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  • #11,701
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:11pm Sep 13, 2012 2:11pm
How to play CHINA WEAKNESS and USD devaluation simultaneously

thanks for the compliments in all the other posts, shomari.

on the WHY and WHEN...you are right. i dont really have much to add.

SHOMARI, i want your thoughts on the currently developing fundamental situation....

#1. CHINA bad numbers = WEAK comm dolls. we know this.

#2. USD relentless QE = WEAK USD = short USD...(bernanke promised $40 billion buying of mortgage back securities EVERY MONTH...yes, that is EVERY MONTH...till the end of the year.....in addition to $85 billion in new assets) = short USD.

obviously, this creates a "conflict"...on one hand, case #1 =weak china = short AUD,NZD, SGD, HKD, TWD, etc.... on the other hand, case #2 = short USD = bullish for AUD, NZD, SGD, HKD, TWD...etc...so, we have short AUD...then long AUD...so to speak.....

and since currencies are traded from the majors(USDXXX or XXXUSD)...that creates a "conflict"....

the only thing i can think of right now is to use something that benefits from short comm dolls and short USD = XAG, XAU.

any other ideas? i will really appreciate it.



Quoting shomari
Guys, Sky pointed it out best, technicals can get you all confused if you don't know the fundamentals, the WHY, of why you are trading a certain pair.
For example when someoe asks me, "Shomari why are you shorting a/j ?" My answer will sound something like.."Because Chinese manufacturing is down due too low U.S. consumer demand."
You see, a seasoned market veteran will understand exactly what I'm saying. A half assed trained trader will not even understand the significance of what I just said. (Hence, if you feel me
on what I just said,...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,702
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:17pm Sep 13, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting shomari
Guys, Sky pointed it out best, technicals can get you all confused if you don't know the fundamentals, the WHY, of why you are trading a certain pair.
For example when someoe asks me, "Shomari why are you shorting a/j ?" My answer will sound something like.."Because Chinese manufacturing is down due too low U.S. consumer demand."
You see, a seasoned market veteran will understand exactly what I'm saying. A half assed trained trader will not even understand the significance of what I just said. (Hence, if you feel me
on what I just said,...
and where can we learn about fundamental analysys because i don't even have a clue from where to begin and what is forth to learn cuz macroeconomy is large
  • #11,703
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:26pm Sep 13, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting Skynet
i agree with you...but i DID took a long CAD/HKD...which is basically a short USD using CAD without directly doing it through USD/CAD.....i dont want to do the direct short USDXXX or XXXUSD due to the volatility of bernanke...(for the reason you stated above--it is madness given the volatility)...so, i went with a derivative(CAD/HKD)...also, i am already loaded to the brim with XAGs and XAUs....and my first choice were the CHFs, EUROs and GBPs derivative...however, i couldnt find a nice CHF, euro or gbp derivative to short USD with that has the...
Dude, that is so fucking gorgeous, I think I just came in my shorts. LOL!! Seriously though, GORGEOUS. Again, FX porn bro.
I am so sold on the exotics I CANNOT WAIT TO START TRADING AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love the way we can use other pairs in place of others !! (I knew you could, but I'm gonna take it seriously now. AWESOME). Yo, write a post about which pairs to use in place of others, that is the shit !!!
Also, next Monday you gotta come with which exotics are in play.

Oh man, dudes, I'm just sitting here watching the charts fly, it's torture.
  • #11,704
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:42pm Sep 13, 2012 2:42pm
I think I am neither fundamentalist nor I am a technical trader as such.
I just press buttons



Quoting Skynet
makes sense to me.




i personally dont think that been aware of geo-political/economics developments is too much thinking. Saying that it is "too much thinking" is just a rationalization, in my opinion. If you dont want to use fundie, that is fine. In fact, if you read the market wizards book one of the complaints of pure fundamental traders in those books is how technical analysis creates "Analysis to the point of paralysis" or to put it another way: too much thinking. Due to the multiple, potential interpretations of technical setups. I...
  • #11,705
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:44pm Sep 13, 2012 2:44pm
The interesting thing about fundamentals is that while China is slowing and NZD and Aud basically depend upon China, still they are moving up... I do not remember but someone told that markets can stay irrational longer than trader can stay solvent. I personally do not care why or how, I just see they move this or that way and I enter.
  • #11,706
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:44pm Sep 13, 2012 2:44pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Ahem, not bad. got stoped chf/jpy after being 100+ pips for BE and aud/chf was maximum 4:1 got stopped for 3:1. 3% trade. the rest is doing fine gbp/nzd causes some concerns. too little pips and not as good as eur/nzd. eur/nzd gonna move stop to BE soon. definitely before boarding the plane.

Attachment

FUCK ACCOUNT STATUS, DROP SOME CHARTS ON THESE FOOLS COW !!

I'm not gonna show you my account, just how I BAKE THE CAKE. "Mmmmmm Shomari, that is so delicious. What is that?"
"Oh, just a little break of the retracment trendline in the form of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on my trigger chart," hahahha!!

Seriously though, no on gives a shit about your assesment of the flavor, it's all about, how do you bake the cake COW ? Let's see some charts with analysis.
  • #11,707
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:47pm Sep 13, 2012 2:47pm
some interesting link but crappy translation from German

http://translate.google.de/translate...4.html&act=url
  • #11,708
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:54pm Sep 13, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting shomari
FUCK ACCOUNT STATUS, DROP SOME CHARTS ON THESE FOOLS COW !!

I'm not gonna show you my account, just how I BAKE THE CAKE. "Mmmmmm Shomari, that is so delicious. What is that?"
"Oh, just a little break of the retracment trendline in the form of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on my trigger chart," hahahha!!

Seriously though, no on gives a shit about your assesment of the flavor, it's all about, how do you bake the cake COW ? Let's see some charts with analysis.

I dropped eur/nzd yesterday there were plan A but definitely there was plan B I did not mention cause I actually was very sure about eur/nzd breaking that upper trend line. I was going to buy at 1.5575 break out if any candle 4-8H chart would close above that level. But when I got up at night and saw price action and its relation to ma's I decided that it is better to wait for further PA and just at afternoon I saw and my gut told me sell along with gbp/nzd which i do not like for now. Really do not like. why it is lagging for God sake. I am ready to risk this 1% cause gbp/nzd sure can run and nzd looks like moving up but GBP is not a basket case yet. Might get hit into face yet. Until stop at be I am a bit nervous. I remember I posted some other charts before. But there is no analysis. as I stated I just press buttons
  • #11,709
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:55pm Sep 13, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting shomari
FUCK ACCOUNT STATUS, DROP SOME CHARTS ON THESE FOOLS COW !!

I'm not gonna show you my account, just how I BAKE THE CAKE. "Mmmmmm Shomari, that is so delicious. What is that?"
"Oh, just a little break of the retracment trendline in the form of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on my trigger chart," hahahha!!

Seriously though, no on gives a shit about your assesment of the flavor, it's all about, how do you bake the cake COW ? Let's see some charts with analysis.

btw, I do look for head and shoulders/ double/ triple tops but only on daily chart. it is speculative trades and I take them when I see what I am looking for but mostly I am looking to go with a trend.
  • #11,710
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:56pm Sep 13, 2012 2:56pm
one more point. I am not predicting. I am reacting.
  • #11,711
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:08pm Sep 13, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting shomari
Dude, that is so fucking gorgeous, I think I just came in my shorts. LOL!! Seriously though, GORGEOUS. Again, FX porn bro.
I am so sold on the exotics I CANNOT WAIT TO START TRADING AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love the way we can use other pairs in place of others !! (I knew you could, but I'm gonna take it seriously now. AWESOME). Yo, write a post about which pairs to use in place of others, that is the shit !!!
Also, next Monday you gotta come with which exotics are in play.

Oh...
thanks, man. i will post some stuff over the weekend.



Quoting Holy Cow
I think I am neither fundamentalist nor I am a technical trader as such.
I just press buttons
I, on the other hand, i just have my monkey throw darts at the wall. which ever one get hit, i trade.



Quoting Holy Cow
The interesting thing about fundamentals is that while China is slowing and NZD and Aud basically depend upon China, still they are moving up...
this makes my brain hurts....honestly, this is not complicated: china bad economic news = weak comm dolls......now, draghi came in with unlimited bond purchase(that very day -- the 6th of september(or 5th depending on where you are in the world) was when the comm dollars started rallying...that very day.)...unlimited bond buying or LTRO or QE or operation twist or whatever = rallying for the comm dollars. who doesnt know this? superimpose every major financial money printing you will see a rally in the comm dolls....who doesnt know this?
On top of that the looming QE 3(which became a reality today) = bullish AUD, nzd, cad, etc...why? because they are pegged to USD. currencies DO NOT exit in isolation...when one goes down, the other goes up. that is why they are AUD/USD...and not AUD or USD by itself. china doesnt exit in a vacuum....euro and usa do not exit in a vacuum....they all influence each other....how hard is this to understand? IF china is the ONLY AND ONLY POSSIBLE thing influencing the comm dollars, then you will be right...but that is not our reality. In our reality, there is this big, influential country called the united states of america and there is this continent called europe with eurozone...also there is something call QE3 and somebody called draghi who is going to use the ECB to engage in unlimited bond buying.(anounced on 6th of sept or 5th of september).

if you dont like fundamentals, that is fine. nobody is putting a gun to your head to like it...but please, stop making statements and declaration that doesnt make sense.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,712
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:17pm Sep 13, 2012 3:17pm
LOL, Skynet, just do not let your primate read news or listen to talking heads. she might join my club onMed

But seriously, if this straightforward thing like aud and nzd depending on exports to China and still going up after weak China news what a heck should we little tinkerers do?
I think someone already made all analysis and I just want to ride one's coattail. I was once reading some excellent thread albeit by excellent stock trader and he wrote there that he is not in business of predicting but in business of reacting and he did a hell of good reactions.
I remember I was following for some time James16 thread. Technicalists. I believe it is a load of cr*p, pin bars and other stuff. I saw a huge number of those pins being destroyed. definitely there is some little sense there but not a lot. candles even daily candles by themselves mean nothing it is how they fit into bigger picture what matters. James16 on the other hand as far as I remember never showed his trading results and still selling his "assistance" for cool $$$ for God knows how many suckers and write himslef or via his avatars some guru like stuff.

Quoting Skynet
thanks, man. i will post some stuff over the weekend.





I, on the other hand, i just have my monkey throw darts at the wall. which ever one get hit, i trade.





this makes my brain hurts....honestly, this is not complicated: china bad economic news = weak comm dolls......now, draghi came in with unlimited bond purchase(that very day -- the 6th of september(or 5th depending on where you are in the world) was when the comm dollars started...
  • #11,713
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:25pm Sep 13, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting shomari
FUCK ACCOUNT STATUS, DROP SOME CHARTS ON THESE FOOLS COW !!

I'm not gonna show you my account, just how I BAKE THE CAKE. "Mmmmmm Shomari, that is so delicious. What is that?"
"Oh, just a little break of the retracment trendline in the form of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on my trigger chart," hahahha!!

Seriously though, no on gives a shit about your assesment of the flavor, it's all about, how do you bake the cake COW ? Let's see some charts with analysis.
Shomari, I also want to point that many trades retrace against me very considerably more than half of pips and I still stay put and do not take profits. some guys close trades right away, start rationalizing about why they should take profit... If I am not mistaken Jesse Livermore told that he made more money by sitting than by trading
  • #11,714
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:29pm Sep 13, 2012 3:29pm
i know the temptation you are having: you need to beleive that technical analysis is all you need, which is fine. but dont try to use that to make untenable arguments against fundamental analysis.

earlier, SHOMARIi commented on the fact that you would probably not have lost -500pips in retracement if you know about fundamentals....i dont want to be truculent, but shomari is right. the DRAGHI unlimited bond buying was announced on 6th or 5th of september...that very day was when the present retracement rally in comm dolls began....i liquidated most of my short comm dolls positions except that of CHFs and XAGs and XAUs...because i know from fundamental reading that these kind of financial intervention always bullish the comm dolls. I kept the CHFs and XAGs and XAUs because they were the strongest fundamentally and from the heatmap.

i wasnt expecting draghi comment on sept 6th when i posted here on sept 1st about shorting comm dolls to oblivion.(i am still short with XAGs and some XAUs..by the way.). Obviously, i cant see the future....and to me, the current best position is still short the comm dolls..and with QE3 add short the USD to the list...with xag and xau.




Quoting Holy Cow
LOL, Skynet, just do not let your primate read news or listen to talking heads. she might join my club onMed

But seriously, if this straightforward thing like aud and nzd depending on exports to China and still going up after weak China news what a heck should we little tinkerers do?
I think someone already made all analysis and I just want to ride one's coattail. I was once reading some excellent thread albeit by excellent stock trader and he wrote there that he is not in business of predicting but in business of reacting and he did...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,715
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:31pm Sep 13, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting Skynet
How to play CHINA WEAKNESS and USD devaluation simultaneously

thanks for the compliments in all the other posts, shomari.

on the WHY and WHEN...you are right. i dont really have much to add.

SHOMARI, i want your thoughts on the currently developing fundamental situation....

#1. CHINA bad numbers = WEAK comm dolls. we know this.

#2. USD relentless QE = WEAK USD = short USD...(bernanke promised $40 billion buying of mortgage back securities EVERY MONTH...yes, that is EVERY MONTH...till the end of the year.....in...

That's a very good question, and that's why we have to wait til next week to see where the big boys take us. It really doesn't matter what we think after all, does it ?
What i'm trying to get at is this:
As far as I can see, we have 3 major events going on simultaneously, and it's up to the BIG MONEY to decide which event/s take precedents.

THE THREE EVENTS:
1)(obviously) China's slowdown/collapse ?
2)The Germans aquiescing to the bailouts=shiny new European bailout toy
3)A brand new shiny QE3 toy for FED to play with

So what the significance (IMHO) is, is this..If they think China downturn is more important, we short comms.
If they think ECB thing works, that creates demand for cheap China shit so we go long comms, (devil in detais though)
If QE3 is the catalyst, then we're RISK OFF

That's why I'm not trading this week. Next Tuesday the Big dogs will make their moves. That is the time we'll know which direction the markets will go for the short to medium term 1-3 months.
Now, if your asking me my quick analysis of the weeks events, I think the FED decision will only show temporary results, 1-3 mths, the ESM remains to be seen (but who gives a shit !!!? If the governments aren't forced to sort their problems out, it's all for nothing). Most importantly, if those plans don't work and create some serious demand, China's through, hence, COMMDOLL MELTDOWN.
Let's wait til mid week and see what the concensus is, because as far as I go, what I think don't mean shit !! (in terms of moving markets).

PS. I HOPE YOU ALL WATCHED OR WILL WATCH THE KILL VIDS I POSTED. THAT'S THE SHIT WE'LL BE DOING STARTING NEXT WEEK.
  • #11,716
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:35pm Sep 13, 2012 3:35pm
Skynet, I am not doing technical analysis the kind of used here. It is hard to say and of course I do not disregard fundamentals. it is just that I am reacting towards what market does. That guy Draghi speech sure steered things. I was all in green before his speech and practically got kicked out for nothing with all my efforts. so, I do pay attention, but one guy told me when i was bitching about that ultimately in most cases news push price along established trend, not against it. It is all about odds. one just need to go with a crowd.


Quoting Skynet
i know the temptation you are having: you need to beleive that technical analysis is all you need, which is fine. but dont try to use that to make untenable arguments against fundamental analysis.

earlier, shomari made a statement about you not losing 500pips in retracement if you know about fundamentals....i dont mean to truculent, but he is right. that DRAGHI unlimited bond buying was announced on 6th or 5th of september...that very day was when this retracement rally in comm dolls began....i liquidated most of positions...
  • #11,717
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:38pm Sep 13, 2012 3:38pm
You did a right thing then. I was up 9-10% and was making happy dance when saw that sharp reversal. unlike you I did not close trades manually cause I was thinking that as in most cases news against trend usually cause just temporary spike and trusted my BE stops. it was bad decision. but it is hard to know beforehand.
  • #11,718
  • Edited 5:28pm Sep 13, 2012 3:42pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting vladutz112
and where can we learn about fundamental analysys because i don't even have a clue from where to begin and what is forth to learn cuz macroeconomy is large
Go to www.babypips.com and do the course FREE!!!!!!!
Then Google the following:
"bond prices and forex market"
"credit default swaps and forex market"
"interest rates and forex market"
"COT charts and forex market"
"VIX and forex market" (not so much but useful in times of panic)

goto: www.oanda.com and get heatmap (again Sky you know)

Enjoy and learn
  • #11,719
  • Edited 5:35pm Sep 13, 2012 4:46pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting Skynet
thanks, man. i will post some stuff over the weekend.





I, on the other hand, i just have my monkey throw darts at the wall. which ever one get hit, i trade.





this makes my brain hurts....honestly, this is not complicated: china bad economic news = weak comm dolls......now, draghi came in with unlimited bond purchase(that very day -- the 6th of september(or 5th depending on where you are in the world) was when the comm dollars...
Now Cow listen,for crying out loud, Google the shit I told everyone to Google and you'll understand what we're talking about. (THAT GOES FOR EVERYONE)

It's not rocket science for peat sake. Data = decision.

If some chick is gonna kick you in the nuts,= you place your hands on your balls and wait for impact (yes. I'm on my 5th pint ). The markets are the same, if there's no demand=short comms, if financial meltdown=JPY, USD, CHF long. I mean for fuck sake guys will you please really google the stuff I said and read it? Please. Then we'll be on the same page, and it's not hard, it's basic stuff.
Listen guys, EVERY SERIOUS TRADER KNOWS THIS STUFF !!! It's no secret, I've posted links to articles on all these subjects already. Given the templates and idicators. Sky dropped the heatmap and currecy idexes a while back.
Guys, this is publicly available information. Heatmaps, CDS prices, COT charts, with analysis, there's no secret here guys. No "edge" as people like to think. It's only reading data ad trading according to the cosequeces of that data on the real world, on life, reality. The only "edge" is your level of informativeness. Those who know, profit, those who are lazy (may profit) but are usually killed (with 500 pip retracements OUCH!!). Wake the fuck up boys. read the little articles beside the news events on FF so you uderstand why all those bits of information matter and how traders (REAL traders) use it,
This isn't some secret society where only the initiated know the knowledge, this is a job, like any other. And like a mechanic needs to know how to use a wrench, a trader needs to know how to evaluate and apply information from other correlating markets. That's just how it is. The only limitation to your kowledge is YOU, stopping yourself from knowing more. All the data is freely available, it is only you and your lazyness that is keepig you from understanding the markets fully, and nothing able to appreciate the bits of data that come out every so often.
Not knowing the macro data, is YOUR FAULT ALONE.
I feel no sympathy for the lazy trader. May his account slowly dwindle before his eyes like this fucker below.

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS TO TRADERS WHO WANNA HALF ASS IT IN THE MARKETS !!!! (This dude should have known the fundamentals)
YOU WANNA BE LAZY, MAY YOUR ACCOUNT EVAPORATE BEFORE YOUR EYES LIKE THIS FUCKER!!!
http://www.break.com/usercontent/200...Fq9h2TIPS0QYCo

No I don't wish that, I wish you would all spend the time and read a little bit cause it would make your trading lives sooooo much easier, and we could all just sit an talk about the profits we made.
For those who want to be profitable google the shit I talked about in the post directly above.
  • #11,720
  • Sep 13, 2012 5:17pm Sep 13, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Skynet, I am not doing technical analysis the kind of used here. It is hard to say and of course I do not disregard fundamentals. it is just that I am reacting towards what market does. That guy Draghi speech sure steered things. I was all in green before his speech and practically got kicked out for nothing with all my efforts. so, I do pay attention, but one guy told me when i was bitching about that ultimately in most cases news push price along established trend, not against it. It is all about odds. one just need to go with a crowd.

Yes , we are just following a herd (The big dogs, NOT the small speculators. re COT charts) That's what ALL retail traders are/should be doing. But why do most crash and burn ? Because they don't know WHY they are doing what they are doing, so they get caught up in bad situations (like yours) without knowing WHY they are in the situation they are in.
Sky said it perfectly, Draghi's announcement changed things. Now, you may have made money (by luck), just trading the technicals, but you're like a retarded child who doesn't know WHY things happen the way they do. Why you made money.
Whereas in this situation we KNEW Draghi's announcement was pivotal and were out of the markets, though we were poised to pounce long or short on certan pairs even before he spoke, knowing what the consequecess of a positive or negative announcement would be, on eah pair, BEFORE HAND.
That's the power of knowledge.
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