AUD/USD

I thought Jp had made that money. I was pretty damned jealous, but not anymore! Though, I wonder just how bad that is in terms of percentage.

Stulic,
Your right I should of come in and said that this was a nice push and that the next hourly bar was going to push through to the upside. I was tending to a bigger loss and was dealing with that and speaking with many ppl on skype both friends and other traders so I will be more prompt when possible.

To all viewers of AUD/USD


I just came back from the steam room to reflect on the day’s events and I came to a big realization. The people that I despise who give false hope, mislead others intentionally, and sheer new eager traders wanting to learn are the worst of the worst and I think after my rhetoric these last few days I have been no better. I don’t guarantee the world to others, I try at all times to give hard truth on how difficult it is to trade at certain times and I post what I am watching. However, the minute I start to shift from an opinion poster to a ‘this is how the markets works and this is where it is going’ type poster is when I deserve to get my account whacked and when I am no better than an analyst.






I want to say that for now on I will ONLY confine to posting in AUD/USD just charts and levels that might be of interest, I will not longer talk about the ‘market this the fed that or any other fundamental data that can be skewed to favor my position at that particular time. I will create a journal where all fundamental data will be discussed, but for now I don’t want to end up with a Savior complex and have the image of I think I know more than everyone, because as today proved I knew as much as the newest guy starting out.

ok stop....

let's get a discussion back


look at my EU for the clue
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post6010942

2 weeks is much enough

My biggest loss ever was over 200K and biggest winner was.... well it was the best day of my life so far. So I know this wont be the last loser I will face just like I know that I will have another winning trade Like the short in August or better.

I thank all of you for your encouragement and I profoundly respect even more the ones who have shown various bull signals over this last week that I blindly did not take seriously Lets get back to AUD/USD

Im in trouble now. But have the stop still in place and Will switch for the longer hold long once we break out.

and i been mentioned these before
thats why
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post5996014
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post5996027

just be alert with a short position...

i know.. and i am very understand about the odds of fundamental judgement...
yeah.. sometimes...

Remembrance again... Isn't self-similarity nice?

JP,

seems as though aud shorts finally stepped in here... depends how strong usdx is now... but you might be able to get out with a small loss around LO or NY

im looking for some profit taking and possibly we come back down a bit in London before the next lift off.

I'm looking at the DXY and it seems to have only dropped .5 from the QE3 announcement. Still has .3 to go before reaching 79. To be exact, 78.8 seems the most logical level for me, even though I can't do things like TL or PA analysis that well with the free web charts I find.

I think the level I'm talking about happened early May?

for me if 79.30 gives way its long wAy down the farther the stronger bull

It closed a bit below the 78.6% from YTD hi/low retrace so I agree we could see a small bounce or immediately tap 88.6% (78.81)

I will say though just looking at AUG from now that is a strong move it has had

You rock, much appreciation for the chart!

I watch your line charts now also they are helpful so thank you also..'

You're an honorable man and a true forex gentleman

Back to trading.

I wouldn't mind seeing some profit taking before London and a pullback to 1.05 area, I'm still waiting to add more at 1.0515 but I'm afraid if 1.0570 gives in as it looks now it will, we might not see 1.0515 today anymore and 1.0620 could be in sight faster then even I could have expected.

Why I should never use BE for trades in profit of less then 100 pips. After getting stopped out at that 50% fib around 1.5445 yesterday, price now dipping below 1.5300
Tempted to rush and jump in but I think better idea is to stay aside or wait for 1.5350 to trigger my sell order. Still convinced we'll see 1.5200 very soon.

2% WTD AUD/USD very impressive move.

Just cut- 300,000 of the entire 2,200,000 short hoping for some profit taking at 1.0619 to come back down to 1.0540-50 area but I will take what I can get at this moment.
Otherwise I am in till the stop mentioned many times

To all ranting about what Jplazard helped me with.

First = I went long with out anyone telling me to do so.

Second = JPlazard is a fundy guy. New traders really need to learn fundies unless they are traing to be scalpers. And even then maybe still need fundies.

Third = I have conviction in Jplazards shorting of the Aussie Dollar as do many more experienced traders on this thread keep mentioning.

Fourth = If anyone paid attention, JPlazard is a POSITION TRADER! That means he can hold a position for a really long time regardless of 20 or 30 pip move against him, because he is going for the Tidal Wave type of moves, versus us traders like me, with a tiny account try to catch waves from the wake of bigger waves.

Fifth = I am still planning to short the Aussie, I told myself.. if I know I will short higher, and I expect it to go up, why not go long and make some profit before I enter short.

Sixth = I knew I was taking a Risk with the German court/FOMC decision, but buy the rumor right. So, it was fortunate for me that those politically charged people made desicions that would help this temporary bull run. After all the money they are using in my view is only to pay off debt and doesn't help unemployment, ect.

Seventh = Everyone is right that we need to trade our own convictions. Plus, I live in Asia.. so most of the time, there is no more experienced trader on line to get feed back during my waking hours since most are asleep. Plus.. I want to learn how to trade on my own.

I am indeed grateful for all traders that share charts and especially fundies.

I believe that once the bigger fundies start hitting the fan, Aussie will sink like a steel ball going toward a magnet. But I could be wrong.

Yesterday I could have closed my positions, because it was yo-yo-ing like crazy. Jp said wait for the next bar and let the market calm down. So, I know he has more experience.. That was on skype. No way talking like that would have worked on FF.. Just not fast enough.

I hope posters with more experience will continue to put their calls and viewpoints on FF.

For new traders, follow the views and learn as much as you can. Learn to cut loses.. <== my weakness.

Alright.. Gotta catch up on the news, and read more books.

Good luck all..

Pair me up, since you're interested in fundamentals I've got a different take on what happened yesterday that might be worth considering, and what implications it could have for the near future and the Aussie dollar.

It's actually a massive move by the FED, much bigger then anybody has expected. Printing over 80 billion of fresh new dollars every month and pump it into the economy, for as long as it takes, will have enormous implications on the value of the Greenback. It could devalue the currency to the levels not seen in a very long time and I'm now more inclined to lean towards the Aussie being above $1.12 at the end of the year, then ever before.

The RBA will have to cut rates more agressively then they would've usually done in order to curb the Aussie but if the US stimulus starts to actually kick in it will inevitably have impacts on the commodity markets as well and iron ore prices amongst other important commodities Australian exporters rely on, will pick up again and the proof for that we've already seen today.

This could have positive effects on the mining industry due to higher earnings and for the government for being able to collect more taxes.
If then China joins with more stimulus as well, we'll be back to where we were before, wages and prices would rise again making it impossible for the RBA to cut rates too much due to elevated inflation risk, and we know very well how the board suffers from a chronic inflation-fobia.

Just my opinion, from today on I see absolutely nothing fundamentally justifying a crash of the Aussie dollar, to do contrary I see $1.12 more likely then parity.