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  • #8,481
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:45am Sep 10, 2012 3:45am
Quoting rsg10z
ok thank you but how do you know the trend definition is long?

honestly I cant read that from a H4 timeframe (it seems like going up though from D1)

i still have much to learn
Hi rsg10z
Thraz doesn't know that it won't fall from here but in terms of his rules and definition the trend is long (most probably above the ma or D crossed up or LH LL trend broken i.e. pa) so he's not prepared to sell against his rules.

Have a look at the middle and to the right of Thraz's chart and the series of arrows down generally forming lower highs and lower lows for a clear downtrend. The move up in 1 go blew out several of those lower highs to break the downtrend cycle.
  • #8,482
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:46am Sep 10, 2012 3:46am
Quoting rsg10z
ok thank you but how do you know the trend definition is long?

honestly I cant read that from a H4 timeframe (it seems like going up though from D1)

i still have much to learn
I use EMAs for trend determination, not the SHI channels so I deviate a bit from the original X-Man's approach... Anyway, when my EMA is rising it is long, when it is sloping down it is short. I highly recommend dcginc's homepage (www.protradernetwork.com) to visit I found some ideas there.

take care,
thrax
  • #8,483
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:57am Sep 10, 2012 3:57am
Quoting Vantage
You will more often than not get 2 (max 3) tdi crosses a week from 4hr. That implies that moves last 2-3 days. So using 1hr after 4hr has crossed may give more opportunites to enter the move. From either when 4hr crosses for 1st time (quite likely 1hr co-incides also crossing at close of 4hr candle) or from re-entry on 1hr over the next couple of days.

Basically trading against a 4hr cross at your peril, unless you have other good reason. Trend is time frame dependent so you can be trading 4hr/1hr when D has not yet crossed. The 1hr may signal...
Hi Vantage,

thnx for your suggestion. I will try to use that D+H1 approach as it seems to more likely happened than H4+H1. For me H4 + H1 is confusing because I think trend will start from lower TF to form trend in higher TF. But also I know that we should identify the trend in higher TF to filter trade in lower TF.

Hopefully that D+H1 give me a less confusing chance to jump in a trade....
  • #8,484
  • Edited 4:07am Sep 10, 2012 3:59am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting Vantage
You might want to consider crosses on D + 4hr +1hr (or D + 1hr) as trend and 4hr + 1hr as counter trend.
To be more specific once D has crossed that move could easily last 3-6 weeks. Numerous chances to sell 1hr.

Lets say D crossed down, you'd be looking for sells. Good 1hr signals i.e. engulfing candles closing below recent prices, or negative closes down from proven support/resistance areas would generally be high prob trades in trend.

Looking at Thraz's 4hr chart above. Check yourself where D chart crossed lower in relation to the 4hr move that occurred and focus on either 4hr or 1hr sells in line with D cross lower.

Will following the D mean you miss some successful counter trend trades, sure. You have to then check on how many losing trades it avoids.
  • #8,485
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:05am Sep 10, 2012 4:05am
Quoting eth3onstock
Hi Vantage,

thnx for your suggestion. I will try to use that D+H1 approach as it seems to more likely happened than H4+H1. For me H4 + H1 is confusing because I think trend will start from lower TF to form trend in higher TF. But also I know that we should identify the trend in higher TF to filter trade in lower TF.

Hopefully that D+H1 give me a less confusing chance to jump in a trade....
You are right WHEN trend truely changes you will trace its change back to lowest possible time frame. But on lower TF's you're going to get lots of false signals until the correct one comes through.

You'll have more chance with entries CT when market is ranging (as it has generally done for last 3 months) than on a true trend when you'll get many failed CT signals.
  • #8,486
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:14am Sep 10, 2012 4:14am
Quoting Vantage
To be more specific once D has crossed that move could easily last 3-6 weeks. Numerous chances to sell 1hr.

Lets say D crossed down, you'd be looking for sells. Good 1hr signals i.e. engulfing candles closing below recent prices, or negative closes down from proven support/resistance areas would generally be high prob trades in trend.

Looking at Thraz's 4hr chart above. Check yourself where D chart crossed lower in relation to the 4hr move that occurred and focus on either 4hr or 1hr sells in line with D cross lower.

Will following the...
Hi again, Vantage

do you mean i can just use TDI cross on D for my trend guidance? or i also have to consider the EMA60/EMA200 etc as well... Because sometimes TDI cross up but the price is below EMA60/EMA200 which is in H1 i wouldn't take the setup considering it's a CT and i have no confidence to trade CT yet.....

thank you...
  • #8,487
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:25am Sep 10, 2012 4:25am
Quoting Vantage

Will following the D mean you miss some successful counter trend trades, sure. You have to then check on how many losing trades it avoids.
That is my reasoning for avoiding countertrend trades. According to my backtests it is more profitable to trade according to the current and higher TFs trend. On the other hand when the market is ranging (on a certain TF) a trendfollower strategy dos not offer to many trades. In this case you can switch to lower timeframes to find trend. For my the multiple TF analysis I always use the identified SR levels, too.

thrax
  • #8,488
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:37am Sep 10, 2012 4:37am
Quoting thrax
That is my reasoning for avoiding countertrend trades. According to my backtests it is more profitable to trade according to the current and higher TFs trend. On the other hand when the market is ranging (on a certain TF) a trendfollower strategy dos not offer to many trades. In this case you can switch to lower timeframes to find trend. For my the multiple TF analysis I always use the identified SR levels, too.

thrax
Hi Thrax, thnx for the sharing...
I also want to learn and develop my trading skill as a trend follower...
  • #8,489
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:43am Sep 10, 2012 4:43am
Quoting eth3onstock
Hi again, Vantage

do you mean i can just use TDI cross on D for my trend guidance? or i also have to consider the EMA60/EMA200 etc as well... Because sometimes TDI cross up but the price is below EMA60/EMA200 which is in H1 i wouldn't take the setup considering it's a CT and i have no confidence to trade CT yet.....

thank you...
TDI cross on D for trend guidance alone yes but (why is there ALWAYS a but) you need to back test what PA looks like on 1hr after D has crossed and satisfy yourself. Leave your 60 200 emas on 1hr whilst you are doing this. Compare D tdi cross with what emas are suggesting. Generally a D turn and cross of tdi will take 3-4 days to play out, usually enough time for pa to flip other side of 60 ema.

You shouldn't take why I (or anyone else says) as the right thing to do until you've checked and happy with concept.
  • #8,490
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:56am Sep 10, 2012 4:56am
Hi All,

here is the situation that use to confuse me.. please help me to check if my analysis is correct regarding to S3 rules...

Daily: TDI green price line point down, but still above red signal line. price on chart moving around EMA200/EMA60. But no HH APB bullish bar.... I take this as: uptrend is weakening

H4: TDI green price line crossed down. There are some APB bullish bar with lower high and lower low. Price seems bounce back, unable to clear break up from EMA200

H1: waiting for long signal that is when TDI green price cross up TDI red signal line. price has already above EMA60/EMA200.

What hesitates me is that trend in D1 seems weakening... should I stick to its uptrend or refer downtrend from H4? Feel free to comment my newbie-style analysis...

Thank you
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  • #8,491
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:08am Sep 10, 2012 5:08am
Quoting eth3onstock

What hesitates me is that trend in D1 seems weakening... should I stick to its uptrend or refer downtrend from H4? Feel free to comment my newbie-style analysis...

Thank you
You can't back test seems. Until you are more confident stick to set ups that have the odds in your favour and are confirmed (and you can back test).
  • #8,492
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:11am Sep 10, 2012 5:11am
Don't over look a court decision in Germany on Wed on the legality of EUR bail outs and other major events that could shake the EUR (should major anti EUR parties win). Can have an effect this week.
  • #8,493
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:27am Sep 10, 2012 5:27am
Quoting Vantage
Don't over look a court decision in Germany on Wed on the legality of EUR bail outs and other major events that could shake the EUR (should major anti EUR parties win). Can have an effect this week.
This is really the challenge trading EU this week.
Now hovering around 1.2800. If early move up to 1.3000 before Wednesday court decision, I will make a guess when the decision is out.

Trade Well Folks!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,494
  • Sep 10, 2012 9:11pm Sep 10, 2012 9:11pm
Hi S3 traders,

I need your opinion about last night trades. I was waiting for price to bounce back up from EMA60. So NYO + 1hour I saw a pullback APB and an hour later I took a long position when TDI was still forming a cross up. H4 was also showing bullish APB with TDI green price line getting flat instead of pointing down.

But there were only 2 APB bullish bar, then another pullback and this time price going down. Since I don't trade CT, I didn't take this setup. I considered this CT because price still above EMA60 in H1 chart. But when I measured the trend result this morning, the downtrend can give me profit while the uptrend only left me with a stop loss.

What's wrong with the long setup? Could it be because it was too close to London session close?

Please help me sharing your opinion. Really appreciate it. Thank you.
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  • #8,495
  • Edited 9:55pm Sep 10, 2012 9:51pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting eth3onstock
Hi S3 traders,

I need your opinion about last night trades. I was waiting for price to bounce back up from EMA60. So NYO + 1hour I saw a pullback APB and an hour later I took a long position when TDI was still forming a cross up. H4 was also showing bullish APB with TDI green price line getting flat instead of pointing down.

But there were only 2 APB bullish bar, then another pullback and this time price going down. Since I don't trade CT, I didn't take this setup. I considered this CT because price still above EMA60 in H1 chart. But when I...

Hi eth,

since you are trading AUDUSD and you can trade the Asian session, you do not need to wait for LO for this aussie pair.

I suggest you follow Big E ' TMS method on H4. Entry on the first 2 APB candle changed colour and confirm with TDI cross. Go for the first 30 ~50pips and manage your each trade according to the price action

Try not to analyse too much into market condition orgerwise you will find more reasons not to take a trade than to find a good potential setup. There is no perfect setup. More back-testing will tell you how this market behaves.

Since you look at D charft, for this AUDUSD draw the fibo ratracement for last week low-high.
Ask yourself, is a fib-r to 38% to 50% enough to for a trade decision taken on H4 setup as mention above? Back-test and you will find many of such setup condition on H4. It depends a lot more on how you manage and not so much on your entry.

For other major pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF I would wait for LO and NYO becasue we need to see the increase in liquidity and volatility to trade the S3 H1 method.

Asian session has other trade opportunties AUD, NZD and JPY pairs.

Trade Well!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,496
  • Sep 10, 2012 10:53pm Sep 10, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi eth,

since you are trading AUDUSD and you can trade the Asian session, you do not need to wait for LO for this aussie pair.

I suggest you follow Big E ' TMS method on H4. Entry on the first 2 APB candle changed colour and confirm with TDI cross. Go for the first 30 ~50pips and manage your each trade according to the price action

Try not to analyse too much into market condition orgerwise you will find more reasons not to take a trade than to find a good potential setup. There is no perfect setup. More back-testing will tell you how...
Hi Emmanuel, thnx for your quick response...
Right now I trade 3 pairs: AU, EU and GU but only from LO to LC (is it the correct term for London close?) because it will be my sleeping hour after that

Will try to learn more about TDI also. Have just thought that TDI MBL perhaps can help me avoid trend change so I can find the better setup.
  • #8,497
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:02am Sep 11, 2012 2:02am
with a very strong Frankfurt open candle ... anyone want to Long EU now when LO?

"sell high, buy low"...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,498
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:10am Sep 11, 2012 2:10am
Giving the fact that we're not in normal market conditions. There is masive buying of the eur/usd . Yesturday would have been expected to have a nice retracements after fridays rally, but there was none. That ment to me that the retracement maybe was finished. Giving this mornings strong H1 candle I went long at 1.2800
  • #8,499
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:59am Sep 11, 2012 2:59am
Quoting kaunasny
Giving the fact that we're not in normal market conditions. There is masive buying of the eur/usd . Yesturday would have been expected to have a nice retracements after fridays rally, but there was none. That ment to me that the retracement maybe was finished. Giving this mornings strong H1 candle I went long at 1.2800
you are quite right... the retracement after Friday rally is shallow.

1.2800 is now the 'battle line'.

I wont be surprised if it move higher to 1.3000. Let the PA show the way later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #8,500
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:45am Sep 11, 2012 4:45am
Quoting emmanuel7788
you are quite right... the retracement after Friday rally is shallow.

1.2800 is now the 'battle line'.

I wont be surprised if it move higher to 1.3000. Let the PA show the way later.
Not in either several reasons first we had a move up to W M3/1.2815 previous SR level 21/22 May, then price chopped above/below the RN (I hate that with a passion). If we had a nice pa wave above RN that would be a different story and a buy I'd consider.

We'll see what US session brings but for now its looking more and more like the German court decision is keeping big boys on the sidelines.
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