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Silent Service Method

  • #14,601
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:09am Sep 10, 2012 2:09am
Quoting stewrigh
So, MP would Aussies work for less than $2 day LOL.

http://www.hangthebankers.com/austra...gina-rinehart/
she should be congratulated she didnt say Aussies should work for $2 a day, shes saying the high cost of environement is hurting when compared to our African neighbours willing to compete and work for $2 a day, ie the red and 'green' tape shouldnt be added to hurt our competitiveness... mining tax, carbon tax etc etc..

The whole inherited wealth thing is a furfy, she inherited $75million and turned it into $29 billion (try turning $75 into $29,000) and is the richest woman in the world. Im yet to see the economic argument against what shes saying, all i ever seem to see is oh shes fat and greedy because shes rich (greedy = rich allegedly, of course no-one else is greedy lol).. she has a BA in economics, she speaks the truth when a high minimum wage is hurting the poor and unemployed... anyone hazing on her is basically buying into the tall poppy, class warfare bullshit that progressives and champagne elite love so dearly..
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #14,602
  • Edited 2:41am Sep 10, 2012 2:16am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting mypipbull
Yeah she's a wild woman.....So many stories about her here in Perth.......inherited wealth....that's all I can say.

The problem here is 'the boom' has driven up wages (and most likely personal debt) to unsustainable levels, its another house of cards. Just keep shorting anything with AUD/xxx and all will be good.

Edit: In fact Australia is farming a lot of its engineering design & fabrication etc. to the $2/hour countries and from personal experience the end cost is vastly higher.
the problem with that is the positive interest carry is driving a lot of insto cash into Australia still (80% of govt bonds are foreign owned), and they wont be unloading unless theres a severe correction in the AUD (cant honestly see this without IR going down) or as i allude to there IR coming down... China coming off the boil could lead to this, we are in licorice all sorts with iron ore spot price crashing (look at Fortescue lately as a proxy short China trade - massive shelving of capital projects, staff etc), but China just announced a massive round of infrastructure road to nowhere stimulus, which should kick the Aussie can down the road atleast for a few more months to a couple of years..

basically what im saying is the China short (AUD short) may have a while to go and u could get easily shaken out at these levels before the 'big short' happens.. if your looking for a long term short China macro play without getting whipsawed out its best to look at stocks or other instruments that present that view... short Japanese companies with heavy China exposure (Hugh Hendry - Eclectica Fund has some material on this).. just my couple of cents

also a note on China, its only really economists abroad that believe in the China story, if you listen to commentary of Chinese economists or even party leadership they know their economic situation is unsustainable
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #14,603
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:18am Sep 10, 2012 2:18am
Quoting clockwork71


Yeah....this is the country that is going to be the next superpower and reserve currency.......

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...pples-iphone-5
its always easier to imitate rather than innovate
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #14,604
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:45am Sep 10, 2012 4:45am
Quoting whitegoodman
the problem with that is the positive interest carry is driving a lot of insto cash into Australia.....
All interesting points. It would be foolish of me to be calling an absolute top with the AUD short (which I am not) selling the AUD at the 'moment' is the play for me. Long term who knows.

As for Gina, I do not have an issue with her. However, given the conditions over the last say 15 years, there are many others who have made a fortunes in metals although they did not have a 75mil start

Belittling her because she has strong opinions and carry's a few extra is very tiresome to listen to. This tall poppy attitude appears to be contagious across Australia, must I point to the treatment of the Olympic athletes in London?

The $2 a day business is a load though. The guts of it is they still need 'expensive' specialised labour first to enable the 'cheap' labour to do the work. In the end this cheap labour DOES cost far more.
  • #14,605
  • Sep 10, 2012 8:09am Sep 10, 2012 8:09am
Quoting whitegoodman

also a note on China, its only really economists abroad that believe in the China story, if you listen to commentary of Chinese economists or even party leadership they know their economic situation is unsustainable
BINGO! China is going to be another case of Wall Street herd mentality. Sure, there's a ton of money to be made riding it up, but someday there is going to be a ton of pain when everyone gets out.
  • #14,606
  • Sep 11, 2012 12:29am Sep 11, 2012 12:29am
Ok I'm bored now - wish this thing would make it's bloody mind up.

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  • #14,607
  • Sep 11, 2012 12:45am Sep 11, 2012 12:45am
Quoting stewrigh
Ok I'm bored now - wish this thing would make it's bloody mind up.

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Wonder if the news today/tomorrow will shake it up a bit.
  • #14,608
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:40am Sep 11, 2012 5:40am
Quoting stewrigh
Wonder if the news today/tomorrow will shake it up a bit.
Oh I think the next couple of days will certainly do that - until we focus on whatever is next......which will be a matter of days probably.
  • #14,609
  • Sep 11, 2012 11:48am Sep 11, 2012 11:48am
Quoting clockwork71
Oh I think the next couple of days will certainly do that - until we focus on whatever is next......which will be a matter of days probably.
Yep can you imagine what will happen if the Dutch election gives the 'wrong' result and there is no QE3 and the Germans reject the ESM.
  • #14,610
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:10pm Sep 11, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting Rk33333
EUR/AUD weekly/daily if it breaks below .2250 ish, weekly looks like it could end up a shooting star. Possibly not the best R:R if it stops at .2050 though.

Aussie weekly looks to me like it wants to go up to .0450, to be honest I'm more interested in shorting it from there.
Now the question is... pull the trigger?
  • #14,611
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:16pm Sep 11, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting Venice
Now the question is... pull the trigger?
Yep I'm in, now let's see if I don't get whipsawed by the news excitement this week.
  • #14,612
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:29pm Sep 11, 2012 8:29pm
Chillin @ US v. Jamaica match World Cup qualifier......US finally scores in 55th minute. This after hitting the woodwork three times in the first half.
  • #14,613
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:46pm Sep 11, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting Rk33333
Yep I'm in, now let's see if I don't get whipsawed by the news excitement this week.
haha yep... too much drama for me to play anything to heavy the rest of this week really... lots of momentum to the upside, so it's hard to say. I like to see price turn first before trying to catch a top, so i'll be bullish again on a pullback somewhere in here.. just make sure your risk is set right.
  • #14,614
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:55pm Sep 11, 2012 10:55pm
Quoting Venice
haha yep... too much drama for me to play anything to heavy the rest of this week really... lots of momentum to the upside, so it's hard to say. I like to see price turn first before trying to catch a top, so i'll be bullish again on a pullback somewhere in here.. just make sure your risk is set right.
The biggest possible upset would be if the FED doesn't ease.....if that's the case - Holy Shit things would fall. However, Ben is well-known for giving the markets what they want.
  • #14,615
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:39am Sep 12, 2012 1:39am
Re the German decision(in abt 2 hrs) re the ESM I just read this in the Telegraph.

I actually think they might vote no - Jeez will that shake the Euro tree.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...r-sovereignty/
  • #14,616
  • Sep 12, 2012 4:26am Sep 12, 2012 4:26am
Quoting stewrigh
Re the German decision(in abt 2 hrs) re the ESM I just read this in the Telegraph.

I actually think they might vote no - Jeez will that shake the Euro tree.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...r-sovereignty/
Maybe not - thats why I never trade the news.
  • #14,617
  • Edited 5:02pm Sep 12, 2012 10:21am | Edited 5:02pm
Eye balling the Aussie/Kiwi cross. Keeping on watch for the next few weeks. I imagine the daily wants to let her go down at least one more wave first.
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  • #14,618
  • Sep 12, 2012 4:54pm Sep 12, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting stewrigh
Re the German decision(in abt 2 hrs) re the ESM I just read this in the Telegraph.

I actually think they might vote no - Jeez will that shake the Euro tree.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...r-sovereignty/

They should have, just for the entertainment value of it.
  • #14,619
  • Edited 1:32am Sep 13, 2012 12:57am | Edited 1:32am
Quoting clockwork71
They should have, just for the entertainment value of it.
Yep and today we got the FOMC - any thoughts on what will happen - I hope they do one of the following(you guessed it, I'm short dollar LOL) - this from Kathy Lien(FWIW). I know I 'never trade the news' but I was already short - just tightened the stops.

Kathy shares her vision about possible scenarios:

- Low Rates Pledge Extended to Mid 2015 > Dollar Bearish
- Low Rates Pledge Extended Beyond Mid 2015 > Very Dollar Bearish
- Open Ended QE3 > Very Dollar Bearish
- Limited QE3 > Dollar Bearish but Magnitude to Depend on Size and Length
  • #14,620
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:01am Sep 13, 2012 1:01am
Talking of QE3 - why the hell is it bad for the Dollar but the EU version is good for the Euro?
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