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  • #32,101
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:29pm Sep 11, 2012 2:29pm
http://mail.aol.com/36962-112/aol-6/...wMail&partId=3
This is exactly the same look you get from your friends if you tell them you plan to vote for Obama.
The Chonchy
  • #32,102
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:31pm Sep 11, 2012 2:31pm
http://mail.aol.com/36962-112/aol-6/...dMail&partId=1

Inserted Video
The Chonchy
  • #32,103
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:32pm Sep 11, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting Forexcube
Do you think that terrorrism has nothing to do with the fraudulent european & US Politics? Do you think that terrorism people like to make aggressive attacks ? I don't think so. All they have also families and a country...We don't have the right to take away their commodities while we make contracts only with the imperious political caste without demanding the population in their countries.
If you make meditation you have also to think for these aggressive people and their families & dependents without making any victim-offender mediation in the...
......I'm a Dr. Ron Paul suporer imagine that......
The Chonchy
  • #32,104
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:40pm Sep 11, 2012 2:40pm
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/767611/thu...Y-large570.jpg

........And you thought everything was fine, ah

In place of the U.S. flag, the protesters tried to raise a black flag with the words "There is no God but Allah and Mohammad is his messenger",

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...6pLid%3D203962
The Chonchy
  • #32,105
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:59pm Sep 11, 2012 2:59pm
Hi All,

I'm enjoying the greater contribution to the thread, even if work and a little private project is forcing me to be absent from conversation.

I agree with those that have commented upon a wait and see strategy for the Euro pending the German announcement tomorrow. My own feeling is that statement will not be allowed that will cause a drop off the cliff. Famous last words... yeah, I know.

Four daily charts submitted show that Cable, UC and FXCM Dollar index could go quite some way before hitting any major fibs as projected on their respective charts. EU, however, is a little closer to that 23.6 FE, and so if things go the way that I predict based on the other three charts - with their obvious targets - EU may simply cut through the 1.30 level on its way to, oh, 1.31/32 levels.

It will be interesting to see, and yes, I’m still long Cable, but not seen an opportunity to add... based on a daily chart.

Hope all are in the green come the end of the week.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #32,106
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:28pm Sep 11, 2012 3:28pm
Just thought I'd pop in and throw up a chart accompanied by some analysis for a pair I'm heavily focused on in approach of the ECB and Fed meetings. Included in the chart here is a lifetime fib( H/L .8225-1.6037), which certainly highlights very strong and resistance points as you can see. The pair is currently approaching the 38 fib level at 1.3053, which acted as a good support in the first half of the year until it was broken, so I would have to assume that this level will be the ultimate resistance for now. We are also approaching two very old(multi-decade) trendlines that date back to the 7/01, 2/02, that have acted as a support in the past, but now that the pair is below them I would have to assume that they will be a good resistance point for bears for a reference. In regards to moving averages, the pair has just popped above the 200dma(yellow line) and it appears to be seeking those old trendlines. So as we can see, EURUSD has plenty of resistance ahead, however I think that the ultimate fate for the bears lies in this weeks decision with the Fed.

If they choose to provide additional easing accommodations, although an article by Zerohedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market...billion-new-qe) states that the market has already priced in 850bn in asset purchases, I still think the pair would rally hard on any type of easing and I would look to short at higher levels as indicated by the blue trendline which comes in a little closer to 3250. Any type of sidestep by the Fed, i.e. doing absolutely nothing at all, we would see a significant drop in risk correlated assets and we would have to assume the same being said for the high correlation of EURUSD to SP500. I find it very hard to believe that the Fed would even consider more easing at when asset prices such as SP500 and crude oil are at multi-year highs. It is important to note that the effects of additional easing are becoming less and less effective in the short term. The Fed as already made it very clear that they can only do so much and in my opinion, their toolbox is nearly exhausted.

How am I trading this setup? I am looking to take an initial short position with the underlying assumption that the Fed does nothing or less than market expectations, near 1.2930 with a stop above 3053, risking 0.5%. If the Fed does in fact by chance choose to ease in size, I would look to short closer 3250.
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  • #32,107
  • Edited 4:31pm Sep 11, 2012 3:37pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting chonchy
The yellow arrow's are places were price have being in trouble crossing up and down also...........


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-P02JmJfss

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuinaIm-kd4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVWti4V_Yrk
Very interesting videos Chonchy, I was particularly interested in the 2nd one obviously.

I had a thought shock, horror I know.

The predictions are biblical, (not that that necessarily makes them correct as many know the biblical prophesy on the micro chip implant), but it got me thinking.
If they are going to make cash obsolete, why does it matter how much they print?
Why does it matter what it costs the public/serfs/slaves to save Europe and America? If they don't give a crap about us?

Creating more debt, and destroying currency value may be the perfect "EXCUSE" for the 1 world order/currency/chip etc.
Their argument might go something like this: (We obviously need a single united community to get us out of this mess we are in and more importantly, to ensure it never happens again)

After spending a lot of time following money and markets and uncommon wisdom, I got a certain impression.

QE doesn't work in the long run, it just keeps things on life support.
If the chip and one world order thing run by banks plays out, they need the banking system to be operational (ie. not collapsed).

I guess my ultimate question is:
What is stopping them from simply keeping the whole financial system on life support until 1 world order is achieved regardless of the cost.

If the banking system collapses under enormous sovereign and institutional debt, how can they use this system to control the world?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #32,108
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:57pm Sep 11, 2012 3:57pm
I'm off to follow I'll be Back down under...
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #32,109
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:14pm Sep 11, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting 45Condor
I'm off to follow I'll be Back down under...
Oh man, my favourite movie (or one of them).
It's a shame people have to get older, he was quite an actor back then.
EPIC STUFF!!!!

It kind of got a little weird after that though
Attached Image
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #32,110
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:28pm Sep 11, 2012 4:28pm
A bullish close today, and technically the 38.2 fib would be my next level after the TL break, bullish divergences and completed retest of resistance turned support at 2745.

But then there's the big news...
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  • #32,111
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:38pm Sep 11, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hi All,

I'm enjoying the greater contribution to the thread, even if work and a little private project is forcing me to be absent from conversation.

I agree with those that have commented upon a wait and see strategy for the Euro pending the German announcement tomorrow. My own feeling is that statement will not be allowed that will cause a drop off the cliff. Famous last words... yeah, I know.

Four daily charts submitted show that Cable, UC and FXCM Dollar index could go quite some way before hitting any major fibs as projected on their...
Nice charts bro myself i also think the germans will back up it also my believe is that europe is getting closer to a fiscal integration they working hard on it in the background. many will maybe argue with this and say the eu will collapse but the project has costed to much money so they will do what it cost to save it. So i am on the other side still and think the eu will survive at the end.
  • #32,112
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:41pm Sep 11, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting mfoste1
Just thought I'd pop in and throw up a chart accompanied by some analysis for a pair I'm heavily focused on in approach of the ECB and Fed meetings. Included in the chart here is a lifetime fib( H/L .8225-1.6037), which certainly highlights very strong and resistance points as you can see. The pair is currently approaching the 38 fib level at 1.3053, which acted as a good support in the first half of the year until it was broken, so I would have to assume that this level will be the ultimate resistance for now. We are also approaching two very old(multi-decade)...
Looks reasonble trade if they dont so qe for me it is jsut wait and see now i am just buying with the speculators and if they dont do it then take all profit. mainly in aud and kiwi.. If they do qe i think markets will go higher instead they say most is priced in i think markets will go higher aslong the programe duration pomo I think it is a pretty good no brainer if you know how to manage risk and ride some nice trends.

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  • #32,113
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:56pm Sep 11, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting mfoste1
Just thought I'd pop in and throw up a chart accompanied by some analysis for a pair I'm heavily focused on in approach of the ECB and Fed meetings. Included in the chart here is a lifetime fib( H/L .8225-1.6037), which certainly highlights very strong and resistance points as you can see. The pair is currently approaching the 38 fib level at 1.3053, which acted as a good support in the first half of the year until it was broken, so I would have to assume that this level will be the ultimate resistance for now. We are also approaching two very old(multi-decade)...
hi,

for what it is worth i follow this analyst pretty closely and have had some real nice trades off Tichir's work, especially the Spanish and Italian equity indexes, both long and short, but most recently long (flat across everything as of late Friday PM until the FED)

the full article can be found here;
http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/2012...bernanke-call/

note the FED already owning 40% of treasuries in the 5 to 10 yr range

excerpt - "Tichir' thoughts on possible mkt reactions

 

  1. Extended ZIRP – It would not surprise me to see the low rates language softened even further, but who cares. Ben has made it perfectly clear he will keep rates low until the economy is better or signs of real inflation hit. He will raise rates if conditions ever warrant. This language is just pabulum for the markets in an era of Fed transparency. Don’t expect any lasting rally on this.
  2. More Treasury QE – It is possible but highly unlikely. The Fed already owns almost 40% of treasuries in the 5 to 10 year range. Even Ben is unlikely to push that too much further. On top of that, the 10 year has had an average yield of 1.60% since June 1st, so Fed intervention is unlikely to do too much, and the effects of low yield haven’t been obvious. If we get it, expect a pretty strong rally as the market will be looking at the move in late 2010 for guidance on the impact.
  3. Mortgage Twist – This seems more realistic. It isn’t adding much to the size of the balance sheet, and by focusing on mortgages, it makes it harder to attack politically. This will likely help bank stocks and that is about it. Without true printing, there is little evidence stocks as a whole can be pushed higher. We can argue back and forth on the effectiveness of operation twist, and I will be left to believe that it did little for the market, and the move in stocks has far more to do with LTRO and ECB policies than operation twist. It is unlikely to lead to new loan creation, but will help banks deleverage and book a profit. Funds that loaded up on mortgages ahead of this, should also do well, but the effect on the overall market and economy will be “transitory” at best.
  4. New Loan Targeting – More complex would be a program that targets new loans. By all accounts, there are a number of areas of the economy that cannot get money, and certainly not at reasonable rates. Many individuals struggle to get new mortgages, small commercial and residential real estate projects have difficulty getting money, small business continue to find it hard to get loans, and middle market lending is thriving at private equity firms since those companies cannot get it from banks. This will be complex enough, and likely small enough initially as details get worked out that the markets will give a half hearted effort to go higher, but as likely to fade as anything. In the end, I think this approach would have the most likelihood of actually impacting the economy over the longer term.


Tichir also points out the Bull Dream here (and, the Bear Path);

http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/


"The best case for the bulls seems to be

 

  1. Rajoy strikes a reasonable deal this week
  2. China ratchets up its stimulus effort
  3. German courts give the all-clear sign and hint that banking license would be okay
  4. Apple blows away expectations on new products and the I-phone launch
  5. Fed embarks on biggest balance sheet expansion to date including more assets than before

I (Tichir) don’t expect any of the above to happen, let alone all of them, but these are possible outcomes, so have to be fully aware of them"

___________

  • #32,114
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:58pm Sep 11, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting roro53
hi,

for what it is worth i follow this analyst pretty closely and have had some real nice trades off Tichir's work, especially the Spanish and Italian equity indexes, both long and short, but most recently long (flat across everything as of late Friday PM until the FED)

the full article can be found here;
http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/2012...bernanke-call/

note the FED already owning 40% of treasuries in the 5 to 10 yr range

excerpt - "Tichir' thoughts on possible mkt reactions

[list][*][b]Extended...
True apple also tommorow
  • #32,115
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:06pm Sep 11, 2012 5:06pm
Not sure if there are enough pictures of tractors just recently:

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Gone to a better place
  • #32,116
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:12pm Sep 11, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting smikester
Not sure if there are enough pictures of tractors just recently:

Attachment
Being a farmers son, I am TOTALLY lost for words
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #32,117
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:28pm Sep 11, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting N2FX
If it pushes higher, I am expecting 1.2871 area for next range period.

Key word "if."

I hope everyone makes some good money today.

See you in Asia session.

N2
I just took a look at EU while at work and the area I had marked hit right on, only if I had been trading. Well somebody please tell me you have made some
Money today. I will chat more when I get home.
  • #32,118
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:40pm Sep 11, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting ingmarforex
True apple also tommorow
yea, and the NAS100 is lower from Friday while the Dow and SP made it back to highs

???.....maybe Apple is overdue. if Apple under performs as Tichir expects he also thinks it will drag other US indicies down along with it
  • #32,119
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:43pm Sep 11, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting smikester
Not sure if there are enough pictures of tractors just recently:

Attachment
smikester...is that a tractor or a U Haul?
  • #32,120
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:45pm Sep 11, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting roro53
yea, and the NAS100 is lower from Friday while the Dow and SP made it back to highs

???.....maybe Apple is overdue. if Apple under performs as Tichir expects he also thinks it will drag other US indicies down along with it
Dont know bro trade my own shit will see tommorow maybe he is right or not lol. You short equities us?
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