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AUD/USD

  • #52,361
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:58am Sep 12, 2012 10:58am
The 4H EurAud. A second test of the UTL after a breakout. I can see a possible iH&S.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,362
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:56pm Sep 12, 2012 1:56pm
On the futures side sold another 5contracts heading into tomorrow we will see what happens S&P is heavy end of day again so I am thinking if qe does not come out but he gives guidance it wont trade up like it did last time but know knows only a few men in that room.
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  • #52,363
  • Sep 12, 2012 2:20pm Sep 12, 2012 2:20pm
- A/U M15
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  • #52,364
  • Sep 12, 2012 2:34pm Sep 12, 2012 2:34pm
I am also short after the nice pin bar on the 4H.

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__________________
dentiste hongrie
  • #52,365
  • Sep 12, 2012 2:43pm Sep 12, 2012 2:43pm
I think th market has carved me a new arseh0le this week.
  • #52,366
  • Sep 12, 2012 2:58pm Sep 12, 2012 2:58pm
pipage why do you say that?
  • #52,367
  • Sep 12, 2012 3:05pm Sep 12, 2012 3:05pm
My shorts got stopped out, Nevermind. Moving on. This week/ last week has been full of heavy news, all negative on the dollar. Waiting for the Fed meeting to be over and then I will plan my shorts. Fundamentally, Ausssie is definatenitely bearish, this Chinise stimulus package, ECB bond buiyng and QE3 will on be light relief for the AUD/USD. Lesson learnt, when lots of high impact, uncertain news just stay out.

JP can i ask how long youve been trading for? I take it you are full time?
  • #52,368
  • Sep 12, 2012 4:26pm Sep 12, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting Pipage
My shorts got stopped out, Nevermind. Moving on. This week/ last week has been full of heavy news, all negative on the dollar. Waiting for the Fed meeting to be over and then I will plan my shorts. Fundamentally, Ausssie is definatenitely bearish, this Chinise stimulus package, ECB bond buiyng and QE3 will on be light relief for the AUD/USD. Lesson learnt, when lots of high impact, uncertain news just stay out.

JP can i ask how long youve been trading for? I take it you are full time?
So this might be a turning point if you got stopped out.. others probably did too. The pin bar might have been the stops. Although still not good enough for me we should see some kind of retrace on this bullish momentum.

dixy also closed below 80 so sets up a bullish day for aussie.

NZD news had no impact that was the last straw for bears. Lets see what tmrw brings. Statistically favoring bulls still short term.

Gold MM coming up at 1750 which missed yesterday... so one thing is for sure is we will get volatility.

Get out your volatility EA's that will make u some cash.
  • #52,369
  • Edited 5:45pm Sep 12, 2012 5:30pm | Edited 5:45pm
Pipage,



Yes I hear you and we have all been there me last month with Dollar THAT was a tough one to swallow because I didnt recognize the down trend forming. Yes I have been full time since 2008 and in the game to say since 2005 so I know how you feel when the market cycles or a particular viewpoint does not work out.


The best thing you can do honestly is go outside breathe in the air and take a break...A week two three more if you need if you start to feel overwhelmed and anger separate yourself before you get too emotional like I did on the dollar last month.
  • #52,370
  • Sep 12, 2012 5:32pm Sep 12, 2012 5:32pm
long 1.045

target1.06x
Never change your position without a good reason
  • #52,371
  • Sep 12, 2012 5:40pm Sep 12, 2012 5:40pm
The only real thing that will seal the short fate is Fed coming in with more than 800Bil in Stimulus or some alternative plan, Monetary minutes from RBA that signal no issues, upcoming AUD equity earnings/outlooks, and the technical side.

Stop still lies at 1.0630up to 1.0640 on everything so right now not too worried and ben will be the one that peaks my interest tomorrow. I am sitting pretty up on spot because of the much larger short that hit at 1.0499 moving my basis to 1.0456 more than covering the short set yesterday morning but we will see.
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  • #52,372
  • Sep 12, 2012 5:44pm Sep 12, 2012 5:44pm
WHAT can I say I am in love with this chart until we exceed and close above 1.05 area and create a newer HH CLOSE...Ben will come through and it will be a surprise again to most
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  • #52,373
  • Sep 12, 2012 7:56pm Sep 12, 2012 7:56pm
.i thought things would pick up in september, they usually do.....it's so slow and boring. wheres the NFP when you need it.
  • #52,374
  • Sep 12, 2012 8:03pm Sep 12, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting 4rextrader
.i thought things would pick up in september, they usually do.....it's so slow and boring. wheres the NFP when you need it.
Huh? I'll have to disagree. It's just a typical Asian session atm but London and NY last night were anything but boring.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,375
  • Sep 12, 2012 8:35pm Sep 12, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting stulic
Huh? I'll have to disagree. It's just a typical Asian session atm but London and NY last night were anything but boring.
Asian sessions can be busy and volatile sir.....and i was just giving an example to a tragic economic type of news when i said the NFP. The NFP I understand happens during NY session.
  • #52,376
  • Edited 9:40pm Sep 12, 2012 9:10pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting stulic
1.05 short closed @1.0460 +40 pips and added one more long. See if she's got the legs to keep jumping higher ;-)
Closed half in case it's a fake 1.0485 +25, rest is running for free and in case of a clear break of 1.05 before London, will be looking to add more longs at pullbacks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,377
  • Sep 12, 2012 9:27pm Sep 12, 2012 9:27pm
GbpAud 1H, let's see if price closes below what could be the left shoulder. AudUsd is near the same level as it's possible left shoulder. EurAud isn't following suit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,378
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:14pm Sep 12, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
GbpAud 1H, let's see if price closes below what could be the left shoulder. AudUsd is near the same level as it's possible left shoulder. EurAud isn't following suit.
I'm short on this one too sold at TL retest/rejection, fair bit of TL bouncing there but I'm looking for a drop to fibo/TL confluence at 1.5280 and possibly an extension to below 1.5200 tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,379
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:24am Sep 13, 2012 3:24am
No wonder the opposite happened. I stopped out at BE+4. Should be a weird day for trading until Ben comes about ;-)
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,380
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:36am Sep 13, 2012 3:36am
GM,
Some times AJ is a good leading indicators for AU. I post here two graphs I posted in AJ threads with update


In hourly AUD is in the middle of the path 1.0440. We can expect 1.0300 for bears and 1.0578 for bulls.
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
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