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AUD/USD

  • #52,301
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:07pm Sep 11, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting jplazard
Great points and I DID come off like a douche for that I will tone down. I agree the better short is getting in after the cuts but when cuts were discussed in Mid August we saw much lower levels on just talk. Now this could be a starting point for everything risk related up because now all major central banks are essentially in the picture but people have to figure that the Fed is going to come in before elections which I personally don't think will happen and China stimulus is put to use that sustains jobs and growth longer than 2 qtrs and not...
Nope i'm actually a macro bear on AUD for the next 3-5 years.. but the chance to sell a top hasn't come yet... its too expensive. Waiting for capitulation event followed by interest rate drop. That is my signal.
  • #52,302
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:17pm Sep 11, 2012 5:17pm
Update on the Crosses on various TFs
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  • #52,303
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:25pm Sep 11, 2012 5:25pm
hi jp, do you still sure that it will be big short coming?

just curios, you said that many big news are coming to affect aud, didn't you?
  • #52,304
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:35pm Sep 11, 2012 5:35pm
I did..

China Stimulus we don't know yet how this will be put to work.
QE3 not likely on Thursday or before the Elections
Iron ore is trading better this week but still well below levels of ease for RBA and the Rate.

HAHAHA i called and registered for this event to get a better perspective on Australia's mining side for my shorts. The lady asked what company do you represent? I said 'Short selling" lol If anyone else goes to this event let me know I will buy drinks.

http://www.minesandmoney.com/australia/
  • #52,305
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:38pm Sep 11, 2012 5:38pm
PSDP,

here are the levels I am entering in on and I am short from this mornings topping area...Shorting on the way up and then on the way down

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post6003329
  • #52,306
  • Edited 7:10pm Sep 11, 2012 6:51pm | Edited 7:10pm
to jp

so you are waiting for 78.6% retracement?

how do you get that?

just want to ask jp, I know 23.6 38.2 50 61.8

are 78.6 a golden ratio too??

pardon me if that's question is so cheap
  • #52,307
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:00pm Sep 11, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting jplazard
I did..

China Stimulus we don't know yet how this will be put to work.
QE3 not likely on Thursday or before the Elections
Iron ore is trading better this week but still well below levels of ease for RBA and the Rate.

HAHAHA i called and registered for this event to get a better perspective on Australia's mining side for my shorts. The lady asked what company do you represent? I said 'Short selling" lol If anyone else goes to this event let me know I will buy drinks.

http://www.minesandmoney.com/australia/
lol u know they ask that so they can print a tag with ur company name and personal name for networking purposes. Ppl will see u as from short selling lol
  • #52,308
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:18pm Sep 11, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting jplazard
Great points and I DID come off like a douche for that I will tone down. I agree the better short is getting in after the cuts but when cuts were discussed in Mid August we saw much lower levels on just talk. Now this could be a starting point for everything risk related up because now all major central banks are essentially in the picture but people have to figure that the Fed is going to come in before elections which I personally don't think will happen and China stimulus is put to use that sustains jobs and growth longer than 2 qtrs and not...
I wouldn't compare Australia with Ireland when talking about housing. Australia has a chronic housing shortage and in parts it's deliberately managed to keep values growing. Also a steady population growth rate between 1-2% annually needs to be considered and immigration can always be cranked up as a tool for inducing housing demand, compared to Ireland that has suffered under a steep decline in growth and an exodus of young people since pre-GFC years.

I don't know, I've been hearing about a real estate market crash in Australia ever since I can think but as soon prices start to fall fresh capital hits the market and it picks up again.
The whole economy is way too dependent on the housing market and it's nothing like Ireland or even like Canada and the US, people's pensions are heavily invested through superannuation funds and the likes.
Then again who knows...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,309
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:29pm Sep 11, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting sidhujag
aud is startig to outperform gold and eur this is a strong long
Interesting observations. Did you also notice Gold and Silver didn't make new highs in this rally? Trying to understand what is going on lol.
  • #52,310
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:37pm Sep 11, 2012 7:37pm
I am hoping they put my tag as

SHORT SELLER lol
  • #52,311
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:42pm Sep 11, 2012 7:42pm
Stulic,

I agree the housing call is getting old and people have been wrong from pre 2008 I am looking more to the front lines of events to occur before housing is even affected..
  • #52,312
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:43pm Sep 11, 2012 7:43pm
http://www.wcsrussia.org/Portals/32/...1)_reduced.JPG
  • #52,313
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:46pm Sep 11, 2012 7:46pm
Great to see the experienced Jplazard, sidhujag & stulic sharing their views respectfully & that their having different views can help people like me with less experience form a more even view. Keep up the great discussion & sharing on this thread!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,314
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:15pm Sep 11, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting dab
Great to see the experienced Jplazard, sidhujag & stulic sharing their views respectfully & that their having different views can help people like me with less experience form a more even view. Keep up the great discussion & sharing on this thread!

I second that.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,315
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:26pm Sep 11, 2012 8:26pm
looking to short AUDUSD too! but i guess most probably is next week? this week is still quite bullish..
  • #52,316
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:46pm Sep 11, 2012 8:46pm
psdp,

Check it YTD Hi Low and the recent Hi to the current Low sell off..

The ABC i made matches up with 786% channel perfectly this is my Heavy sell zone.. The concern I will have is if we surpass 1.0625
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #52,317
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:12pm Sep 11, 2012 9:12pm
Guess this gives another boost to AUD Housing Starts q/q 4.6%
  • #52,318
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:17pm Sep 11, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting Ken A
Guess this gives another boost to AUD Housing Starts q/q 4.6%
These are usually very volatile and low impact numbers, seems today bulls will use anything to push higher. Price also affected by crosses EURAUD and GBPAUD sold off in the need of a healthy correction after a multi-week bull run.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,319
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:21pm Sep 11, 2012 9:21pm
April 27 high 1.0473 to the pip.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #52,320
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:22pm Sep 11, 2012 9:22pm
Quoting stulic
These are usually very volatile and low impact numbers, seems today bulls will use anything to push higher. Price also affected by crosses EURAUD and GBPAUD sold off in the need of a healthy correction after a multi-week bull run.
I think more of the USD dumping in fear of Easing. Take a look at USDX is breaking the LTL.
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