AUD/USD

at 1.12 do you know how hard it will be for Exports and Retial side they will be so screwed just like Britian was in the ERM....

QE3.. not happening for awhile even if it does people think the fed can do the same amount in QE1 if people review their portfolios they have less than 800B of long dated treas to sell to the market so those thinking 1,,,2...3..4.. TRILLION are just kidding themselves.

China... They have release a quarter of the stimulus last week for road, construction commercial just like their MASSIVE stimulus in 2008 it will fizzle simply because they are putting it to work in the wrong sectors...they keep builiding ghost towns and the only reason the developers are not selling is because of SPV's loans that are off the books.

I will post on Friday an extensive report on this and more for the Australian economy but the more IRon ore stays at these levels with coal and the AUD stays at current levels your going to see unease from the RBA and more importantly from the Corps who will delay pojects and start layoffs..causing a domino effect

Agreed. The hype should live on for awhile before reality sets in.

Only nabbed 30 pips from the bull run. Shouldn't be scared to make money!

1.051? If not, then 1.046? I cleaned my hourly chart from last week, so there's more possible level but I'll have to go back and look.

Alright test time here

aud is startig to outperform gold and eur this is a strong long

Remember what starts and ends trends... look on the calendar... the hint is to read between the lines. If news starts a trend then only news will end it... random stop hunts inbetween do not change trends. Hopefully you can derive the direction from these few statements.

To the poster above me your basing this 'strong long' on less than 3 days of observance of performance.. I would wait for a weekly close of out performance to even consider this as an argument for a long. if you go out further than 5Days AUD/USD is getting crushed by gold performance and EUR/USD on a perecentage gain basis not current performance YTD.

YTD of course AUD/USD is beating EUR/USD for obvious reasons but the true correlation people nned to watch is not Gold to AUD/USD as this is not correlated at this time directly, but look at EUR/AUD DOLLAR Iron Ore there you will see a correlation and a strong one..

this is my own opinion and it could very well be a turn or not but I never base my calls on a few days worth of data.

disregard the first chart it was added by misstake******

Looking forward to the paper JP.
Im waiting for the Aussie to get hammered.
Would you say todays bull run was due to the potential dowgrade of US by Moodys,

All will be revealed in price

We are def at a major area though as im sure everyone can agree on

the key now is patience and let price show us the way... if we miss a few pips allowing the trade to trigger... well, better safe than sorry

JP

Read my other posts on this thread before this last one. I called the strength after the news... you can see it in the 5min PA which way SM is moving. for now its bullish until its not. THe fact that its outperforming now is irrelevent and really just solidifies that its picking up strength... it may or may not outperform but the fact that it is bullish remains. It may be a correction may not be... that is whereyou gamble.

Besides the shorts I put on today if we crack higher here I will be waiting to take the other side
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6002282

I think a long off 280 might not be bad... then a spike during news might take it to another level. An M is in the creation... for me thats bullish..

Price closed above the line on the 4H, and is currently fighting with two lines, again. I can see a possible tiny little flag showing up in the next couple candles. Price closing above the DTL will certainly catch my attention.

I have a feeling the USDX can go down to 79, but I can't get any good charts where I can look through different time frames...

Jp, I've had my eye on that 1.05~ level for a while now. Nice to see I'm not alone!

4H AU

81 broke and that was it... 81 was defended... and 80 broke easily... that was my line in the sand.. now a waterfall wouldn't surprise me. Take out all weak longs before an UP move.

no one is arguing that AUD/USD is bullish these last several days but to say that this is a long signal when it has NOT outperformed any metals for the last 10days is crazy. So far yes I will agree that their is a minor shift with AUD/ and metals on coefficient reading but it is no where NEAR 1

As for your assertion on A gamble call how do you figure. I am always stating facts, I am not one of these guys that is intentionally vague or draws pretty pictures so that if I am wrong I can justify it. If I am wrong here on this call I will lose over a mil but If I am right in what I have shown people here they will know THAT MARKETS CAN BE PREDICTED AHEAD OF TIME.. Ask Ray Dalio how he is able to make so much money for Bridgewater he will say the same I am telling you and others here with respect that markets are easy to trade most of the time when you know what your doing


AUD/USD is bullish compared to GOLD EUR/USD these last 3 days but that is no reason to think this is a long call bias I don't know about you but I need more than just this to justify a position.

Now I respect your opinion and agree with you on some points but dont say I gamble, everything I do is calculated and my background is vast so I am not retail and have not been in that space since i was 17.

I was generalizing, to know if it is a correction or not you may use your TA to determine the hit off the trend line is the definition of your correction ending but to me I look at reaction of what SM did during news (news is what moves the market)... if that TL was in the way during some news today then I would see SM stepping in and selling... usually retailers don't get a chance to get in to the tops/bottoms, if they do... they will see a better price or get stopped out before it moves in their direction.

Look at what happened a few days ago... news was RED... ppl here were shorting yet it went up... followed through up with no retrace... meaning shorts are trapped... now next definition of trend completing is when you see capitulation... You shoudl see a large spike within a short time period to know that it happened, after that large sell orders will take it down before you get a chance to (usually you wait for the second head to form for R/R purposes). To me that hasn't happened. It's been going up with the market (USD looking for a big buyer)... he hasn't appeared and AUD is on a nice short squeeze... so I'm expecting further up until one of those happens (hence why I say news will start/end most trends). TA will take you so far, but FA+TA is where you complete the picture.

If you want to justify the position you can look at the large TF and see it is bullish not bearish. The last dip was because of AUD officials complaining it was too high, and even though the gov't said they won't intervene it still fell. It may have been negative China news... which has turned slightly green. So macro POV it is still bullish (check interest rates)... if you really want to justify a position you would act WHEN AUD INTEREST RATES FALL. You will have plenty of chances to get in.. not like it falls in a straight line.

As of now it is hard to hold long term shorts because of the CODB

Great points and I DID come off like a douche for that I will tone down. I agree the better short is getting in after the cuts but when cuts were discussed in Mid August we saw much lower levels on just talk. Now this could be a starting point for everything risk related up because now all major central banks are essentially in the picture but people have to figure that the Fed is going to come in before elections which I personally don't think will happen and China stimulus is put to use that sustains jobs and growth longer than 2 qtrs and not putting it in the same sectors as ALWAYS...

Second Iron Ore and Coal need to be at higher levels or AUD/USD needs to adjust lower to offset (will be discussed this friday) for the RBA to keep rates on hold and for Corps to be able to expand and restart old projects. Otherwise layoffs will follow, asset sales from BHP and others will follow, Government tax receipts will be less form corps> Budget deficit rises ever more>Gov won't be in surplus like promised end of year>they delay new program spending> You start to see Construction fall off a cliff> Retail get hit on their pocket books> Rates cut>Foreign capital is slower>rate cut again> Foreign capital goes back to EUORPE EN MASSE> Housing falls off the cliff and you have a Ireland type housing crash that started in 1990's finally busting in 2008...

This is all general and I will talk more about what we could see on the domino effect in the friday report but You are a bull long term or at least for the moment and I am a Bear long term or at least for the moment so we are at a disagreement lol.. We will have to let the market decide I hope we can agree on this

PS i am not in the Steve keen camp by the way he has been incorrect since 2008 on the Australian housing bubble I see other events occurring before this is going to explode in AUSTRALIA