Hi Dab,
Reading your post I thought that this Bollinger Band (BB) trading rule might interest you, because it is based on PA returning to its average price.
I have attached a chart to help show what I am looking for (but it is not the best example) and within reason this works on 15M upwards.
I look for a break of the upper or lower BB (...)
Instead of using the classic BB(20), 2, I use TWO 20-period BBs with respectively 2.5 and 1.5 deviations (this for the EURUSD and AUDUSD - haven't tested it thoroughly on other pairs yet).
This works better when the 2.5dev has been pierced and as long as the price keeps breaking through it outwards (which would be equivalent to your "riding tightly the lower or upper band") I assume that there will be a continuation in that direction.
When the price comes back to the inside through the 1.5dev, it will usually (let's say 70/80% of the time) walk all the way through at least the BB median (SMA20). And quite probably as well thereafter, if the median is breached, it will travel all the way towards the opposite 1.5 band at least.
The conservative entry would then be to wait for the candle to close above (upwards) or below (downwards) the 1.5dev BB20 and for the next candle to open also in that zone.
Here's a pic to illustrate, personally I only use this conservative entry on 1-minute charts when there is a 5,3,3 stoch divergence, and a coincident setup on 5-minute charts (for very short-term scalps).
On the higher time-frames, my approach is similar to yours and I usually enter on the next candle after a strong impulsive breach of the 2.5dev, but it also mostly will depend on specific price levels and other elements.
