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  • #9,421
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:59am Sep 11, 2012 8:59am
Quoting GnarlyPips
But DB, I see a bullish reflection...
What reflection? Where?
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,422
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:14am Sep 11, 2012 9:14am
Quoting DaddyBear
My bullish view is based on the big picture. This view dose not prohibit me from entering short positions based on smaller TFs.
AU is now trying to make decisions of up or down....which way are we going?



like i said 1.043x-1.044x is a strong resistance or support. daily close above or below will bring some light
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,423
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:15am Sep 11, 2012 9:15am
irfandbl i found some twist on your fib thingy by using the 80 or 20 instead of waiting for 50.....will test over the weekend
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #9,424
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:22am Sep 11, 2012 9:22am
Quoting DaddyBear
What reflection? Where?
It's in the chart, right there! Don't tell me you can't see the mirror...
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #9,425
  • Edited 9:39am Sep 11, 2012 9:23am | Edited 9:39am
(BTW, I think I see a W forming at the top ... or was that an M? hmmm ...)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,426
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:36am Sep 11, 2012 9:36am
Quoting irfandbl
But in short term prediction my guess is

down to
1.0353 (1.0357 touched, maybe the first down was done)
1.0347
1.0336

and then up to
1.0411
1.0420
1.0435
1.0451

and down again to
1.0142
1.0041
0.9940
D1 14,3,3 has crossed up level 50 stoch, well technically the current D1 candle hasn't closed yet, but I guess it will close with the stoch line crossing the level 50

so this part of the scenario

Quote
and down again to
1.0142
1.0041
0.9940

should be crossed out for a while or maybe more than a while

will be getting D1 14,3,3 targets in 4,5 hours.

But here's what H4 is showing me

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 13 KB


expecting some retrace/pullback or whatever to the downside (most probably would be driven by H1 downward targets)
  • #9,427
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:40am Sep 11, 2012 9:40am
Quoting gnomoneey
irfandbl i found some twist on your fib thingy by using the 80 or 20 instead of waiting for 50.....will test over the weekend
Using 80 or 20? I could use the crossings of 70 or 30 instead of waiting for 50 too (jumped into a position and calculate the targets later on) but never tried 80/20.

Can't wait to see how you twist it, thanks
  • #9,428
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:45am Sep 11, 2012 9:45am
I found this a while ago, trying to combine it with the StochCandleFib method, something worth to read about I think

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Stoch_25-09-08_update.pdf   149 KB | 265 downloads
  • #9,429
  • Edited 1:43pm Sep 11, 2012 12:10pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting irfandbl
( ... )
expecting some retrace/pullback or whatever to the downside (most probably would be driven by H1 downward targets)
Beware (I am mostly saying this to myself in the first place) of getting so involved with the probable outcome of a particular method, to end up forgetting that the only force that drives the price is that of the market's supply and demand ...
(... now I've also wondered if everything is already set up by anonymous financial computers, as in a digital game ... given the accuracy of some of those methods ...)

Hope it was only a figure of speech.

What I suddenly saw though, is the possibility of ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(last moves leading to a symmetrical triangle, with a break to the downside)
  • #9,430
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:41pm Sep 11, 2012 1:41pm
Here's two versions for another (bullish) view from H4 charts:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 rising wedge.gif Size: 25 KB


an hypothetical rising wedge, that could later on eventually become a channel.

A third option would be the break of the upper trend line of the wedge ...
  • #9,431
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:41pm Sep 11, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My bullish view is based on the big picture. This view dose not prohibit me from entering short positions based on smaller TFs.
I find it surprising that you are short given your post showing the pair breaking the UTL with no retrace and forming new highs.

Based on your Bullish stance your short trade is going to be underwater for a while.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,432
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:09pm Sep 11, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting tunera
I think a good way to differ correction from trends is just look at the speed of the wave, you can see that the downwave (that to me was a correction of the bigger upwave, by the way) was relatively slow than the speed of this upwaves.
The move down was slowly building divergence, (a bit like putting a spring under tension) once this divergence triggered we got a quick release of energy (impulse ways) this is normal when trading divergence.

Quoting tunera
Now, in a hypotetical way, the main trend move in strong and high-speed waves, corrections instead move in slow and low-speed waves.Therefore, chances are that this upmoves are not corrections, but impulsive waves.
I also think they are impulse waves and will trade them short, if I get a trade setup based on my divergence rules

Quoting tunera
That's why i don't really feel to see these upmoves as corrections, of course the dynamic of the market not always care about the hypotetical ways, a correction can become a reverse and a reverse can loose strenght and become a correction, but but but.. that's all!
It does not really matter to me if the market is moving up or down, is in a correction or a trend, I only ever enter a trade(s) if I have a setup, which will give me a strong probability of a successful outcome

Quoting tunera
Also, let's be careful in these days, tomorrow we have the ems court decision and there are rumors of a possible QE announcement in these days, it is not exactly the best time to fight the market.
We should never look to fight the market, we should always be grateful for what it gives us because it owes us nothing. Trading around important news events is very risky especially for short term traders using stops. It is much more sensible to just watch and wait, unless you are an hardened news trader with set rules, for these sudden spikes.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,433
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:24pm Sep 11, 2012 6:24pm
Quoting tunera
the aud have lost a big ground without making any significant retrace during the way, in other words is oversold.
Tunera, you have some good views & obviously more experience than I but I just can't agree with this section of your statement. At the time you posted this the down move had been just over 400 pips (above 1.06 to below 1.02) and there had been a move up to 1.04. I don't see how you can refer to 200+ pips / 50% as not a significant retrace.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #9,434
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:31pm Sep 11, 2012 6:31pm
Quoting doblece
Beware (I am mostly saying this to myself in the first place) of getting so involved with the probable outcome of a particular method, to end up forgetting that the only force that drives the price is that of the market's supply and demand ...
(... now I've also wondered if everything is already set up by anonymous financial computers, as in a digital game ... given the accuracy of some of those methods ...)

Hope it was only a figure of speech.

What I suddenly saw though, is the possibility of ...

Attachment

(last moves leading...
Will do (beware) Mama, SLs would be applied this time for sure
  • #9,435
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:40pm Sep 11, 2012 6:40pm
[quote=Robot Trader;6003762]The move down was slowly building divergence, (a bit like putting a spring under tension) once this divergence triggered we got a quick release of energy (impulse ways) this is normal when trading divergence.

RT, thought Tunera had a good point about speed of the up & down moves but think your view is even better. Made me go back and look at longer term charts and can see some similarities between now and what was happening in March, early April slow move down before quicker move down in May. Doesn't mean it will have the big move down this time but I'm hoping it happens.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #9,436
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:47pm Sep 11, 2012 6:47pm
Quoting irfandbl
Attachment

1.0411
1.0420
1.0436
1.0451

Good night everyone
A/U just touched its 100% D1 5,3,3 stoch target (1.0451)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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D1 14,3,3 targets are available

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1 14,3,3.gif Size: 17 KB


1.0516
1.0562
1.0647
1.0732

If the pair manages to break 1.0516 and 1.0562, then 1.06 and 1.07 would be next IMO

W1 14,3,3 still shows me 1.0716, while the 5,3,3 one has yet to re-cross up level 50 stoch which may still indicate it has some unreached targets down there...

Goodluck everyone, trade safe


P.S. Top of the page, 1st one today
  • #9,437
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:04pm Sep 11, 2012 7:04pm
Well it now looks like we are moving higher, so ideally I would like to see a duplication of the first leg up, to around 1.0565/1.06150, before starting my short attack.

We already have divergence building of the 4H, so if PA cannot push up to this level, I will look for other Bearish conformations.

The higher PA can push the better, I now expect price to at least test 1.04 again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4h chart 12 09 12.jpg Size: 170 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,438
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:08pm Sep 11, 2012 7:08pm
A/U just touched its 100% D1 5,3,3 stoch target (1.0451)

Attachment

D1 14,3,3 targets are available

Attachment

1.0516
1.0562
1.0647
1.0732

If the pair manages to break 1.0516 and 1.0562, then 1.06 and 1.07 would be next IMO

W1 14,3,3 still shows me 1.0716, while the 5,3,3 one has yet to re-cross up level 50 stoch which may still indicate it has some unreached targets down there...

Goodluck everyone, trade safe


Quoting irfandbl
P.S. Top of the page, 1st one today
I was pipped to the post by your post, well done and happy pips
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,439
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:13pm Sep 11, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting dab
RT, thought Tunera had a good point about speed of the up & down moves but think your view is even better. Made me go back and look at longer term charts and can see some similarities between now and what was happening in March, early April slow move down before quicker move down in May. Doesn't mean it will have the big move down this time but I'm hoping it happens.
Did you go back through your charts and find any 4H or above MACD divergence trades that did not come back to the level the divergence started, or did you find they followed my divergence rules over a period of time?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,440
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:21pm Sep 11, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting Robot Trader
I was pipped to the post by your post, well done and happy pips
I was lucky that I was somewhat 15 minutes earlier than your post.
Next page's top would be yours
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