AUD/USD

trend line break down, will it continue?

if successfully passed its opening price will most likely cover its gap and tend to reach @ 10384 - 0394

So, far a slow week. Already Tuesday and not a lot of action. I think everyone is holding their breath for the German courts and then Ben Bernanke on Thursday. Should be interesting. I think all of this bond buying while the some of the economies in the Euro zone aren't doing so great doesn't really fix the long term problem. In my view it only pays off the money that those governments borrowed. And Since the people as a whole aren't generating the economic numbers for stability how long will this bandaide bull market last?

With the Fed, that is very political. For Ben Bernanke, I feel it is a situation if dammed if he does and dammed if he doesn't. If he does 3rd QE, it will effect the re-election campaign for the person who hired him... Obama. If Obama loses because of the economy needing 3rd QE showing Americans that he hasn't helped to improve the economy then he might not see a 2nd term and Obama's opponent Mitt Romney has already stated that he will get rid of Ben Bernanke if he is elected. So, if Bermanke wants to keep his job he better make Obama look good. lol If Bernanke does do 3rd QE, then he puts his job at risk, but maybe QE can have some mild effect in helping things out in the U.S. but truth be told all of the stimulus going on around the world isn't really for the person working a 9 to 5 job for someone.. It is all about government trying to pay back their debt that they created from over spending.

Again... this is only my viewpoint.

Hi All, I am selling the AUD here but using a vanilla call option for one week , strike 1.0400 as my stop loss (too whippy to have a hard stop in the spot market). I am hoping the attached channel is in force and if not I am hedged by my call option. BTW the COT posted earlier by someone are only from the 4th Sep remember. (They announce them on Fridays but even those numbers are only for the previous Tuesday). I think the non-reporting market as a universe is long and the dissappointments could be to the downside. Good luck!

Hello All,

UPDATE: Short taken on Friday NY open is still on AUD I did close out S&P L. Currently I am short 3contracts on AUD as I stated last Friday I am looking for us to come back down a bit from the Thursday rally . This could be the first probe short before the great fall but I only really have expectations of us coming back down to 1.02825 Levels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Now on to other matters. I have written a report on the Australian economy this last week that I will say was one of the most eye opening experiences I have ever had when it comes to approaching a macro thesis and as I looked at my bookshelf I saw one of the greatest raiders and read his book again. After going over his ‘Real Time Experiment’ I came away with two takeaways:
1. The Greatest trades ever made are not scalping day in day out but developing a macro thesis where all the dominos have formed and you are seeing with great clarity where and how they will start to fall. While everyone else is losing their heads, it is important to keep yours (MA)
2. There is a crash coming for Australia and it has been culminating for almost two decades. I will say that the RBA will act to stimulate once this has happened but NOT BEFORE as no central bank can prevent what has been set in motion by so many for so long….
I enjoy posting charts and analysis of short term AUD moves and reading others thoughts But there are several things I have never posted or have personally seen from this thread or the Cartoon thread so I am going to start my own ‘REAL TIME EXPERIEMENT’. What it will consist of is the Numbers behind Australia, The Big Four, the mining sector, China, and outright fraud from the Australian government/Banking sector on how their lending practices and Loan to value ratio are shockingly similar to the US before our crash.
I will start a Journal at the end of the week to document my thesis and trades for AUD/USD, /6A, AUD equities, Interest rates and Bonds. These last three weeks in the accumulative Short I took back in early August I pulled a nice profit But based on what I am seeing and what other former colleagues have told me I am breaking my 2% per trade rule and will get ready for what I see as a crash that everyone thinks is not going to happen (just like Ireland) and pull $0000000’s through various outright shorts and Option plays.

As soon as I start the journal I will continue to post in AUD/USD from time to time and provide charts here and there but the majority of my focus will shift towards the Journal side. I encourage those who are looking at the longer picture of AUD to stop by and contribute their thoughts as well.

(PS almost done with the paper as there were some contributions at the end and it will be posted in the new Journal at the end of the week)

Hi JP, I for one look forward to reading your thoughts in journal (assume you will let us know the link) and contributing if I can

Dab thank you and I will link for sure.


Charts below lay out the crash scenario for when the first domino drops on rate cuts to the dominos to follow...

1st chart....Short from Friday. level I am watching to reavalue on closing or pause.

2nd Chart....Crash chart if this is the B wave and we trade lower based off therate cuts and where the targets are for the bear raid.


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Interesting.

If you're right about the crash of the Aussie I'll be more then happy to start loading shorts from 1.12 and above

I am closing the Friday short not liking the chart below will reload at the levels mentioned in the earlier post or when this upper channel hits..

reason why I don't like the short anymore I will sit on my hands and wait for the post above to to re enter.

Hmm... Up? No obvious signs for me..

1H

Gnarly,

Like the chart and Agree LH's LLs and this looks like a mistake on my part I normally don't trade during this time but for some reason I did it most likely will bite me in the A** we will see

Thanks.

I tried doing a couple small trades today, and only one worked out. I figured the momentum from last week wouldn't last, but I like doing things I know I shouldn't.

Hi JP, have just had a quick look at Thinkorswim as have seen you and chiknthief talk about options and I wish to learn more. Is the education only available once you have started an account? I ask as I would ideally get to know a bit more about options before opening an account.....

Gnarly your good I will eat my words here and I broke my Number 1 rule dont trade this session and wait for London.. My short was closed out at a no reason but some figment of a triangle that may or may not exist..

Your short if you are short is good

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/disp...layFormat=hide

Dab check it they have everything you need in education

Thanks JP, found the kind of stuff I'm after in Support menu, Option School, Lessons & Playbook. Imagine 'swim lessons' would also be helpful but given the time difference I won't be doing any of those anytime soon.

I'm not in any positions yet, though I've got a few scenarios in my mind.
Price closing below the 1.033 line on my chart, this would signal a strong sell. (A scale in approach since price could be a little bitch and pull a trick.)
Price not closing below said line. This would signal a small buy signal until price starts fighting with the upper DTL. The more they fight, the stronger price becomes, I think...

Price is already below that line, but this could be a trick. We've already seen one just a few hours ago.

Jplazard, you have some good levels. I can always see the logic in your levels. Certainly think for yourself.

do u close it? do u?

not pretty much as Triangle