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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #9,761
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:21pm Sep 15, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting doblece
Despite the pin bar, I would say both have about the same chances to occur first, depending on sunday open PA.

Attachment

I favor a correction to the 23.6 level though, given the rise has been practically non-stop from the successive breaks. The strong rejection at both the resistance level (former support in February, broken and retested as resistance in March) and very close to the monthly/weekly upper DTL, would allow some room for that retracement.

Unless it is a "fake" pin bar and bulls come back in force to break that...

Doblece, for your 2nd chart, your Blue parallelogram shape looks interesting.

How do you come up with this shape with the 2 blue vertical lines or technique and why?

How does it help you?

Is it a projection of the Flag pole of the long up bar below 1.05484 ?

If it is a Flag pole projection, normally it is a projection upwards to maybe get the 1st blue vertical line.
Why draw the 2nd blue vertical line and the two blue-dashed lines?

I would be interested if price reach the region around 1.0450 near the 38.2% you pointed out, as it looks like a nice Demand Zone there.
  • #9,762
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:13pm Sep 15, 2012 8:13pm
NASDAQ -

Forex: AUD/USD poised to drag higher, carry trade in focus


http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-09/forex-audusd-poised-to-drag-higher-carry-trade-in-focus.aspx?storyid=173155

"As John Noonan at IFR Markets explains, "the environment for carry trade demand has considerably ripened after the latest Fed move," he says in research note. "With equities looking well bid, commodities firming up and the VIX index crashing off to 14% - the [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue ! important]currency[/color][/color] (http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-09/forex-audusd-poised-to-drag-higher-carry-trade-in-focus.aspx?storyid=173155#) carry trades look appealing." He adds that the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars will likely be the main beneficiary of this demand vs. the U.S. dollar now that the Fed has announced new stimulus."


daddybearforex. com
  • #9,763
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:28pm Sep 15, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting tastefullven
Hi Chiknthief ..... could you please tell me from where you get these neat COT charts?

I get mine here. http://www.efutures.com/traders/quotes.php ... But I have an account there, Not sure what happens if you're not a client, Doblece has a good one too that doesn't require an account. She posted it here somewhere. You'd have to scroll back many pages to find it but its here somewhere.
  • #9,764
  • Sep 15, 2012 11:55pm Sep 15, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting doblece
Despite the pin bar, I would say both have about the same chances to occur first, depending on sunday open PA.

Attachment

I favor a correction to the 23.6 level though, given the rise has been practically non-stop from the successive breaks. The strong rejection at both the resistance level (former support in February, broken and retested as resistance in March) and very close to the monthly/weekly upper DTL, would allow some room for that retracement.

Unless it is a "fake" pin bar and bulls come back in force to break that level...
Mama, a zigzag is needed to carry the Aussie to 1.0500. But, 1.0545 was the high of 08/22/12 which is a major support now.

I looked at my charts again and believe a FLAT or a triangle pattern is more likely to happen than a zigzag. -DB-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-091412-H4.JPG Size: 164 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,765
  • Sep 16, 2012 1:11am Sep 16, 2012 1:11am
Aussie next probable move

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 15 KB


1.0532
1.0519
1.0506

and then probably up to D1 targets

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.gif Size: 17 KB


1.0647
  • #9,766
  • Edited 3:55am Sep 16, 2012 3:31am | Edited 3:55am
Hello Foxybunny! That would be a rising wedge, the solid lines both the height of the wedge from peak to trough and its projection from the break. Dotted lines are only to help see it is the same measure. Will post a link when back on the computer.

Edit: Here's the link:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/triangles_and_wedges.php#go-Rising-Wedge-toc12
  • #9,767
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:30am Sep 16, 2012 8:30am
Quoting doblece
Hello Foxybunny! That would be a rising wedge, the solid lines both the height of the wedge from peak to trough and its projection from the break. Dotted lines are only to help see it is the same measure. Will post a link when back on the computer.

Edit: Here's the link:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/triangles_and_wedges.php#go-Rising-Wedge-toc12

Now I'm more confused on your original chart, even after looking at your link of Rising Wedge.

I know you are showing me a rising wedge(2 Red lines), but don't see how you use this wedge to derive the 2 Blue vertical lines as the height of vertical line does not seem to match the height of the wedge(at its widest of the 2 Red lines.)

Note: Disregard the above comment, as just re-check the link's explanation of how the Wedge target is calculated.
Now understood. Previously I was looking more for a Flag pattern than a Wedge patter to calculate target.
Thanks.
  • #9,768
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:00am Sep 16, 2012 10:00am
Post-QE3 syndrome ..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WALL-2.JPG Size: 95 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,769
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:19am Sep 16, 2012 10:19am
The Bear's unforeseen consequence .........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ROLLER COASTER.JPG Size: 76 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,770
  • Edited 2:03pm Sep 16, 2012 10:30am | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bear's unforeseen consequence .........
The Bear's unforeseen consequence came from DB's Law #5.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,771
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:42am Sep 16, 2012 10:42am
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bear's unforeseen consequence .........
The Zooming Out of Such Consequence ...............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ROLLER COASTER-2.JPG Size: 57 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,772
  • Edited 4:56pm Sep 16, 2012 10:51am | Edited 4:56pm
gnomoneey, do you still think the Aussie's downtrend is still intact? What does your chart tell you now?

Quoting DaddyBear
Why do you think the Aussie's downtrend is still intact?
Quoting gnomoneey
sorry went running after i posted...

in my h4 chart the orange trend line is down trend
it will turn grey when its uptrend and it hasnt done it yet

also the other two trend lines are way below and moving upward..it is currently trying to go towards the orange and if it crosses then we are in about 20% or so of the uptrend. until then i dont consider it yet. yes when price hit 1.0166 and bounced that could be the start of the uptrend.

having the price below orange means we are either retracing or consolidating. at anytime it tries to touch...
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,773
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:19pm Sep 16, 2012 3:19pm
Pre-market: 1.05521/1.05551
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,774
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:20pm Sep 16, 2012 3:20pm
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/sec-charges-nyse-for-improper-distribution-of-market-data/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

D
  • #9,775
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:38pm Sep 16, 2012 3:38pm
Quoting Dane
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/sec-charges-nyse-for-improper-distribution-of-market-data/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

D
The news was related to stock market not Forex. It's not that easy to manipulate the huge Forex market worldwide except CBs.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,776
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:20pm Sep 16, 2012 4:20pm
Asian and European sessions will be in range-bound setting. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,777
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:07pm Sep 16, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
gnomoneey, do you still think the Aussie's downtrend is still intact? What does your chart tell you now?
i posted this in sep.9/2012 at that time we were in the process of turning bullish
as of 09/11/2012 my bullish trend was confirmed on my h4
again if we view in different tf we've been bullish since 2002 on monthly and m30 and h1 turned bullish...
blue highlights are the turning point...1.0166 was the m30n h1 confirmation and the other h4confirmation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aublue.gif Size: 30 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,778
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:27pm Sep 16, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Asian and European sessions will be in range-bound setting. IMO
Today Mon 17-Sep JPN Bank Holiday, another reason for don't expect much move in Asian session, just more range-bound.
  • #9,779
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:31pm Sep 16, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting bouble
Hi bro , Next week will have gap down or up? Can you tell me?

Quoting irfandbl
gap right

Quoting foxybunny
You really on the Ball!! Gap Right!

How about I said no real gap up or gap down for Mon 17-Sep!

Fri 14-Sep Close 1.0549.
Mon 17-Sep Open 1.0553.

With only 4-pips difference, it is a No Real Gap.

And 100% Gap Right!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-17_AU_M15_NoRealGap.png Size: 44 KB
  • #9,780
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:34pm Sep 16, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting chiknthief
Yellowstone is near the Rockies (Tetons). I'm 700 miles south closer to Mexico. Here's a pic from near my home.
Chik, how was ya firewood cutting?

Any more Rockies photos you took?
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