Euro/Dollar | Page 99 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Euro/Dollar discussion 9 replies

Iran to replace Dollar with Euro 10 replies

Iran replace dollar with euro 15 replies

Syria Threatens To Abandon Dollar For Euro 3 replies

euro against the dollar 0 replies

Attachments: Euro/Dollar
Exit Attachments

Euro/Dollar

  • #1,961
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:27am Sep 13, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Crassius
Sell the Fact Trade -- with a Home run possible:.

Trade Update before announcement.

Lots of sellers right where I sold my first tranche has kept me from getting a fill just below 2950 option barrier before announcement. I will keep that order in place and may get a fill on the announcement.

I also had an order higher against resistance that I just canceled... given where we are starting from, for that order to fill would be indicative of more easing than I want to see, as we are stating sub 2900.

Any mention of MBS buying and I dump as that will be one version of the QE3 scenario I don't want to see... anything of massive QE3 warrants a dump.

Anything else, I have my trade plan and will just let it work out as planned.
  • #1,962
  • Edited 11:59am Sep 13, 2012 11:41am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting Crassius
Trade Update before announcement.

Lots of sellers right where I sold my first tranche has kept me from getting a fill just below 2950 option barrier before announcement. I will keep that order in place and may get a fill on the announcement.

I also had an order higher against resistance that I just canceled... given where we are starting from, for that order to fill would be indicative of more easing than I want to see, as we are stating sub 2900.

Any mention of MBS buying and I dump as that will be one version of the QE3 scenario I don't want...

So we did get the OPen Ended MBS buying. I dumped on the words as planned and got out +30 pips.

Not exactly what I wanted, but a good bet laid.
  • #1,963
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:39pm Sep 13, 2012 1:39pm
1.3000 Do Not Touch option taken out.
  • #1,964
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:13pm Sep 13, 2012 2:13pm
The Euro sure has had a perfect wave to ride with bond yields falling, tail risk removed, and today The Bernanke declares he will print even more dollars.

Buying dips the order of the day as we have cleared and will close above the 61.8% retrace of the 2012 decline..... the 31.8% retrace of the 2011 through 2012 fall comes into view near 3150....
  • #1,965
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:48pm Sep 13, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting Crassius
The Euro sure has had a perfect wave to ride with bond yields falling, tail risk removed, and today The Bernanke declares he will print even more dollars.

Buying dips the order of the day as we have cleared and will close above the 61.8% retrace of the 2012 decline..... the 31.8% retrace of the 2011 through 2012 fall comes into view near 3150....

The perfect wave continues.... Egan Jones says my downgrade US sovereign rating in near future following today's FOMC announcement.
  • #1,966
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:43am Sep 14, 2012 2:43am
Hey Guys

I guess lots of us are busy or tried from work, like me, to post anywhere.

Since big news, both for Europe and USD, now we have great trend waves; generally the good thing about it that when trading a trend, you make mistake once, when the trend is broken.

This very moment is about little pull backs, which should give us another great opportunity to re-enter the traded pairs.
I am sorry, but I cannot post charts now, I will later today but currently:

USDCAD: Current a little pull-back in 30m and 1H TFs, should give us a great short entry to ride to the next low levels as little as : 0.9440

AUDUSD: Since the pair reached the previous highs, but it has had a great fib.38.2 retracement on daily, which points for greater highs, true only in case the previous highs are broken. Next level this should reach is: Fib.127.2-141.4 extension, long before previous highs -> 1.0739-1.0790

USDJPY - Sitting on the resistance, if the draw down continues, and it is not able to close above 77.65, we got a trend continuation, the next stop: ~76.0.

EURJPY - Currently trying to break previous highs, if it does, a great move is expected though I do expect another retest once new highs are reached.
It should first close above 101.61 to see new highs.

GOLD - Myself, I have been riding the gold this week, though it made its current highs, but I expect the gold to reach ~1790$ price level, if that level is breached, then we should expect >1900$. The gold syndrome, people are running there like shelter island.

EURUSD - many say a lot about it, currently this pair is trying to breach previous support levels, which are now resistance level, which is seen since year 2007 several, this level was significant since beginning of this year, I can spot about 10 tries only this year before the current level was taken down to new low levels. Now it is in reversed direction, just in case the 1.3060 is not fully broken higher, me might have a pull-back, we should anticipate for another retest later.

Cheers
  • #1,967
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:31am Sep 14, 2012 4:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-14_12-13-15.png Size: 56 KB
The Gold has had a hammer on 1h chart, it supported nice at the 1767 price level, we should see a continuation now, in case previous highs are btoken with higher closes.
  • #1,968
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:12am Sep 14, 2012 5:12am
Quoting jezek5
Good,I see your vouch count has gone up,well done mate.

Watching Fiber close tonight,needs to be above 2855ish
to keep the bullish tone,i'm thinking it could close right at that level
then a retest of 2750,even maybe as low as 2660ish.

My call for a pullback to 2855 was wrong,daily close
was 2900 keeping the bullish tone.
After the FED we dipped to the 2855 level and hit a wall
of buyers and up she went,(orange arrow),next level looks to be 3130
but i see very little between here and 3300 in my view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: w2.gif Size: 14 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,969
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:14am Sep 14, 2012 5:14am
Quoting mikeylp
Hey Guys

I guess lots of us are busy or tried from work, like me, to post anywhere.

Since big news, both for Europe and USD, now we have great trend waves; generally the good thing about it that when trading a trend, you make mistake once, when the trend is broken.

This very moment is about little pull backs, which should give us another great opportunity to re-enter the traded pairs.
I am sorry, but I cannot post charts now, I will later today but currently:

USDCAD: Current a little pull-back in 30m and 1H TFs, should give us a great...
Mates, it looks like we have the waves on all 6 markets I previously posted.

I couldn't take the trades for UJ and EJ pairs, wasn't around for it. But other markets are doing great.

Green pips to all
  • #1,970
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:17am Sep 14, 2012 5:17am
Quoting jezek5
My call for a pullback to 2855 was wrong,daily close
was 2900 keeping the bullish tone.
After the FED we dipped to the 2855 level and hit a wall
of buyers and up she went,(orange arrow),next level looks to be 3130
but i see very little between here and 3300 in my view.
Indeed it is, Yojik , it just hit me, the relation to your profile image and your nick .
I am currently headed towards 1.3280's and up to 1.3380's. That my next stop.
  • #1,971
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:12am Sep 14, 2012 6:12am
Quoting jezek5
My call for a pullback to 2855 was wrong,daily close
was 2900 keeping the bullish tone.
After the FED we dipped to the 2855 level and hit a wall
of buyers and up she went,(orange arrow),next level looks to be 3130
but i see very little between here and 3300 in my view.
1 hour and 50 pips higher.
3120 hit,10 pips shy of target,thats me done for the week,
have a good weekend guys.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #1,972
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:15am Sep 14, 2012 6:15am
Quoting jezek5
1 hour and 50 pips higher.
3120 hit,10 pips shy of target,thats me done for the week,
have a good weekend guys.
nice...we arent stopping any sooner...have a good one jezek5
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,973
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:09pm Sep 14, 2012 1:09pm
Good evening all.

EURUSD: this pair just sits on a minor support level and waits either to continue its rally or break it and retrace a little more, for full charts and analyses please go here.

AUDUSD: This pair plays quite similar to EUR now , though AUD has his own life, but current minor structure support level and possible bulls continuation for additional 300 pips that plays nice for both pairs. Full details can be found here.

USDJPY - Rallied today since the breach of support level has been false and it reached previous high level. It is hard to say what will happen now, the pair tries to re-test current highs, it depends if it succeeds. If it is not, then short, if it does, then long.

Gold - Currently stuck at the ~1770$ price level, I was sure that this level would be left today, but it did not. A very small bearish divergence, but every time the price tries to get below that 1770$ level, it rallies back, 4H Chart TF has several long shadow leg candles. My stops below that level - 10$, we'll see how it'll play, I still think that the next level is 1991$.

Green Pips all.
  • #1,974
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:38pm Sep 14, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting Crassius
The perfect wave continues.... Egan Jones says my downgrade US sovereign rating in near future following today's FOMC announcement.
Eagan Jones Downgrades US from AA to AA-.

I already decided to leave my longs on over the weekend in one account, will buy dips in another. I am sticking long looking for the 50% retrace of the 2011 - 2012 Fall as a target....1.3490.... this is the perfect storm for Euro Bulls.... Fundamental reasons for a stronger Euro at the same time we have fundamental reasons for a weaker dollar.... both sides of the currency pair are working together.

ECB Rate cut likely next month... they need a weaker Euro.
  • #1,975
  • Sep 15, 2012 1:25pm Sep 15, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting Crassius
.... this is the perfect storm for Euro Bulls.... Fundamental reasons for a stronger Euro at the same time we have fundamental reasons for a weaker dollar.... both sides of the currency pair are working together.
Speculators Fueled The EUR Rally, Turned Net Short On USD


Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did their part in fueling the recent central banks-induced EUR rally, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
Traders slashed their open short EUR position by 7% from a week earlier to reach a net of $15 billion as of Tuesday.


The single currency rose to 5-month high against the USD on Friday on the back of the ultra easing policy from the Federal Reserve through the launching of its QE3 program on Thursday, and from the ECB through its introducing of the OMT program last week.


"Policymakers have re-filled the punchbowl and investors are boogying once more," said Simon Hayes, chief UK economist at Barclays Capital
Traders also turned net short on USD again with a short position of $7 billion compared to a net short position of $694.4 million a weak earlier, according to the report.


CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open long AUD position by 12% from a week earlier to reach a net of $7.1 billion. They also increased their open long JPY position by 38% to reach a net of $5.3 billion, the data showed.


_________________________________________________________________




The CFT report is so lagging I haven't found it very useful. Its a good piece of information to have, but here we are having already run up over 1000 pips from the low, and the report just now reflects Specs are net Long.... not very useful for timing.


It is good to have confirmation in the data that both sides of this pair are now driving trade in the same direction.... and we can draw some conclusions about the strength of future moves from the fact that much of the short squeeze has worked its way out of the market.
  • #1,976
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:42pm Sep 16, 2012 4:42pm
Infighting over European banking union may provide a chance for dip buyers early European session today. A healthy retrace before resumption of trend would be welcome.

I expect intense dollar selling will make any retrace shallow and remain long in my swing trading account. I am set to buy dips in the day trading account, and as always, I have my breakout system account poised to take any of the rare but very consistent trades that system produces.

I really need to spend my time programming instead of posting on this forum. My non-trading friends think I spend all my time trading. I am in front of the screens full time, but most of my time is spent programming new systems or conducting the research and testing that leads to those. The markets are always changing , and always teaching me new insights, so the system development never stops. It is an ongoing process.

You know when I am fooling around procrastinating over some tough programming challenge when I am posting a lot.
  • #1,977
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:27pm Sep 17, 2012 1:27pm
Spike down in WTI has led EURUSD below 3100 again... Rumor of SPR Release or a fat finger trade...who knows...

I actually want to see a healthy retrace as the chart is parabolic and needs time and room to consolidate before moving higher in a healthy way.

I would like to see 3080 break.... where the Chinese CB was selling early NY to try to pop the stops just below, but ran into too many buyers....

There were buyers sitting ahead of 3050 earlier in the day, but I would guess they have pared their orders with Europeans off for the day, and the wide risk off sentiment we see following the WTI spike... Beans has halted trading briefly, so this mood is a across all markets.

I welcome a sell off to re-test 1.3000.... there will probably be buyers 3020 on down to the big figure. That's where I'll be.
  • #1,978
  • Sep 18, 2012 12:37am Sep 18, 2012 12:37am
Good Morning --- another day...

Still looking to buy dips in the day trading account. Looking at levels, there will be spec day traders bids around 3050 today I'm sure, but that seems to close to price as Spanish bond yields climb back over 6% and Euro bullish sentiment waning.

Of more interest to me and where my dip buy orders will be layered into is 3020 today... We have the 100 HMA creeping up near (3004 and rising), a trend line near and rising, the weekly pivot at 3017 and nice prior price action for support against 3020. S2 is at 3034 today... I prefer it if it were closer to 3020.... but a layered approach trailing small buy orders back from S2 against 3020 should provide the best entry today.

A break above 3175 may warrant a buy as I am sure buy stops will be piling in along with the usual stop loss orders that will be tucked in up there... I am not very tempted to buy that high on such a parabolic looking chart.... it will take huge momentum running over 3175 to tempt me in.... better to be patient and wait for price to meet me lower.
  • #1,979
  • Sep 18, 2012 12:56am Sep 18, 2012 12:56am
morning,

been a couple of weeks since I posted a proper look at EU....

Daily
So the run up from 1.204x has EXACTLY reached the 78.2% correction level of the swing down 1.348x to 1.304x. That level is normally the maximum for a correction so any further and I would discounting any ideas that this is still a correction.

So it could of course still go up or down but from this level I would expect a pull because (a) if it is a correction then it has reached a potential limit level (b) if it's not then some retrace is due anyway due to the extended move up and having reached the 78% level.

So on the conservative side I would look for a pullback towards the 61.8% level which sits @ 1.293x. but of course 1.30 is in the way of that and may prove enough to hold the upside in place.

So I am biased to shorts for positional trades below 78% level.

Hourly

since Friday the hourly has been trapped in a range from the double top down to the current level but with a bias towards the lower half of that range. So given the the daily view I would look to short a break of 1.3080 for a positional trade.

good trades to you all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbDaily.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbH1.png Size: 30 KB
  • #1,980
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:25am Sep 18, 2012 3:25am
Quoting Crassius
Good Morning --- another day...


Of more interest to me and where my dip buy orders will be layered into is 3020 today...

I have moved my buy orders a little lower playing for a move into the 100 HMA currently 3014... Weekly pivot 3017....

S2 higher at 3034 may keep a fill from occurring today, but lowering and trimming the position size a little, I can play against 2980 which should keep stops very safe.

Bond yields are rising as Spain delays any bailout request, which is required for any ECB bond buying. The bond vigilantes will try to force Spain's hand by running up yields, weighing on EURUSD till Spain capitulates.

Spain selling bonds in a few minutes widely expected to be a bad auction.... may get me a fill, if we get the stops tucked in below 2050 to pop, and get a fast money move through the daily pivot to meet my first buy order near the weekly pivot, and layered back into the rising 100 HMA.
0 traders viewing now