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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #9,241
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:34pm Sep 7, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting chiknthief
Its on just the aussie without the US dollar in the mix. (Australian dollar futures)............. Here's the caveat : the US dollar index COT is also extreme bearish by the commercials too. Might skew the AUD/USD pair as they both head south. Hmmmmmm ! Something to consider.
I commented this to you a while ago but you didn't reply about it.

So I'm posting it again with the link to Kathy Lien's article (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp#axzz25o24vsuC):

Quote
Using the COT Report
In using the COT report, commercial positioning is less relevant than noncommercial positioning because the majority of commercial currency trading is done in the spot currency market, so any commercial futures positions are highly unlikely to give an accurate representation of real market positioning. Noncommercial data, on the other hand, is more reliable as it captures traders' positions in a specific market. There are three primary premises on which to base trading with the COT...
  • #9,242
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:42pm Sep 7, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting chiknthief
Its on just the aussie without the US dollar in the mix. (Australian dollar futures)............. Here's the caveat : the US dollar index COT is also extreme bearish by the commercials too. Might skew the AUD/USD pair as they both head south. Hmmmmmm ! Something to consider.
Hmm ... Aussie down, Dollar down ... Euro 1.30?
  • #9,243
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:13pm Sep 7, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting doblece
I commented this to you a while ago but you didn't reply about it.

So I'm posting it again with the link to Kathy Lien's article (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp#axzz25o24vsuC):

Thats true 'to an extent'. When commercials reach a 12 month extreme its time to pay attention. Even in the currencies. After all, the BIGGEST GUNS of all are the commercials. They don't speculate. Market sentiment is one of the best indicators of speculative interests. It charts the bullishness of the speculators. Over 75% bullish - SELL...............Less than 25% bullish - BUY. I can't seem to find a market sentiment chart for free. Maybe you can find one.
  • #9,244
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:26pm Sep 7, 2012 1:26pm
I wish the forex brokers would provide a market sentiment indicator. What a great way for the contrarians to 'fade' the retailers !!!
  • #9,245
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:43pm Sep 7, 2012 1:43pm
Here's an old outdated chart of Jake Bernsteins DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) You can plainly see it can be a valuable tool.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dsi1.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #9,246
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:43pm Sep 7, 2012 1:43pm
I am attaching a sentiment indicator..found it in my collection of indicators. Let us know if its the correct one
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Symphonie_Sentiment_Indikator.mq4   4 KB | 328 downloads
Be the change that you want to change
  • #9,247
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:17pm Sep 7, 2012 2:17pm
I sometimes give a look here, it is realtime data based on live accounts of many brokers, and yes 99% of the time retails are heavily against the market, right now 82% of retails have short positions on the pair, with an average price of 1.0270.
Hopefully somebody gain a good profit from this week market action
Have a good weekend everybody

forgot to paste the link:
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
  • #9,248
  • Sep 7, 2012 6:05pm Sep 7, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting chiknthief
Thats true 'to an extent'. When commercials reach a 12 month extreme its time to pay attention. Even in the currencies. After all, the BIGGEST GUNS of all are the commercials. They don't speculate. Market sentiment is one of the best indicators of speculative interests. It charts the bullishness of the speculators. Over 75% bullish - SELL...............Less than 25% bullish - BUY. I can't seem to find a market sentiment chart for free. Maybe you can find one.
Hmmm... but you seem to be saying the same as I am!

Market sentiment = Speculators = Large Speculators and Retail Traders on the COT chart. Where Commercials are Extreme Short (and the Index will start to reverse back up along with the Large Speculators and Retail Traders initiating the fall). So when Commercials start buying back, it's time to start selling ...

Maybe it's our different point of view: you see the commercials as reference when they already have been exhibiting the behaviour up/down to an extreme, I see the speculators as an early contrarian indicator when they start reaching the extremes. In the end, it's the same, but technically I have always heard and read that commercials didn't count much as they don't care where the price might be, they just perform the transactions when required by the normal day to day international currency exchange market.

Have a great weekend!

Here's again the COT chart with comments.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT-09-06-2012.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #9,249
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:12pm Sep 7, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting i_vanl
A1. I use daily, H4 and H1 TFs.
A2. Daily for longer term trades and H1 for short term trades. H4 for trend confirmation.
Welcome i_vanl. Thanks for your contribution to the survey. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,250
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:16pm Sep 7, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting doblece
Hmmm... but you seem to be saying the same as I am!


Attachment
Can we please have one for eur/usd?
  • #9,251
  • Edited 7:43pm Sep 7, 2012 7:24pm | Edited 7:43pm
Thanks for those who responded to the survey. I have compiled their responses to the survey below. Please bookmark this page for future reference. -DB-

Quoting DaddyBear
Announcement: (I will post this message often to get some information from our members.)

I am conducting a survey regarding the TF use. This is to help everyone trade better.

Q1. Which TF do you use mainly for entries and exits? [Only one TF]
Q2. What are your reasons? [Optional]

Thanks.

-DB-
Quoting gnomoneey
my system is on h4 entry and exit
i enter with pa, fib, tl, and or sar
Quoting DaddyBear
Although I watch all TFs, I use M15 to enter and exit trades. Its data is not too lagging behind like what happens to larger TFs. Also, the indicators are not too busy to read.
Quoting irfandbl
A1. M5
A2.
Quoting i_vanl
A1. I use daily, H4 and H1 TFs.
A2. Daily for longer term trades and H1 for short term trades. H4 for trend confirmation.
Quoting fxstir
Hello,

I really enjoy this thread but haven't posted many comments. I Thought I would help out by responding to your survey.

Q1. I mainly use H1 TF for entries and exits
Q2. I tend to stay in trades longer so I usually start with the Daily (sometimes weekly) to get the trend and look at PA on the H4. I use the S/R levels on the H4 and then look for opportunities on the H1.

Cheers,
fxstir
Quoting timster
1) I use 1 hour time frame as I'm more a longer term trader (however more often then I would like I break this rule!!)
2) I use Fibs, support & resistance and breaks of moving averages which are relevant to current trend.
Quoting nbhaya
Q1. H1 TFs
Q2. Not a full time trader and small account size
Quoting doblece
Q1: 5-minute charts in every case (either long-term or scalping)
Q2: Because I think it is the first micro-cycle to have a range wide enough to get into 10-20 pips trades when scalping, and where the market tick dance result is more easily viewable (it slows down the rhythm that can be observed on 5-sec/1-min --- "market tempo" ---) thus becoming its immediate trend.
Quoting foxybunny
Q1. Which TF do you use mainly for entries and exits? [Only one TF]
M15.

Q2. What are your reasons? [Optional]
The cycles/waves appears better in this timeframe if watching the screen the whole day.
Longer timeframes too long as the move was over when want to enter, and stop loss too far.
Shorter timeframes have tried were too noisy and too fast.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,252
  • Sep 7, 2012 8:30pm Sep 7, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome i_vanl. Thanks for your contribution to the survey. -DB-
You are welcome, DB. I enjoy reading this thread very very much with good views from all sides at different TFs.

Hi Everyone!
  • #9,253
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:40pm Sep 7, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Can we please have one for eur/usd?

Sure, here's the link:

http://timingcharts.com

  • #9,254
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:42pm Sep 7, 2012 9:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Thanks for those who responded to the survey. I have compiled their responses to the survey below. Please bookmark this page for future reference. -DB-
You forgot to add fudgey DT (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5991884#post5991884)
  • #9,255
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:45pm Sep 7, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting doblece
Sure, here's the link:

http://timingcharts.com

thanks mate
  • #9,256
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:57pm Sep 7, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting doblece
You forgot to add fudgey DT (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5991884#post5991884)
Mama, I made his "Fxxxxx" invisible.
daddybearforex. com
  • #9,257
  • Edited Sep 8, 2012 4:27am Sep 7, 2012 10:28pm | Edited Sep 8, 2012 4:27am
Quoting doblece
Hmm ... Aussie down, Dollar down ... Euro 1.30?
I was just guessing out of the blue as I hadn't even seen the Euro charts.

However, after analysis on Daily, seems quite probable (O_O) so I am adding a chart for the Yooroh guys

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 1.30 - aussie thread.png Size: 80 KB





(@DaddyBear=)
  • #9,258
  • Sep 8, 2012 4:32am Sep 8, 2012 4:32am
Quoting ibram.forex
thanks mate
You're very welcome!
Chart above might interest you, as well.
  • #9,259
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:28am Sep 8, 2012 10:28am
How's your weekend so far guys? Hope everyone is having a good one
  • #9,260
  • Sep 8, 2012 3:23pm Sep 8, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting irfandbl
How's your weekend so far guys? Hope everyone is having a good one
You too, oh Grand Magician and Ball Reader!


(my week-end is presently a mix of 25%, 50% (no icon for hard work, LOL) and 25% ... Quite balanced, huh?)
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