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AUD/USD

  • #52,381
  • Sep 13, 2012 7:08am Sep 13, 2012 7:08am
Any last minute guess where this pair is going after FMOC?
  • #52,382
  • Sep 13, 2012 8:18am Sep 13, 2012 8:18am
Quoting Ken A
Any last minute guess where this pair is going after FMOC?
A guess is exactly what it is and mine is still up.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,383
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:18am Sep 13, 2012 10:18am
Hope everyone is doing fine and has anticipated this move.
  • #52,384
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:02am Sep 13, 2012 11:02am
Almost got scared out.. JPlazard gave me some good guidance.. held it.. Now more than 500 pips and growing so far.

Kudos to JPlazard.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,385
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:07am Sep 13, 2012 11:07am
Well, right now it's right under the (Feb 29-high to June 1st-low) .236 Fib retrace line. Apologies for no chart, the line is at about 10555.

Will take a strong close above 10555 as a bullish signal. Great day for bulls in general in any case.
  • #52,386
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:09am Sep 13, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Almost got scared out.. JPlazard gave me some good guidance.. held it.. Now more than 500 pips and growing so far.

Kudos to JPlazard.
What are you talking about? He has been selling I thought he is down by a $ million near 1.06?

When did he say to buy? I've been saying to hold buys until right time.
  • #52,387
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:11am Sep 13, 2012 11:11am
Not a real good day today.. I was wrong and the fed has come in. The only last shot of the AUD going back to 1.04 1.03 is RBA minutes(Monday) but they might reinforce the steady growth rhetoric, and china later next week. Otherwise This trade looks like a fail and I have closed all Futures AUD shorts and Cut spot shorts in Half. Moved the SL up to 1.0650 as i am trading less now per $/tick basis. I will add a dollar short next week because this 'stimulus' is open ended and dollar looks like it could come back down to last years break out zone so that will be a nice short for several months.

Overall AUD is still overheated and I will show why on Friday but like every full timer knows don’t fight the tape cut your losses and reevaluate

Best of luck today everyone.
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  • #52,388
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:13am Sep 13, 2012 11:13am
May or may not be a retrace back to 1.05, but I need to draw some new lines and try to figure out what's next.

Some lines were hit, others still not yet. The only lines are the two top daily lines, which the second top may be getting hit real soon. Still waiting for the current 1H close and 4H close to determine anything.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,389
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:31am Sep 13, 2012 11:31am
Because of what is going on in the ny session will this affect the Asian in anyways later tonight in a positive manner? Or no? I think it will but I'm not sure
  • #52,390
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:33pm Sep 13, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting jplazard
Not a real good day today.. I was wrong and the fed has come in. The only last shot of the AUD going back to 1.04 1.03 is RBA minutes(Monday) but they might reinforce the steady growth rhetoric, and china later next week. Otherwise This trade looks like a fail and I have closed all Futures AUD shorts and Cut spot shorts in Half. Moved the SL up to 1.0650 as i am trading less now per $/tick basis. I will add a dollar short next week because this 'stimulus' is open ended and dollar looks like it could come back down to last years break out zone so...
It takes a lot of balls to announce the crash of Australia and a lot of confidence to heavily invest in shorts on a day like this where buying turned out to be a no brainer and your stop loss an obvious target.
I'm sorry you lost so much money and kudos for popping in and admitting how horribly wrong your calls were, I admire you for that strength and I'm sure you'll pick up the pieces and rethink the strategy for your next trades.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,391
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:39pm Sep 13, 2012 1:39pm
Updated my lines.

On the daily, price is testing two trend lines. The DTL hasn't been broken, and will only broken once a close on the daily. Even then, we have to watch out for Fridays action and see if price doesn't return quickly to close below it again. This rally could very well be a retrace to the 1.0575 level. If not, meaning price continues north, then my next logical target is 1.08. Price could also end up ranging in between 1.05 and 1.0575. Next week, the trend lines will be crossing and this will generate some sort of action. If price breaks south of the current zone, then the crossing between both the bottom DTL and the bottom ULT will provide resistance. (I really should've put a line there.) It all depends on how it closes for the week.

The 4H presents us with two lines to be tested. This zone is directly above the daily zone for about 25 pips. The channels upper line is being tested for a third time, while the bottom line has already been tested for a third time. Price is in the current daily zone, which is, on the 4H, 1.0515 to 1.0575. If price moves south, then the 4H shows us that 1.044 and 1.033 (which is the bottom trend line crossing level from the daily chart) will provide support. However, price has broken through the 4H DTL and has tested it twice since.

On the hourly chart, the recent DTL has been broken, but not tested. We can see a zone 1.0535 to 1.0575, which is the daily zone refined for a second time. If price breaks south of this zone, then I can see 1.045 providing support. (Again, I should've put a line.) This level is the recent DTL and the UTL crossing.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,392
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:06pm Sep 13, 2012 2:06pm
sidhujag


We talk on Skype and I told him that the reaction bar was full of news traders and that longs were going to push through next hourly bar.. Yes I am short and still am but I know reactionary moves from real moves and Pair was thinking of getting out right away. Good thing he didn't

As for my shorts I closed half the position and cancelled the bigger orders before all this happened so i am down about 30K right now I WAS WRONG and with every central bank now in the market it's tough to find a great case for a short.

I will close out all of the position as we come down a little here and there and hopefully Friday EOD we see some profit taking where we come down some more

But yes I don't see the BIG CRASH as imminent as it has been kicked down the road again for a few qtrs
  • #52,393
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:09pm Sep 13, 2012 2:09pm
Here's a little item to keep you amused while waiting for opportunities...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/whist...913-25v8t.html

Cheers

Dane..
  • #52,394
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:12pm Sep 13, 2012 2:12pm
Hey Dane,

Thank you for this I will watch now..
  • #52,395
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:06pm Sep 13, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting jplazard
sidhujag


We talk on Skype and I told him that the reaction bar was full of news traders and that longs were going to push through next hourly bar.. Yes I am short and still am but I know reactionary moves from real moves and Pair was thinking of getting out right away. Good thing he didn't

As for my shorts I closed half the position and cancelled the bigger orders before all this happened so i am down about 30K right now I WAS WRONG and with every central bank now in the market it's...
Maybe you should have posted the same thing here what you told Pair on Skype because I'm pretty sure some of the lurkers who follow this thread but rarely post, took your initial advice and sold this bugger too early. Otherwise what's the point in all this?
Another reason why everybody should trade it's own setups and follow it's own bias.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,396
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:06pm Sep 13, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting jplazard
sidhujag


We talk on Skype and I told him that the reaction bar was full of news traders and that longs were going to push through next hourly bar.. Yes I am short and still am but I know reactionary moves from real moves and Pair was thinking of getting out right away. Good thing he didn't

As for my shorts I closed half the position and cancelled the bigger orders before all this happened so i am down about 30K right now I WAS WRONG and with every central bank now in the market it's tough...
JP,

Hi yes an ANY AUD crash won't start until after some RBA news... because there the big boys will start forecasting rate cuts. Obviously as of right now they might have been pricing it in because if you look at iShares China you can see that there it has been in a downtrend and China is coming down. However AU is still correlated to ES and that relation has taken over to push back up. There is a nice divergence now between AU and China so should be a nice opportunity coming up either buy side on China or sell side on AUD.

It was obvious after the non follow through short squeeze after last minutes that AUD had strength where as before it was falling and making lows every 4h. Now we have to watch out for the event I was talking about although 79.3 on usdx looked pretty strong.. need a day to see if it really has strength to hold... otherwise looking at lows of 2012 to test.
  • #52,397
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:11pm Sep 13, 2012 3:11pm
Quoting stulic
Maybe you should have posted the same thing here what you told Pair on Skype because I'm pretty sure some of the lurkers who follow this thread but rarely post, took your initial advice and sold this bugger too early. Otherwise what's the point in all this?
Another reason why everybody should trade it's own setups and follow it's own bias.

In JPLazard's defense I would say anyone who traded off any views posted here without doing their own research deserve the dismall results they will get from such a random way of trading. Bulls or bears I urge people to only view any ideas here as a idea generation site for them to go away and expand on or reject , themselves. This is a great site for anyone wanting to see both sides of the argument, not to get actual buy and sell signals from (IMHO).

BTW JPLazard, i respect anyone who wants to stick their neck out right or wrong and when wrong to fess up as you did. People who only want to be "right" have lost he game before they even start....
  • #52,398
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:28pm Sep 13, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting stulic
It takes a lot of balls to announce the crash of Australia and a lot of confidence to heavily invest in shorts on a day like this where buying turned out to be a no brainer and your stop loss an obvious target.
I'm sorry you lost so much money and kudos for popping in and admitting how horribly wrong your calls were, I admire you for that strength and I'm sure you'll pick up the pieces and rethink the strategy for your next trades.
  • #52,399
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:29pm Sep 13, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting stulic
Maybe you should have posted the same thing here what you told Pair on Skype because I'm pretty sure some of the lurkers who follow this thread but rarely post, took your initial advice and sold this bugger too early. Otherwise what's the point in all this?
Another reason why everybody should trade it's own setups and follow it's own bias.
Hi Stulic, you know I respect you, so don't take offence.
I feel really sorry for JPLazard and for the loss he has taken. He takes his trades seriously and do his homework before entering a trade. So I'm confident and I wish him to recover quickly.
We can't blame him for the lurkers who took his advice and lost their money. They will never learn that it's better to lose money by following it's own analysis than to make profit by following the advice of a third party.

BTW You were right again. Hats off !!! I was on the sideline because I didn't have the guts to go long.

Take care all.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #52,400
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:36pm Sep 13, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting maximinus
Hi Stulic, you know I respect you, so don't take offence.
I feel really sorry for JPLazard and for the loss he has taken. He takes his trades seriously and do his homework before entering a trade. So I'm confident and I wish him to recover quickly.
We can't blame him for the lurkers who took his advice and lost their money. They will never learn that it's better to lose money by following it's own analysis than to make profit by following the advice of a third party.

BTW You were right again. Hats off !!! I was on the sideline because...
agreed... i know him...he knows his best mm

in simple words, trade your own...
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