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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #9,721
  • Edited 2:46pm Sep 14, 2012 1:32pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
CHIK, I am using two professional charting programs to plot the trend lines. It indicates the elevation is around 1.065x. Have we seen 1.065x already?

My monthly DTL reads 10624. We hit it today. Monthly is more dominant than weekly and weekly is more dominant than daily and so on. My 'upper' monthly uptrending 21 MAC (green line) reads 10640. Your number @ 10650 isn't really out of line. The market is known for spikes higher or lower so you may be right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,722
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:58pm Sep 14, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting chiknthief
My monthly DTL reads 10624. We hit it today. Monthly is more dominant than weekly and weekly is more dominant than daily and so on. My 'upper' monthly uptrending 21 MAC (green line) reads 106040. Your number @ 10650 isn't really out of line. The market is known for spikes higher or lower so you may be right.
One thing noteworthy for the bulls. Last month (august) is a 'fake out' bar. (higher high - higher low - down close) and several bars AFTER a reversal bar (monthly).............. IF and I mean 'IF' it breaks the fake out bars (august) high with any authority - THE SKY IS THE LIMIT !!!

To remain bearish the 21 MAC green line 'MUST' hold on a closing basis. (September cannot close above 10640) But that don't mean it wont 'spike' higher.
  • #9,723
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:24pm Sep 14, 2012 2:24pm
The forex SKEW :

COT charts are bearish on both sides of the AUD/USD pair. On an individual basis the USD and the AUD could be in a real bear market while the forex AUD/USD could appear like a bull market. All it takes is for the USD to drop faster and further than the AUD to make it look like a bull market.
The reverse happened recently in the USD/CAD. Both were in a BULL market individually but the pair on the forex market was in a BEAR market. The CAD was just going up faster and further than the USD.

If this happens in the USD and the AUD in reverse of the USD/CAD example - THE SKY MAY WELL BE THE LIMIT as both currencies TANK !!!
  • #9,724
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:25pm Sep 14, 2012 2:25pm
My views for next week:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,725
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:34pm Sep 14, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting doblece
My views for next week:

Attachment
You could be very well right. Even as the stand alone currencies TANK.
  • #9,726
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:41pm Sep 14, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting doblece
My views for next week:

Attachment
The daily chart looks like its going to have a potential reversal bar today (long upper shadow candle) A move back down to the ichimoku cloud @10440 looks possible to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,727
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:14pm Sep 14, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting chiknthief
You could be very well right. Even as the stand alone currencies TANK.
Aussie doesn't respect much Pin Bars usually ... so it might try again to reach across the main weekly downtrend line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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However, the symmetrical triangle isn't yet mature IMO for a break of the ranging period (it is at about 60% completion - though it might well look to make a double top at above 1.08 and even at the HH and so expand the range from a triangle to a horizontal channel.

Besides, IMO, this ranging has been consolidating 1.0260 as a higher "centerline" value for the currency pair (like parity level was before).

The real trending (either continuation above 1.1080 or break below the lowest part of the range) would not be seen until next year's first quarter, I think.

But this is a too much longer view.
  • #9,728
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:40pm Sep 14, 2012 4:40pm
The weekly bars don't really seem to look like the upmove is complete. At least one more weekly bar with an equal or higher high would seem more likely right now, BUT the daily chart suggests by todays hammer candle that some back and fill action may take place first.

The pin bar is the hammer if I'm reading you right, doblece. The top shadow took out the prior highs just a little and then reversed. Hammers and dojis are more valid when other factors such as support/resistance, MA's, prior highs, and bollinger bands coincide with the candle pattern. Todays hammer coincided with both the prior highs and the upper bollinger band so it may well be relevant this time. I think it might correct downward first BEFORE a further upmove.
Just my two cents.
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  • #9,729
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:45pm Sep 14, 2012 4:45pm
BTW - 6 of the last 7 days have been up closes. As was the last 4 straight days. A pull back would clearly be in order.

Lets see what happens next week.
  • #9,730
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:50pm Sep 14, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting chiknthief
BTW - 6 of the last 7 days have been up closes. As was the last 4 straight days. A pull back would clearly be in order.

Lets see what happens next week.
We have to see if we have more upward movement..

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=384237
Egan-Jones Cuts US Rating To ‘AA-’ From ‘AA’
From forexlive.com (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/egan-jones-cuts-us-rating-to-aa-from-aa/)
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/egan-jones-cuts-us-rating-to-aa-from-aa/) Rating agency Egan-Jones Friday cut the United States’ sovereign credit rating to ‘AA-’ from ‘AA’ citing its opinion that the third round of quantitative easing announced by the Federal Reserve Thursday “will stoke the stock market and commodity prices, but in our opinion will hurt the US economy and, by extension, credit quality.” Below is the text of the summary of Egan-Jones rating action: Up, up, and away – the FED’s QE3 will stoke the stock market and commodity prices, but in our opinion will hurt the US economy and, by extension, credit quality. Issuing additional currency and ... (full story (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/egan-jones-cuts-us-rating-to-aa-from-aa/))
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,731
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:55pm Sep 14, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting chiknthief
Todays hammer coincided with both the prior highs and the upper bollinger band so it may well be relevant this time. I think it might correct downward first BEFORE a further upmove.
Just my two cents.
I'm with you on this analysis chikn.
We live in interesting times. Have a great weekend all FX people
  • #9,732
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:07pm Sep 14, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting gnomoneey
We have to see if we have more upward movement..

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=384237
Egan-Jones Cuts US Rating To ‘AA-’ From ‘AA’
From forexlive.com (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/egan-jones-cuts-us-rating-to-aa-from-aa/)
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/egan-jones-cuts-us-rating-to-aa-from-aa/) Rating agency Egan-Jones Friday...
Based on this news, what is your take on the Aussie's next move?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,733
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:16pm Sep 14, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on this news, what is your take on the Aussie's next move?
daily pivot today 1.0509 which will act as support
up we go as of news release
down we go any good news in usd specially employment
up we go if aud or china has good news
up we go if euro has rate cut next

how far me dont know..i'm still holding 100% of my 1.0446 long
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,734
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:26pm Sep 14, 2012 5:26pm
Market closed on my broker at 1.05499, current price is: 1.0568x
  • #9,735
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:04pm Sep 14, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting chiknthief
Congrats. Its always good to make pips !!!
Thanks!
  • #9,736
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:05pm Sep 14, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting Nate04
Great job! Congrats!
Thank you!
  • #9,737
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:07pm Sep 14, 2012 11:07pm
Here is my view of the Aussie's next moves. First let's exam weekly and daily charts. There is no "bad" candlestick pattern as of Friday like CHIK bear indicated. The daily indicates a nice red line UT channels.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #9,738
  • Edited Sep 15, 2012 12:29am Sep 14, 2012 11:20pm | Edited Sep 15, 2012 12:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
Here is my view of the Aussie's next moves. First let's exam weekly and daily charts. There is no "bad" candlestick pattern as of Friday like CHIK bear indicated. The daily indicates a nice red line UT channels.
Next, I'd like to present my projection of the Aussie's next moves. This is not a prediction.

First, the Aussie will run up again on Sunday open. This could be in a form of a gap or a vibrant movement in order to reach the upper DTL in a short period within a limited space zone.

The "border crossing" will not take a straightforward approach due to CHIK bear and Co. protesting. It could take a 3-wave form in a triangle to circumvent bears' blockade at the "border". IMHO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-091412-H1.JPG Size: 164 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,739
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:23pm Sep 14, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting gnomoneey
daily pivot today 1.0509 which will act as support
up we go as of news release
down we go any good news in usd specially employment
up we go if aud or china has good news
up we go if euro has rate cut next

how far me dont know..i'm still holding 100% of my 1.0446 long
I was not asking you about its long term impact but an immediate response to this news.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,740
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:26pm Sep 14, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting HotBiscuits
Market closed on my broker at 1.05499, current price is: 1.0568x
Oanda's website has a higher number - 1.05704. [09/15/2012]
daddybearforex. com
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