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  • #52,421
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:24pm Sep 13, 2012 11:24pm
Stulic, your reply to Pair again shows the value of a forum where we can respectfully share differing opinions.

I for one have been too bear focused long term and benefit from thought provoking posts such as yours.

Some of the difficulty will be in how the timing of various events pans out eg interest rate cuts here, commodity price recovery, headline risk out of Europe. If they align one way we could see 1.12. If they align differently we could see mid 90s and then 1.12. As traders this is why we need to follow current price action, with awareness of fundamentals, strong risk management and a trading plan. It also shows why we can't make bold predictions of what will happen long term.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,422
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:35pm Sep 13, 2012 11:35pm
looks Aussie manage to to find it's old fly path
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Mohan
  • #52,423
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:45pm Sep 13, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting stulic
Pair me up, since you're interested in fundamentals I've got a different take on what happened yesterday that might be worth considering, and what implications it could have for the near future and the Aussie dollar.

It's actually a massive move by the FED, much bigger then anybody has expected. Printing over 80 billion of fresh new dollars every month and pump it into the economy, for as long as it takes, will have enormous implications on the value of the Greenback. It could devalue the currency to the levels not seen in a very long time and...
  • #52,424
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:32am Sep 14, 2012 12:32am
Nice bull run up so far. Closed out a few shorts yesterday when it was testing the 4H trend line. I didn't want to take any chances with the FOMC so I have been basically flat since I closed out the shorts for a small profit.

Anyways, here are my projections for the AUD.

I expect us to test the 1.064 area which should provide resistance. This is the weekly down trend resistance for the past year. If it breaks I will look to go long until 1.084.

As you can see from the Weekly chart 1.088 - 1.107 is a major zone of Resistance. I will look to short around the 1.088 area depending on price action while using my own personal strategy to find good entry points in the resistance zone.

Unfortunately I missed most of the recent uptrend due to my own biased view so I will plan my entries to ride this baby back down.

*What goes up must come down*
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #52,425
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:30am Sep 14, 2012 5:30am
Quoting wo1
long 1.045

target1.06x

take profit ...

target 2 1.076x
Never change your position without a good reason
  • #52,426
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:41am Sep 14, 2012 6:41am
Quoting stulic
Pair me up, since you're interested in fundamentals I've got a different take on what happened yesterday that might be worth considering, and what implications it could have for the near future and the Aussie dollar.

It's actually a massive move by the FED, much bigger then anybody has expected. Printing over 80 billion of fresh new dollars every month and pump it into the economy, for as long as it takes, will have enormous implications on the value of the Greenback. It could devalue the currency to the levels not seen in a very long time and...
Great analysis, mate. I'm totally technnicals-oriented but I respect good arguments.

The point now is: where to enter long with minimal drawback?

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #52,427
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:55am Sep 14, 2012 6:55am
We're about to hit the upper boundary of the daily RSI trend channel and 1.065 which is the descending trend line from the 1.1085 high of last June, and if we pass through that, 1.085, the high from February this year, is the next likely target.

If we did see 1.085, it would likely coincide with the Euro, Pound, and Loonie hitting their highs as well, possibly around October 8th/9th when the joint ECB/Fed conference takes place, which would be prime time for a major reversal in all USD pairs.

Regardless, gold and oil are still going up which means the bull market should continue for the Aussie in the near term.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #52,428
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:26am Sep 14, 2012 9:26am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Great analysis, mate. I'm totally technnicals-oriented but I respect good arguments.

The point now is: where to enter long with minimal drawback?

Thanks,
A million dollar question... I was hoping for 1.0515 and then for 1.0551 but of course didn't get a chance to add more longs at any of those levels, either way the ones that are open are screaming "yeah baby"...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,429
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:31am Sep 14, 2012 9:31am
No doubt 1.0660 is NY target but I'll still wait and hope for pullbacks to at least 1.0550 tonight... Pips galore either way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,430
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:58am Sep 14, 2012 9:58am
First time poster in AUD.

I'll short above 1.0640 with SL 1.0690 due to two reasons. First the weekly declining trend line and the 4HR looks out of gas.
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Fear prevent possibilities, and so does Greed
  • #52,431
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:04am Sep 14, 2012 11:04am
So I got a paper account on thinkorswim and I can now see a lot more of the market! Yay! Most importantly, I can do some actual analysis on the USDX.

78.8 lined up with a fib level and may still play a role in today's action. 78.7 plays an ever bigger role. If price closes below these levels, then 78.2 will provide support.

AudUsd is still trading within the daily range from my previous chart. I had some entries last night, but at the last second, I canceled them and for good reason. I would've been stopped out by just a few pips. I think I need to relax stops a little. The 4H chart shows price is below the supply zone by a bit. (1.575-1.06 area). The 1H chart shows price still respecting it's UTL.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,432
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:51am Sep 14, 2012 11:51am
Successful trader's motto: Let your profits run, cut your losses small.

In week 37 review part 1 on EURUSD, i posted on why it is vital to your trading account to keep losses small. In this post, i am sharing why it is equally vital to your trading account to let profits run.

On Wednesday 12th Sept, i gave another live call to long AUDUSD when it touches the 3rd point to form the rising channel. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ng-audusd.html

This trade turns out to be a correct trade. It collected more than +100 green pips. See point 3 on the rising channel.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2nqzfqu.png

On hindsight, i could have let my profitable long trades on 07th Sept to continue running. But hindsight is 20/20. I cannot trade on hindsight. Successful traders trade with foresight. Now, i have a new mind game to learn. I have to train my mind to let my profits run even further! Trading is a mind game.
  • #52,433
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:13pm Sep 14, 2012 12:13pm
Hit the supply zone at 1.06, nice time to sell then. Nice pins at the moment on AUD/USD, NZD/USD. Then again I dont trust Friday pins. Going to wait until Monday and plan.
  • #52,434
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:26pm Sep 14, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting stulic
Pair me up, since you're interested in fundamentals I've got a different take on what happened yesterday that might be worth considering, and what implications it could have for the near future and the Aussie dollar.

It's actually a massive move by the FED, much bigger then anybody has expected. Printing over 80 billion of fresh new dollars every month and pump it into the economy, for as long as it takes, will have enormous implications on the value of the Greenback. It could devalue the currency to the levels not seen in a very long time and...


Excellent Fundamental post. I hope you do more. It really helps to see other aspects of an ecomomy and the conditional situations that could play out. I like these type of thought provoking posts. Keep up the good work Stulic.. and thanks so much.

Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,435
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:05pm Sep 14, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting Kadc
We're about to hit the upper boundary of the daily RSI trend channel and 1.065 which is the descending trend line from the 1.1085 high of last June, and if we pass through that, 1.085, the high from February this year, is the next likely target.

If we did see 1.085, it would likely coincide with the Euro, Pound, and Loonie hitting their highs as well, possibly around October 8th/9th when the joint ECB/Fed conference takes place, which would be prime time for a major reversal in all USD pairs.

Regardless, gold and oil are still going up which...
This is spot on with my analysis a few posts above yours!
  • #52,436
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:09pm Sep 14, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting ForexMGames
Successful trader's motto: Let your profits run, cut your losses small.

In week 37 review part 1 on EURUSD, i posted on why it is vital to your trading account to keep losses small. In this post, i am sharing why it is equally vital to your trading account to let profits run.

On Wednesday 12th Sept, i gave another live call to long AUDUSD when it touches the 3rd point to form the rising channel. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ng-audusd.html

This trade turns out to be a correct trade. It collected...
In all fairness your long AUD/USD call was a gamble due to the MAJOR news event with FOMC.

There is no way anybody could have known 100% for sure what the outcome could be. But regardless, I'm glad you were profitable with your trades!
  • #52,437
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:52pm Sep 14, 2012 3:52pm
a retracement can happen anytime now.. bears coming back into aud.. check out euraud...
  • #52,438
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:31pm Sep 14, 2012 5:31pm
Hello everyone,

The report on Australia is now up and I posted it in a Journal I created. If anyone cares to read it know first:

A. it's a bit long so grab a cup of joe or beer and enjoy
B. It is not a bear/bull peice it stricly covers what has happened so far this year with the given decline in Iron ore and what could be the implications going into 2013

Have a great weekend all.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6014683
  • #52,439
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:39pm Sep 14, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting sidhujag
a retracement can happen anytime now.. bears coming back into aud.. check out euraud...
ya i think your right.
  • #52,440
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:33pm Sep 14, 2012 10:33pm
this is prob the worsed instrument to trade right now. ive been telling ppl for weeks now but cotton and coffee just started a huge bull after creating a base. Money should flow out of where it is now into these commodities
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