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  • #11,681
  • Edited Sep 13, 2012 8:39am Sep 12, 2012 10:53pm | Edited Sep 13, 2012 8:39am
Quoting 4rexx
I like your style shomari if we lend each other our ears and eyes we should be in good shape to position ourselves for next week (or longer). If we establish a bias on a number of trending pairs, or identify the top or bottom of a market and post our analysis for others to comment on to see if they agree or disagree it will create some hot educational debates! It could become an recurring event!

Persistence overcomes resistance!

ps well done HC have a good vacation!
Thanks 4rexx, I've been meaninng to say, as well, you've been dropping some sweet science yourself. Thanks for all your contributions, all very useful.
Yeah bro, together with all we know, shiiiiiiiit, this market doesn't have a chance !!! Hehehe!!
Next week we are gonna kick some major tail dude. You ready ? LOL !!
Yeah, I've got some good COT analysis sites and a few trendscanners, so I'll be posting that stuff beginning of next week. Skys got the heatmap and exotics sown up, so yeah man, next week is gonna be data rich.
I'll admit it everyone, I AM EXCITED !!!
I know I overdid it last night but honestly, this weeks news is like the sound of th herds of wildabeat coming to the watering hole, and we're a bunch of lions waiting in the grass for them to come and take a drink.
Which will be the weak one ? CAD, AUD, EUR ? Once he is exposed, we kill him, we ride that mother fucker short like there's no tomorrow.
September is always an exciting trading time because all the politicians and big fund managers and hedgefund guys come back from vacationing on their multimillion dollar yachts and are hungry to start making money again to get those Christmas bonus numbers up. Which means deeeeeeeeep trends !!
Anyways, yes, next week we pool resources and plan the invasion.
  • #11,682
  • Edited Sep 13, 2012 8:41am Sep 12, 2012 11:22pm | Edited Sep 13, 2012 8:41am
Ok ok, so I've started to analyse the German court ruling and all I can say is " WHAT THE FUCK ARE THOSE PEOPLE THINKING !!!!!!!?" Their ruling basically setup more roadblocks to success than there were before. No eurobonds, no binding treaties etc. Oh man, they fucked up BIG TIME!!!! I'm not even close to finishig my analysis, but from the little I've leared so far, you can forget about the rally in the euro yesterday. Once people get into the details (like I've been saying about European plans for months, "the devil is always in the details.") they are not going to like this one bit. I don't.
Of course like I always say, I could be completely wrong.
So, my first prediction of the new trading season: next week people will have realized how destructive this ruling has been and the EUR, SHORT !!!

Anyways likeI said I haven't finished absorbing the data yet, so it might not be as bad as I think, but here's an article that kind of goes over the general components of the deal, and if they're correct, this doesn't look good for the Euro in the longterm.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ed-ruling.html

There's the article. The Telegraph tends to be an anti Euro paper, so take their analysis with a grain of salt.
  • #11,683
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:03am Sep 13, 2012 2:03am
having single currency and no common fiscal policy was a stupid thing to start with as we see Germans footing Greeks' bills now.
Anyway, I think it is better to not get carried away with too much thinking. Just go with a flow. I personally do not read any news of this kind cause I think market takes care of everything.

Quoting shomari
Ok ok, so I've started to analyse the German court ruling and all I can say is " WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU PEOPLE THINKING !!!!!!!?" Their ruling basically setup more roadblocks to success than there were before. Nno eurobonds,o binding treaties etc. Oh man they fucked up BIG TIME!!!! I'm not even close to finishig my analysis, but from the little I've leared so far, you can forget about the rally in the euro yesterday. Once people get into the details (like I've been saying about European plans for months, "the devil is always in the details.")...
  • #11,684
  • Edited 10:30am Sep 13, 2012 9:27am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting Holy Cow
having single currency and no common fiscal policy was a stupid thing to start with as we see Germans footing Greeks' bills now.
Anyway, I think it is better to not get carried away with too much thinking. Just go with a flow. I personally do not read any news of this kind cause I think market takes care of everything.

Until these guys fully integrate,there can only be patchwork half measures to keep the thing together. Either unite already, or forget about it.

Cow though, bro....to much THINKING ?!! You can never think too much.
How do you think "the market", (which happens to be us, TRADERS) make the markets move ? On information my bovine buddy, data, reality. The only way to know the data is to read it.
Not to call you out or anything, but that 500 pip retrace you took on some of the trades you've been in could easily have been (and should have been) averted if you had just read your COT charts (which would have shown you the reversal in large and small speculator contract purchases), and followed EU bond prices (which would have shown you a lower borrowing cost for at-risk EU nations, thus signalling a slight growth in investor confidence over the ECB's plan). TRADING 101 !! Man, I was out of those trades a MONTH AND A HALF AGO !! (CHECK MY BACKPOSTS OF MY TRADES) Sorry I wasn't following the thread, or I would have told you to get out.
Yeah, we all trade with the flow, but if you don't know where that flow is taking you, you can end up crahed out on the rocks, or worse, go right over a waterfall!! OUCH!!!
That's the whole point of understanding fundamental ananlysis. Why the hell do you think forex factory posts all those news events on their home page? It's the very first page you get when you type in www.forexfactory.com. Why do you guys think that is ?!!! It's not for fucking decoration for crying out loud!! It's because that's the news the big boys use to make their trading decisions, and now thanks to the internet, what once used to be information that was hard to find is now at all our finertips. Wake up !!! The whole point to forex factory is that you get all the news (fundamental data) in one easy to use website. The internet is the great equalizer.
If you don't know what happens when EU bond prices hit 7%, or how US consumer demand affects manufacturing in China, and thus the commdolls we trade, you are trading blind. Almost guessing really.
How do you know that that uptrend trend you see on the e/u in the H1 isn't really just a retrace of an H4 trend ? You would know, if you knew, say, Italian bonds are at 7% thus EUR will continue short on the next swing. I mean, we are just trading reality here. If people stop buying Chinese crap, Chinese warehouses get flooded with surplus goods. THAT'S REALITY, and we trade the effects of it. How can you trade life, reality, if you don't know what's going on in the world ? You can't !! You can only pray that the technical setups you see in you charts are the right ones to trade and that you've chosen the true direction of the trend.
You wanna stay a Cow and not become a STEAK!! LOL!!!

OK EVERYBODY, LIKE I"VE SAID 100 TIMES BEFORE.....
Every serious trader must know how interest rates, bond prices, CDS, etc, affect the forex market. If you don't .....

GOOGLE THE FOLLOWING!! :

bond prices and forex market
COT charts and forex market
CDS and forex market
interest rates and forex market

GOTO: www.oanda.com and look up their heatmap (Sky, I couldn't resist )

This is a good start for anyone who's serious about taking their trading to the next level. (What the hell do you think the pros look at people?).

If you are allergic to data, the forex market IS NOT FOR YOU !!
  • #11,685
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:36am Sep 13, 2012 10:36am
excellent posts....let me quickly get started.....
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,686
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:41am Sep 13, 2012 10:41am
it looks like eur/nzd wants to go in another direction. if it goes down might be the next leg in far longer term downtrend. I am in. risk as usually 1% on 150 pips , cannot miss, might be a good run.
  • #11,687
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:55am Sep 13, 2012 10:55am
Quoting shomari
Until these guys fully integrate,there can only be patchwork half measures to keep the thing together. Either unite already, or forget about it.

Cow though, bro....to much THINKING ?!! You can never think too much.
How do you think "the market", (which happens to be us, TRADERS) make the markets move ? On information my bovine buddy, data, reality. The only way to know the data is to read it.
Not to call you out or anything, but that 500 pip retrace you took on some of the trades you've been in could easily have been (and should...
Hi Shomari. Thank you for the always very informative posts.
Is there a place where we can find charts of CDS and bond yield spreads?

Thank you!
Joao Paulo
  • #11,688
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:59am Sep 13, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Holy Cow
it looks like eur/nzd wants to go in another direction. if it goes down might be the next leg in far longer term downtrend. I am in. risk as usually 1% on 150 pips , cannot miss, might be a good run.
I wouldn't get into ANYTHING this week. We've got the FOMC decisions and press conferences in a few hours. Don't be surprised to see multiple price spikes etc today. Only a fool would be in the markets today.

Exit all trades, or set tight stops if you're already in something.
Next week the 2nd half of the trading season starts. That's when we begin to pad our accounts again.

But this week, all we can do is wait
  • #11,689
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:07am Sep 13, 2012 11:07am
Quoting shomari
Ok ok, so I've started to analyse the German court ruling and all I can say is " WHAT THE FUCK ARE THOSE PEOPLE THINKING !!!!!!!?" Their ruling basically setup more roadblocks to success than there were before. No eurobonds, no binding treaties etc. Oh man, they fucked up BIG TIME!!!!
personally, i am not sure to what extents they are fucked. basically, i am not as pessimistic as you on this. my reasons are as follows:

but draghi can buy bonds in the open market through the ECB...yes, the german BUNDESTAG put restrictions...with regards to the ESM....but one good point that was made by the german newspaper, de speigel, is that ever since the beginning...the germans has never said NO to any form of financial bailout that was proposed...that the provisions could be a paper tiger....that when push comes to shove, the german will rubberstamp whatever is put in front of them(this is historical accurate so far since the eurozone mess saga started...however, for how long into the future will this continue? i dont know.)

Also, the spanish bonds has started to go lower recently(for the time being anyways....)

I also believe that the politicians will do whatever it takes to save their euro. they will throw out whatever kitchen sink of shenanigans needed to save it...and i have a doubt that germans will want to go down as the people that could have saved the euro but didnt because they dont want to shell out more money.


Quoting shomari
......
I'm not even close to finishig my analysis, but from the little I've leared so far, you can forget about the rally in the euro yesterday. Once people get into the details (like I've been saying about European plans for months, "the devil is always in the details.") they are not going to like this one bit. I don't.
i dont disagree with this.. but i think your logical reason makes one assumption: it is actually logical. I dont think the politician will allow logical course of action to take hold. Let us take a look back at this euromess from the beginning....HERE IS A QUICK timeline of the EUROMESS till june this year.

Look at the bag of tricks constantly thrown at the situation.....I HAVE THIS DISTINCT FEELING that when it comes down to it...they will find a way around the german constraints.

even wikipedia has a good summary of the mess.(what is striking in this summary is the relentless bag of tricks that have been deployed...the staggering costs...and i dont think the politicians are willing to call it quit anytime soon.)

Is there a short euro? rationally yes....however, i have no idea the bag of hopium the politicians are going to deploy. that is my main concern..otherwise, i will agree with you 100%.

i like zerohedge bullet point summary of the german court decision:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/flash-...-mean-eurozone


What will the German Constitutional Court ruling mean for the eurozone?
Summary: Today, the German Constitutional Court ruled that the Eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the ESM, and its ‘fiscal treaty’ on budget discipline do not violate the country’s ‘basic law’ and do not undermine Bundestag sovereignty over budget issues. However, the Court added a cap to the size of the ESM. It also reinforced the effective ‘veto’ of the German Bundestag over ESM activation, and therefore in effect also over a debtor country’s access to the ECB’s bond-buying programme (OMT), since the two are linked. However, the ruling was not unambiguous and in many ways an invitation to further court cases – over ECB bond-buying and others – and a lot more political wrangling.
WHAT DID THE RULING SAY?
This decision merely referred to the question of whether to grant a temporary injunction against the ESM. The full ruling on the complaints is expected in early 2013. However, since the law can now be finalised, and as an international treaty may be difficult to reverse, many expect the final ruling to be along the same lines.
Key points:

 

  1. Cap of €190bn on German ESM contribution, which can only be overturned by the Bundestag
  2. Both houses of German Parliament need to be adequately informed about all ESM decisions – something which needs to be enshrined in “international law"
  3. Reinforced that Bundestag approval needed for all activations of the ESM
  4. Explicit ban on ESM borrowing directly from ECB
  5. The German Government can terminate ESM at any time, as recognised under “customary international law”
  6. In its full ruling, expected in early-2013, the Court will also consider whether the ECB’s bond-buying programme, the OMT, has transferred illegal degrees of sovereignty to the EU-level

THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THE RULING
Makes topping up ESM more difficult: The current lending capacity of the ESM, €500bn, is not nearly enough to take, say, Italy and Spain off the market, meaning that the cap could prove a real obstacle for large-scale Eurozone bailouts down the line. However, the impact of this could be offset by last week’s ECB decision to buy unlimited short-term government debt – via the OMT – which reduces reliance on the ESM. It is also worth considering that a situation where the ESM needed to be topped up, would mean the crisis had significantly worsened once again and an extra layer of parliamentary approval may be the least of the eurozone's worries.
Reinforcing Bundestag veto over ESM activation: The decision also reinforces that any future ESM bailouts will require parliamentary approval, stating that the Bundestag “must individually approve every large-scale federal aid measure on the international or European Union level.” Bundestag approval - either by the full chamber or a special committee - was already needed for activation of the ESM (as with the EFSF). The Court also called for both houses of the German Parliament – Bundestag and Bundesrat – to be kept fully informed of any ESM decisions, something which needs to be enshrined in “international law”.
Will the ESM Treaty need to be rewritten? The Court hinted that the cap on liabilities and the involvement of the Bundestag, will require changes to the ESM structure. If so, there are three ways this could play out:

1) German government protocol: The German government could insert the necessary changes into the German legislation implementing the treaty ahead of their signature into law by the German President Joachim Gauck.
2) Ratification in the Bundestag: German legislation on the ESM could be amended within the Parliament and then re-ratified and signed into law.
3) Rewriting of the ESM treaty: The entire ESM treaty must be altered to ensure that these requirements are laid out in the primary international legislation.

Clearly, (2) or (3) could cause further delays to the ESM coming into force, but are unlikely scenarios. In any case, this is again less of an issue since the ECB OMT can be activated using the EFSF, which will still have €150bn remaining following the Spanish bank bailout.
Ban on the ESM borrowing from the ECB: The Court says that “borrowing by the ESM from the European Central Bank” would be incompatible with EU law (Article 123 TFEU). This is a surprisingly categorical rebuke, especially over an issue of EU rather than German law. But given the ECB OMT a banking licence for the ESM is now less of an issue, so a negative market impact is less likely.
KNOCK-ON EFFECTS OF THE RULING
Focus shifts to ECB – but highlights that accessing the OMT could be difficult
With a firm cap on the ESM, the ECB is now most certainly the only actor with deep enough pockets to put Spain and Italy on life-support – together with the OMT announcement, the ruling has shifted the burden back to the ECB. However, the ruling and the role of the Bundestag highlights that activating the OMT will be challenging, since in order to qualify for ECB bond-buying, a country must first get funding from the ESM – and be subject to conditions. If the Bundestag agrees to activate more bailouts, it will most certainly push for harsher conditions than what debtor countries – most importantly Spain – are willing to accept. In the long-term, under current arrangements of linking ESM and OMT, the latter is also effectively capped and subject to a Bundestag veto.
The Court is likely to consider the ECB’s bond-buying programme next…
The GCC suggested in its press release that the ECB’s OMT will be considered in its final ruling on these complaints. The exact criteria upon which the programme will be assessed is unclear but broadly the Court will determine whether it transfers additional German sovereignty to the European level above and beyond that which the country has committed itself to in the EU Treaties.
Additionally challenges against the ESM could also be launched on similar grounds to the previous legal challenges against the Securities Market Programme (SMP) (inflationary tendencies thereby undermining the right of property by the owner of money, guaranteed by the German Basic Law, and distortion of capital markets). Like with the SMP, it is very unlikely that the GCC would rule against it.
…and expect more court cases
As the crisis piles on pressure for further EU integration – via a banking union and debt pooling – more court cases will inevitably follow. There are plenty of potential legal pitfalls ahead including: direct losses for Germany on loans to Greece, ECB losses on Greek exposure, pooling of risk through bank resolution fund and backdoor Eurobonds through the OMT.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,690
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:14am Sep 13, 2012 11:14am
hehehehe. funny as usual. love the analogy. and the videos...watched all of them actually...i like the way the lions have 3 attack patterns...the ambush, the blitz, and the ...the way they use the wind and night and sound to strategize...etc..

on bernanke....i wont be surprised if his statement is basically " QE without QE"... to serve a balancing scale...the stock market wants QE...the politician.(the american elections...obama) will prefer not...because of the effects of QE: lower usd...higher inflation of consumables, energy, etc.....

i think bernanke will be a balancing art.anyways, we will soon found out in 30 mintues.

de speigel is talking about the serious talk to actually create a centralized euro banking union.




Quoting shomari
Well gentlemen, I thought I would post a few motivational videos for you to watch over the weekend, to prepare you mentally for the slaughter we are going to visit upon the markets in the coming weeks,months, and years. But especially next week
So like in the wild theirare groupings of like animals that rule the plains and jungles and deserts.
Well here in the forex world, it is we, us, who are the alpha predators,and just like in the wild,we analyzee the heard (currency pairs) , analyse til we find the most juicy,or vulnerable one/, THEN STRIKE....
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,691
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:09pm Sep 13, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting Holy Cow
having single currency and no common fiscal policy was a stupid thing to start with as we see Germans footing Greeks' bills now.
makes sense to me.

Quoting Holy Cow
......
Anyway, I think it is better to not get carried away with too much thinking. Just go with a flow. I personally do not read any news of this kind cause I think market takes care of everything.

i personally dont think that been aware of geo-political/economics developments is too much thinking. Saying that it is "too much thinking" is just a rationalization, in my opinion. If you dont want to use fundie, that is fine. In fact, if you read the market wizards book one of the complaints of pure fundamental traders in those books is how technical analysis creates "Analysis to the point of paralysis" or to put it another way: too much thinking. Due to the multiple, potential interpretations of technical setups. I have written this before...technical analysis is much more fuzzy than fundamentals....in fact, analysis to the point of paralysis is more likely to happen with technical analysis given the multiple divergent interpretations.

at the end of the day, the arrogant, condescending pure fundamentalist and the dismissive pure technicians are both just trying to reinforce and feel comfortable in their own universe. at the end of the day: it really boils down to: whatever works for you.

Shomari and I take on the german bundestag decision...shomari beleive that the rally will soon be primed for a fade...(i disagree though...but that isnt the point here.).the point here is that if things develop to further confirm shomari fundamental view, that will prime him to take a short position in the euro pairs when technical patterns show themselves....which goes to simple point:

technical patterns without fundamental backing = merely noise.

yes, there are successful pure technicians in the market wizard books...the fact remains is that their technical trades were aligned with fundamentals.
in fact, a lot of them uses proxies to determine fundamental states if you read the book intelligently.

trading is about high probability setup...one of the reason why trend trading is successful is because when the trend is underway is shows two things: the technicals is now aligned with fundamentals. That is why counter trend trade is very dangerous....unless you are lucky enough to pick the bottom when the herd has caught up to the fundamental reality and things are now re-aligned again.

like i said, trading is about high probability setups...and setups that align technicals with fundamentals(whether the trader is consciously aware of this or not.) are the best. Hence, two things are necessary to achieve this: (1)be aware of fundamentals (2)be aware of fundamentals (3) did i repeat twice already to be aware of fundamentals? yes, i mean it: be aware of fundamentals (4)if your fundamentals analysis is weak, find a way to do a proxy fundamental analysis, that is, find something that mimick or indicate a true fundamental states e.g. trend trading...or heatmap interpretation.... or... correlative index analysis(e.g part 1 and part 2 and part 3). The stock market has a shitload of stuff that are proxy for fundamental states.(in fact, i cant think of a single, "pure" techinician market wizard guy that made millions that doesn't use some form of indicator of fundamental state.)

At the core: trend, heatmap, correlative index are simply a proxy for fundamentals analysis.

It helps in the full understanding and interpretation of trend, heatmap, correlative index, if you actually know the backstory of what you are looking at.

that is my take on this issue.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,692
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:16pm Sep 13, 2012 12:16pm
enough said. nothing much to add. i have said mine here.

Quoting shomari
Until these guys fully integrate,there can only be patchwork half measures to keep the thing together. Either unite already, or forget about it.

Cow though, bro....to much THINKING ?!! You can never think too much.
How do you think "the market", (which happens to be us, TRADERS) make the markets move ? On information my bovine buddy, data, reality. The only way to know the data is to read it.
Not to call you out or anything, but that 500 pip retrace you took on some of the trades you've been in could easily have been (and should have...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,693
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:19pm Sep 13, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting Skynet
........

on bernanke....i wont be surprised if his statement is basically " QE without QE"... to serve a balancing scale...the stock market wants QE...the politician.(the american elections...obama) will prefer not...because of the effects of QE: lower usd...higher inflation of consumables, energy, etc.....

i think bernanke will be a balancing art.anyways, we will soon found out in 30 mintues.

de speigel is talking about the serious talk to actually create a centralized euro banking union.
apparently, it is QE with saying QE....never thought he will be that open ended and bold. i was expecting him to do QE while making it look not like QE..i.e "QE without saying QE". damn! he swung for the fences here!

GOOD NEWS:ALL MY XAG TRADES HAVE RE-ASSERTED THEMSELVES WITH A FUCKING, BLOODY VENGEANCE!! (did i said that i dont have TP on these trades? I really do mean: no fucking TP, no way, no how, no whatever! hehehe.) what can i tell you; man. trading with fundamentals just make fucking sense to me.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,694
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:55pm Sep 13, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting shomari
I wouldn't get into ANYTHING this week. We've got the FOMC decisions and press conferences in a few hours. Don't be surprised to see multiple price spikes etc today. Only a fool would be in the markets today.

Exit all trades, or set tight stops if you're already in something.
Next week the 2nd half of the trading season starts. That's when we begin to pad our accounts again.

But this week, all we can do is wait
i agree with you...but i DID took a long CAD/HKD...which is basically a short USD using CAD without directly doing it through USD/CAD.....i dont want to do the direct short USDXXX or XXXUSD due to the volatility of bernanke...(for the reason you stated above--it is madness given the volatility)...so, i went with a derivative(CAD/HKD)...also, i am already loaded to the brim with XAGs and XAUs....and my first choice were the CHFs, EUROs and GBPs derivative...however, i couldnt find a nice CHF, euro or gbp derivative to short USD with that has the right technical formation.....CAD/HKD is the best candidate....as you can see from the chart the spikes was negligible.
anyways,.i wrote some annotations on the chart...and you can see my entry point within the red circle of the 1st chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-13_13-41_CAD-HKD.jpg Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-13_13-51_OANDA.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-13_13-50_OANDA.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-13_14-03_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 38 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,695
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:17pm Sep 13, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Skynet
personally, i am not sure to what extents they are fucked. basically, i am not as pessimistic as you on this. my reasons are as follows:

but draghi can buy bonds in the open market through the ECB...yes, the german BUNDESTAG put restrictions...with regards to the ESM....but one good point that was made by the german newspaper, de speigel, is that ever since the beginning...the germans has never said NO to any form of financial bailout that...

Yeah, you're right. it's not actually as bad as I first thought. Like I said, th article I was reading from the telegraph needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They tend to be a little dramatic (takes one to know one), and anti euro.
It turns out they can make decisions in the Bundestag still, if they want to increase participation so, not so bad.
And like you so rightly expressed, they'll never let it fail. I should add here that it doesn't mean they won't be fumbling the ball all along the way.

BTW, that was a most comprehensive breakdown Sky, niiiice !
  • #11,696
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:21pm Sep 13, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting Skynet
hehehehe. funny as usual. love the analogy. and the videos...watched all of them actually...i like the way the lions have 3 attack patterns...the ambush, the blitz, and the ...the way they use the wind and night and sound to strategize...etc..

on bernanke....i wont be surprised if his statement is basically " QE without QE"... to serve a balancing scale...the stock market wants QE...the politician.(the american elections...obama) will prefer not...because of the effects of QE: lower usd...higher inflation of consumables, energy, etc.....

i...

I am but a simple man,I try my best...
  • #11,697
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:33pm Sep 13, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting Skynet
makes sense to me.




i personally dont think that been aware of geo-political/economics developments is too much thinking. Saying that it is "too much thinking" is just a rationalization, in my opinion. If you dont want to use fundie, that is fine. In fact, if you read the market wizards book one of the complaints of pure fundamental traders in those books is how technical analysis creates "Analysis to the point of paralysis" or to put it another way: too much thinking. Due to the multiple, potential interpretations of technical setups....

There's the Sky we love......... Droppin' science like a nobel laureate!!! BOOYA!!

Nuff said
  • #11,698
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:01pm Sep 13, 2012 2:01pm
Ahem, not bad. got stoped chf/jpy after being 100+ pips for BE and aud/chf was maximum 4:1 got stopped for 3:1. 3% trade. the rest is doing fine gbp/nzd causes some concerns. too little pips and not as good as eur/nzd. eur/nzd gonna move stop to BE soon. definitely before boarding the plane.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trades.JPG Size: 42 KB
  • #11,699
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:01pm Sep 13, 2012 2:01pm
Guys, Sky pointed it out best, technicals can get you all confused if you don't know the fundamentals, the WHY, of why you are trading a certain pair.
For example when someoe asks me, "Shomari why are you shorting a/j ?" My answer will sound something like.."Because Chinese manufacturing is down due too low U.S. consumer demand."
You see, a seasoned market veteran will understand exactly what I'm saying. A half assed trained trader will not even understand the significance of what I just said. (Hence, if you feel me
on what I just said, consider yourself a REAL trader.)
I mean seriously, you might be able to slide by with trading only from your charts, but unless you know WHY the price is moving the way it is , you're only seeing half the picture.
You see, we already KNOW which way price will go, we just use the charts to tell us when to enter and exit. That's why we are so rarely on the WRONG SIDE of a trade. You only need to fire up your Metatrader to pinpoint exact entries and exits, but before that, you should pretty much ALREADY KNOW which pairs you're going to trade, and in what direction, because you actually KNOW what's really happening in their economy. The REALITY, of what's going on, and trading accordigly, to ther reality, to LIFE!!
You are not trading some CONCEPT or THEORY, you are trading LIFE, REALITY, what is happening in the real world !!!
  • #11,700
  • Edited 2:49pm Sep 13, 2012 2:10pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting Skynet
apparently, it is QE with saying QE....never thought he will be that open ended and bold. i was expecting him to do QE while making it look not like QE..i.e "QE without saying QE". damn! he swung for the fences here!

GOOD NEWS:ALL MY XAG TRADES HAVE RE-ASSERTED THEMSELVES WITH A FUCKING, BLOODY VENGEANCE!! (did i said that i dont have TP on these trades? I really do mean: no fucking TP,...
Like i said I'm not gonna break my plans, no trades this week for me..BUT DAMB I'M JEALOUS !!!! LOL!!
Bernake sure went full montey on us didn't he ? AWESOME!!!!!!! Boys, I believe we have the begiings of some JUUUUUUIICCCYY trends!! HAHAHA!! (you gotta laugh with the evil voice and wringing your hands in evil glee and expectation.)

No TP!!!!? , man, I just hope there's still something left for me next week.
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