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  • #9,221
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:12am Sep 7, 2012 10:12am
[quote=chiknthief;5994682]
Quoting dab

Sorry, I thought you were just another naysayer after all the evidence on the charts confirmed the August - 1st part of september bear cycle. It pissed off a lot bulls.

Happy pips. Dab
Glad I could clear up any confusion. I never seek to attack others, everyone is entitled to there opinion and I for one believe that I can learn from others & hopefully help others learn too, even if it's from some of my mistakes.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #9,222
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:18am Sep 7, 2012 10:18am
The bear cycle wasn't scheduled to end until sept 13th - next week. It also has a history of being very choppy in the final stages. The market 'could' SLAMDUNK the bulls in the next week or two and then bottom out and start a longer term bull move then. Markets like to surge higher to run out the bears and then slamdunk lower to kill the bulls, just before a BIG move. Be very careful the next two weeks.

Another little tid bit about bear cycles - If it starts late and ends early - that could be construed as VERY BULLISH !!! Same thing in reverse with a bull cycle. Stay aware the next two weeks. ( Note : the China slowdown has a big effect on the aussie)
  • #9,223
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:20am Sep 7, 2012 10:20am
[quote=dab;5994721]
Quoting chiknthief

Glad I could clear up any confusion. I never seek to attack others, everyone is entitled to there opinion and I for one believe that I can learn from others & hopefully help others learn too, even if it's from some of my mistakes.
For me is all about sharing, I look and read what people post and take from it what I can and in return I try to share what I have learnt.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #9,224
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:33am Sep 7, 2012 10:33am
[quote=dab;5994721]
Quoting chiknthief

Glad I could clear up any confusion. I never seek to attack others, everyone is entitled to there opinion and I for one believe that I can learn from others & hopefully help others learn too, even if it's from some of my mistakes.

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT : You must learn to enjoy being WRONG if you wanna trade the markets. Now don't that sound about as bass ackwards as it gets? Lol !

When you have a losing trade, your position was too big. When you have a winning trade, your position wasn't big enough. Or I shoulda got out earlier than I did or vise versa, I shoulda waited longer and pocketed more profit. Or my stop was in the wrong place. On and on it goes where we are rarely ever right.

So throw the - 'I have to be right' ego thing under the bus and still make money without having to be right. Enjoy being wrong as you make money. Thats whats important.
Happy pips even if you aint exactly right.
  • #9,225
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:33am Sep 7, 2012 10:33am
[quote=Robot Trader;5994766]
Quoting dab

For me is all about sharing, I look and read what people post and take from it what I can and in return I try to share what I have learnt.

Thanx RT !!! Happy pips !!!
  • #9,226
  • Edited 10:53am Sep 7, 2012 10:38am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting chiknthief
The bear cycle wasn't scheduled to end until sept 13th - next week. It also has a history of being very choppy in the final stages. The market 'could' SLAMDUNK the bulls in the next week or two and then bottom out and start a longer term bull move then. Markets like to surge higher to run out the bears and then slamdunk lower to kill the bulls, just before a BIG move. Be very careful the next two weeks.

Another little tid bit about bear cycles - If it starts late and ends early - that could be construed as VERY BULLISH !!! Same thing in reverse...
Indeed.
I would even say earlier.
Look at the COT ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT-09-06-2012.PNG Size: 44 KB


... and a HbD on Daily charts as well ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HBD-09072012-AUDUSD.PNG Size: 325 KB
  • #9,227
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:39am Sep 7, 2012 10:39am
For golders. (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5959887#post5959887)

Gold almost jumped in one leap from 1700 to 1750, now it's hanging just a bit below. I don't think it will actually hit 1750 by the end of the day, but I can see it certainly trying.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #9,228
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:46am Sep 7, 2012 10:46am
Quoting doblece
Indeed.
I would even say earlier.
Look at the COT ...
WOW - looks like the commercials are extremely BEARISH while the public is extremely BULLISH. Thats a BIG wide open alligator mouth, Doblece. When it starts closing - LOOK OUT !!!
  • #9,229
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:52am Sep 7, 2012 10:52am
Quoting GnarlyPips
For golders. (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5959887#post5959887)

Gold almost jumped in one leap from 1700 to 1750, now it's hanging just a bit below. I don't think it will actually hit 1750 by the end of the day, but I can see it certainly trying.

Back in may, june, july and the first half of august the gold spring was winding up real tight building up lots of energy just waiting to be unleashed. This looks like an EXPLOSION !!!
  • #9,230
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:55am Sep 7, 2012 10:55am
I remember reading a post yesterday saying this thread is unique. Many bears and bulls but all of them are friends! I can't recall who said that, am too lazy to scroll back.

Well indeed this thread is unique, realized it just now. Let me take a bow to everyone here
  • #9,231
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:59am Sep 7, 2012 10:59am
Quoting irfandbl
I remember reading a post yesterday saying this thread is unique. Many bears and bulls but all of them are friends! I can't recall who said that, am too lazy to scroll back.

Well indeed this thread is unique, realized it just now. Let me take a bow to everyone here
Thanx irfandbl - everybody likes that ball reader guru you post. Very good !!!
  • #9,232
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:01am Sep 7, 2012 11:01am
Calling all gamblers!! This is all about QE: gold, aussie, stock market. If for some reason Ben comes out next week and says "No QE period" all three would crash unmercifully. However, I am hoping he will reiterate his earlier statement of, "No QE...for now." I think he wants to wait until after the election. I still think that will cause this pair to drop 200 pips over a week or so. The big bet is, what if he said, "Unlimited Bond Buying!!" Aussie goes right back to 1.1 and gold to 2K. Place your bets...
  • #9,233
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:02am Sep 7, 2012 11:02am
Quoting chiknthief
WOW - looks like the commercials are extremely BEARISH while the public is extremely BULLISH. Thats a BIG wide open alligator mouth, Doblece. When it starts closing - LOOK OUT !!!
I for one will start looking to build a new short stack.
There's still a week's or so room to reach the extreme (you can see the top white line is not completely flat, still one step to go, which I think would be aiming at about 1.0450ish as an average ...

I'll reassess after today's and sunday/monday close. This run to 1.0400 was indeed too fast for a Friday (USD news was mixed so it's not totally risk off yet, despite the bad NFP).

But the risk-off also might be reflected in the huge Gold surge ...
(and Gold's stoch is flat while there's a much higher high = possible HbD here as well)
  • #9,234
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:04am Sep 7, 2012 11:04am
Quoting chiknthief
WOW - looks like the commercials are extremely BEARISH while the public is extremely BULLISH. Thats a BIG wide open alligator mouth, Doblece. When it starts closing - LOOK OUT !!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9YUYgOjbeY
  • #9,235
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:13am Sep 7, 2012 11:13am
Quoting irfandbl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9YUYgOjbeY

Now that there aint good !!!
  • #9,236
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:15am Sep 7, 2012 11:15am
Quoting doblece
I for one will start looking to build a new short stack.
There's still a week's or so room to reach the extreme (you can see the top white line is not completely flat, still one step to go, which I think would be aiming at about 1.0450ish as an average ...

I'll reassess after today's and sunday/monday close. This run to 1.0400 was indeed too fast for a Friday (USD news was mixed so it's not totally risk off yet, despite the bad NFP).

But the risk-off also might be reflected in the huge Gold surge ...
(and Gold's stoch is flat while there's a...

One thing nice about COT - it gives you plenty of time to prepare.
  • #9,237
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:29am Sep 7, 2012 11:29am
Quoting chiknthief
WOW - looks like the commercials are extremely BEARISH while the public is extremely BULLISH. Thats a BIG wide open alligator mouth, Doblece. When it starts closing - LOOK OUT !!!
Large speculators + retail topping up = boom-ba-da-boom splash boing ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alligator.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #9,238
  • Sep 7, 2012 11:40am Sep 7, 2012 11:40am
Quoting doblece
Large speculators + retail topping up = boom-ba-da-boom splash boing ...
Sure looks like the bulls are headed for disaster. Could be a few more weeks though. Never know for sure until the "boom-ba-da-boom splash boing" !!!
(Another look at the COT)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EF AUD.png Size: 12 KB
  • #9,239
  • Edited 12:24pm Sep 7, 2012 12:05pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting chiknthief
Sure looks like the bulls are headed for disaster. Could be a few more weeks though. Never know for sure until the "boom-ba-da-boom splash boing" !!!
(Another look at the COT)

Hmmm... your COT is scarier... as it would seem the descent has already started ... staircase is one step lower.
And it's the weekly, so prevalent over my daily but early telling. You chart shows at a much higher extreme on last week than the previous one and indeed this seems to be the turning point ... someone will make a parrilla soon !

We have a bearish divergence starting to form on 30-minute charts, barely starting, so it will need to propagate to the next higher TFs to confirm ... stoch is double-toppish on H1.

m30's FibSto-oL has reached former 2.00 level and is above 1.00 (readjusted 50 touch level).

As long as they aren't preparing a HUGE gap down for sunday open ... hmmm ...
  • #9,240
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:22pm Sep 7, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting doblece
Hmmm... your COT is scarier... as it would seem the descent has already started ... staircase is one step lower.
And it's the weekly, so prevalent over my daily but early telling. You chart shows at a much higher extreme on last week than the previous one and indeed this seems to be the turning point ... someone will make a parrilla soon !
Its on just the aussie without the US dollar in the mix. (Australian dollar futures)............. Here's the caveat : the US dollar index COT is also extreme bearish by the commercials too. Might skew the AUD/USD pair as they both head south. Hmmmmmm ! Something to consider.
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