are also included). ENJOY.

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/i...20may%2024.JPG
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/i...y.gif_640W.gif

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/i...x.gif_640W.gif


http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/i...y.gif_640W.gif
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,789
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:43am Sep 16, 2012 7:43am
from now on i will try to do a weekly fundamental and technical assessment.

posting the heatmap is easy to do(get the monthly, 2wks, and 1 wk). long the RED/PINK; short the deep/light BLUE. this is the simple premise of the heatmap. easy to sort out. easily done. Next step is to pull up charts and see which red versus blue one fits nicely with hector 3sma setup. then execute.

the fundamental analysis posts, on the other hand, takes time: to properly reflect and to articulately express all the barrage of fundie info.

i will try to do both every week(no promises!!)

of course, constructive criticisms and analyses welcome.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,790
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:46am Sep 16, 2012 10:46am
Quoting shomari
... a very stimulating analysis. Personally, I think I'm in partial agreement...As far as CHF. I'd watch for an intervention...also the JPY...I would/am shorting the dollar against anything that won't intervene on me, thus, anything but CHF, or JPY. FOR NOW !!
Shomari your sharp observations are right on the money as usual I was throwing some light on the correlations of the USD price action, mostly so others could see and analyse the options that a weak USD potentially opens up to them, if they were not aware of it already and give their response. When I was a newbie reading these forums for the first time I would soak up new info like a sponge, and the charts, which I hope help, can also say a thousand words.

The US bonds do give small but safe returns and investors will only place their monies there when the high yield investments are too risky. The risk on / risk off scenario I researched after your previous posts. Cheers! Carrying out fundamental analysis to see where risk averse money may flee too definitely gives you more confidence in what trends to follow if you have a choice of a few.

And fundie knowledge of the JPY and CHF economies and the way their central banks will intervene to protect their currencies /economies makes you aware of what other factors can mess up a perfectly good trade which is moving nicely is a case in point. If those currencies are strengthening it is definitely better to stay clear and focus on the more “predictable” currencies. Uncertainty is a bitch! However, if your trade is shorting CHF or JPY , that is their currencies are weakening you are on safer ground.

I think our dialogue (including sky’s heatmap analysis) is developing a decent bias for next week by identifying strong xau, xag, eur (see chart below) and weak (usd, try, usd, hkd, & probably usd) entities. Some good technical analysis by looking for roadblocks (strong s&r levels, MA’s, historic highs and lows, and news releases, etc.) in the way of the trades identified needs to be flagged up.

I am hoping more peeps get involved and bring their analysis and assumptions, conclusions, arguments, etc. to the table for discussion.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
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  • #11,791
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:22pm Sep 16, 2012 3:22pm
Quote
Originally Posted by Skynet

  1. currency heatmap as of 16th of september, 2012
  2. PART 2. everything else(except EUR and USD) VS the exotics.
  3. part 3: non exotics vs each other(threw in xag and xau and sgh and hkd)
  4. NOW, let me attack the fundamentals....

Sky you have outdone even yourself this weekend bringing together a wealth relevant information from so many sources. Excellent work. Bravo!

Quote
Originally Posted by Skynet
the heatmap is a fundie proxy. a person may not even know the fundamentals, but the person can see and understand why going LONG EUR/NZD is less than optimal trade....for example…posted on the 12th of september you can see the EUR and the NZD are pretty much neck to neck...what kind of a fool would want to trade them against each other then? (long or short, i dont care...move...
Quote

Originally Posted by Shomari
Sweet.This is very useful. It just occured to me that, yes, while I have a trendscanner, that only shows me what's trending now, but I wouldn't know what had happened with a certain currency say, over a few months time period. The heat map will let me see a currecy's transition from strong to weak, over a duration of time. That's key. I agree, big time (very powerful) fundie tool.
...

The versatility of the heatmaps is awesome seeing how the strength and weakness of a currency in comparison to other currencies moves over a period of time, seeing them vying for top or bottom spot week by week. Your prompting to trade the strongest against the weakest is also the fastest way to get into profit, and also to see potentially stronger daily moves than the normal ADR. The strength of gold and silver shown on the heatmap is further backed up by technical analysis here and in my posts from yesterday.

Quote
Originally Posted by Skynet
the heatmap is not enough...for fundamental info the best source that i know is the: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News
I also applaud your stand to persuade traders new and old to embrace fundamental analysis, they should not be fazed by it but delve into it bit by bit to gain a better understanding of what influences and moves markets, it can not only help you in the present market, but also get you positioned early for future market movements. Sky you dropped a lot of fundies which I an still digesting, and believe the USD will remain weak until the year end, all the signs seems to back you up, no-one knows the future it will be interesting to see if the prediction rings true.

Your information i'm sure is appreciated by many who read this forum even if they dont all say so. I'm sure many are ready for this weeks trading and are more confident that usual. Also thanks for your support of my humble contributions.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,792
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:27pm Sep 16, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting joaoborras
I want to contribute with something to this great thread, and here is an article that I just posted in my blog on fxstreet.net so, I would like to share here as well: http://ning.it/OxN1Tv both currencies(aud and cad) are still in the low range, being 2 of the weakest currencies. Interesting...So, if the markets turn for a correction, these 2 currencies are likely to suffer the most... I prefer to track the capital flow with charts.
Joao

Thanks for your input I checked your blog and I can see you have been analysing the cot reports for a good while and your analysis is on point. Am I correct in saying that you beleive that the EUR untrend has a way to go yet as the commercials has not reached an extreme selling position as yet?

Also Joao what is the relevance of the supply area marked on your chart where price is consolidating to IO movement? Your analysis on the other pairs is a good heads up that a correction or change of trend is in the offing.

Do you post cot info regularly it would be great if you could post a link to your blog here on a regular basis.

Thanks in advance for your reply.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,793
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:39pm Sep 16, 2012 4:39pm
i went to his blog too....but i cant really reply because i will have to be copying and pasting...and i have to register...it joao is willing to post a copy here...that will be nice...

Quoting 4rexx
Joao

Thanks for your input I checked your blog and I can see you have been analysing the cot reports for a good while and your analysis is on point. Am I correct in saying that you beleive that the EUR untrend has a way to go yet as the commercials has not reached an extreme selling position as yet?

Also Joao what is the relevance of the supply area marked on your chart where price is consolidating to IO movement? Your analysis on the other pairs is a good heads up that a correction or change of trend is in the offing.

Do you post cot info...

i will post two trades that i high risk...one more riskier than others....just to illustrate in realtime the functionality of the heatmap.

long CAD/HKD and short USD/CAD.

look at the present heatmap: CAD and HKD are pretty much neck to neck...with CAD depreciating in contrast to previous situation where you can clearly see the CAD dominating the HKD.)

hence....my short position is in the USDCAD....not in the CAD/HKD....both are weak(due to the fact that CAD has been depreciating...as evidenced by the heatmap) Also...CAD/HKD is derived from CAD/USD and USD/HKD....HKD doesnt really dominate USD the same way that CAD dominates USD both technically and fundamentally.

i ignore the CAD/HKD long position...they are too neck to neck.

I go with the short USD/CAD position from 0.971737.

now, let us sit back and see what happens. shall we? i will give trade updates later.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,794
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:29am Sep 17, 2012 2:29am
Hi,

I was kindly invited to look at this thread. I find it interesting that CAD, although in a clear trend, is showing a historical level of commercial selling (in futures) and a historical level large fund buying. This normally signifies a top is at hand (futures). In our case, a low for spot.

CAD is currently at resistance so trend followers would be looking short, and righly so. The tend is down... until its not. Something like a S/R flip could signify the swing level for the low though.

d
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  • #11,795
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:32am Sep 17, 2012 2:32am
here's a Hector currency index scan I just ran 3:26 am EST.

Umm I'm pretty much thiking of just beating the heck out of USD short this week. QE3=printing money=short USD. What's everyone else thinking?

Here's the place for your COT charts (very interactive)

http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/

And here's the current scan
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  • #11,796
  • Sep 17, 2012 3:07am Sep 17, 2012 3:07am
Hey Shomari,

Is this the one you like to see??

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  • #11,797
  • Sep 17, 2012 3:21am Sep 17, 2012 3:21am
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  • #11,798
  • Sep 17, 2012 3:30am Sep 17, 2012 3:30am
Quoting Skynet
i have all of them below...not just the exotics...but the majors as well....

very simple: look to LONG red...short BLUE.

i think i should do this every weekend...post the heatmap on every sunday(for a month, 2weeks, 1 week)...that way, the thread will serve as archives for the market behaviour every week.

since, the heatmap is not enough...for fundamental info the best source that i know is the: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News

for polish zloty
for...
i just for the first time ever opened a usd/pln ad usd/czk chart. AMAZING!!! I am so sold on these exotics you can't imagine as I type, the u/p is up 300p on the day !!! I didn't get into it, but from now on, exotics are part of my full arsenal. WOW!!! I am as giddy as a schoolgirl right now, I feel like I'm headed to the Super Bowl. My account is now invincible !!! LOL!! OK a littledramatic, but seriously, look at those pips !!

Once again, you da ma Sky.
  • #11,799
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:42am Sep 17, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Skynet
ABOVE I HAVE POSTED THE HEATMAPS...NOW, let me attack the fundamentals....



thanks for answering my questions.....it is a battle of dominance between these three factors....of course, the market decides everything...so far...it seems that QE3 aka QEinfinity is the dominant one...hence the heatmap showing the USD been brutally demolished like a virgin being ravished by a pack of hungry viking warriors. I have the impression this short USD trend will remain intact till december. FED rexamination began in january. Heck, who knows when the rexamination...
Nuff said.

Personally I'm gonna wait til tomorrow before getting into anything. Today I'm gonna watch bands, CDS, stock exchanges etc,to se where the big boys take us. To get into their heads, so to speak. Tofind out which event they consider th most important. QE3, China slowdown, EU problems ? Which way do they lean ? We'll know tomorrow. After we watch them today.
The intervention thing I was talking about was actually due to something 4rexx brought up. The fact that US is safe haven, maybe the big boys take a wait and see approach to QE3. Maybe instead of RISK OFF, they just park their money somewhere "safe", thus JPY, CHF strenghtening. Basically a QE is a weakening of the USD, thus "exportig deflation" to CHF and JPY.

So, again, I'm just going to analyse money flows and such tonight, let the bulls and bears have at it, then hopefully jump in tomorrow, once/if, we have a clear direction.
  • #11,800
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:50am Sep 17, 2012 4:50am
Quoting 4rexx
Shomari your sharp observations are right on the money as usual I was throwing some light on the correlations of the USD price action, mostly so others could see and analyse the options that a weak USD potentially opens up to them, if they were not aware of it already and give their response. When I was a newbie reading these forums for the first time I would soak up new info like a sponge, and the charts, which I hope help, can also say a thousand words.

[size=3][font=Calibri]The US bonds do give small but...
Absolutely,I agree,we've narrowed down somgood currencies, let's see where the big biys go tonight, fire up the charts tomorrow for the technical analysis, and away we go.
As far as peeps, the morethe merrierI always say.
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